Best Pick
Air Force +3.5 - despite this game going into overtime Air Force was moving the ball with ease on Colorado, but they kept shooting themselves in the foot with 3 turnovers in Colorado territory that would have led to points. In fact there were a total of 5 fumbles in the game (3 by Colorado, 2 by Air Force), and Air Force did not recover any of them. They still led 23-10 in the 4th before allowing Colorado to push the game to OT where they fortunately came up with a victory. This is the best Air Force team I've seen in a while, and they were pretty balanced 7/12 155 yards passing as they outgained Colorado 444 to 325. I felt like they dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball which is not supposed to happen with a service academy, but Air Force I believe is allowing bigger guys to be in the Air Force which has helped their football team.
Worst Pick
Our one true loser on the spread was Texas State +17.5
Bad Beat of the week
Iowa State ML - was hoping for a 3 earlier in the week and then the 2.5 that would have cashed moved to 1.5, and I decided to take it money line, and IOwa State loses by 1 point, but they should have won this game. They outgained Iowa 418 to 313, but just had far too many mistakes whether it was several dropped interceptions. I saw the ball go off 3 defenders hands which would have changed this game completely. The fumble in Iowa territory, the fumble at the end of the game on special teams with Iowa State's own guy running into the returner, the two weather delays all probably would have changed the final in this game had they gone the other way.
The bet I regret:
Easily Kansas. They won by 24 on the road as a 20.5 point dog. Funny, if this ever got to 21.5 I was going to be a buyer. Also, probably would have bet it if Kansas hadn't lost to Coastal Carolina the week before, who I bet in week 1 as my POD. The ACC thus far looks awful. NC State lost big at West Virginia, Florida State hasn't looked good in both out of conference games. Syracuse got trucked by Maryland who got beat by Temple. Virginia Tech barely got by Furman as a 24 point favorite and is 0-3 ATS, Georia Tech lost to Citadel as a 27 point favorite at home and Clemson really hasn't looked good. This conference is definitely going to be one to fade come bowl season.
MISLEADING FINALS:
Kansas State upset Miss State 31-24 as a TD dog on the road, but this team did not play well. They had 4 fumbles in the game and lost 3, but Miss State also had 3 turnovers. They were outained on the day by 83 yards, and they were only 3-10 on third down. 31 points looks great in the box score but this offense was anything but great with just 269 yards and they benefited from a 100 yard kickoff return in the 4th, that tied the game. Miss State will host Kentucky who is off an emotional loss to Florida as a 6 point favorite, line opened up at 7.5, but I can't back Kentucky after the way they lost that game. PASS
Alabama beat South Carolina 47-23, and they just missed covering the spread. This is misleading, because Alabama was actually outgained on the ground 135 to 76, which is a major red flag. They also allowed a true freshman to throw for 324 yards, as South Carolina had 5.27 yards per play. This game was much closer than the final as South Carolina was 2-4 on 4th down, and -2 TO Margin. Alabama plays another cup cake in Southern MIss, while South Carolina goes to play Missouri. I never like backing a team the week after Alabama, and Missouri had an easy game winning 50-0. PASS
Minnesota just got by Georgia Southern 35-32, but they nearly doubled their yardage, and had a 22-12 First down edge. Georgia Southern benefited from a blocked FG returned 77 yards which was a 10 point swing, and a 44 yard fumble recovery for a TD another 7-10 point swing. So the game went from being 34-20 possibly to a 32-28 lead for Georgia Southern. That was a tough spot for Minnesota coming back from Fresno I definitely think they are going to be a buy team moving forward.
Michigan State upset at home as a 15.5 point favorite to Arizona State, a team playing a lot of young players right now. This final was misleading because Michigan State had a 23-14 first down edge, and 404-216 yardage edge. They just had far too many penalties 10 for 91 yards, and their special teams did not play well enough to win, missed field goal at the end to tie it. I never liked Michigan State in the favorite role, and here they are a 9.5 point favorite on the road against Northwestern, LEAN NORTHWESTERN. Arizona State goes back home and is a 7.5 point favorite against Colorado. Normally I would fade a team like Arizona State after that game, because teams who have been outgained but won, are just 8-15 ATS the following week thus far this season. Unfortunately they play Colorado who have been outgained in all of their games this season.
North Texas outgained Cal on the road 329-278 and lost the game 23-17. Maybe Cal was hung over from beating Washington on the road the week before, but North Texas was also -2 in TO margin in this game otherwise they might have pulled the upset. Cal's offense has not looked good, they are in a dog role this week at an SEC Ole Miss, where they are going up against a couple of coordinators who were PAC 12 head coaches, I'll have to dig deeper, but I think there are some interesting story lines there. It's also an early game for Cal 9AM body clock, which I think that's why we see the line move from -1.5 at open to 2.5. If it gets above 3 I'll be a buyer on Cal. North TExas a 20 point favorite against UTSA, nothing for me there.
Wyoming, outgained again and they win the game by only 5 points against IDAHO. They led just 14-13 in the 4th when they broke an 80 yard TD Run to go up 21-13. Wyoming's offense is not very good, I need to go back and look at weaknesses of this defense to see if Tulsa matches up well this week as they are a 3.5 point favorite. I'd rather fade this Wyoming team when they are a favorite. No lean.
Other key takeaways:
Kansas, a team I said to watch went into BC at won by 24 as a 20.5 point dog. If this line ever got to 21.5 I was going to buy, but it never did.
North Carolina was domninated by Wake Forest, but I think it had something to do with North Carolina missing their Center, and starting CB, and playing 3 games in 13 days against quality opponents. Wake Forest got up 21-0 in that game, and let North Carolina back in as the Tarheels almost came back to steal the game. Wake covered, but I think that's a bad sign for them moving forward. Wake will host Elon this week with a road game at Boston College on deck where they'll be 4-0 and likely favorites. Meanwhile North Carolina opened as a 4.5 point favorite at home against App State, THis is the first time UNC is in the favorite role, but the line moving to 3, makes me thinking about taking the Tarheels only it's a major look ahead spot with Clemson on deck at home, PASS.
Oklahoma State, did not dominate Tulsa like they should have, and maybe it's because they were looking ahead to the game @ Texas, but if you can stop the running game of Oklahoma State you should dominate. Texas so far has been dominant at stopping the run allowing just 3.05 yards per carry in 3 games, the line which opened at 7 in favor of Texas is down to 5, if it keeps dropping I'll be a buyer on Texas. LEAN TEXAS
Central Florida dominated STanford and covered the spread by 8.5 points. Stanford really didn't have much for that game in my opinion with a ton of injuries on the offensive line, and a terrible travel spot. I'm not going to over react. I get UCF is still playing witht that chip on their shoulder, but now they go on the road to face PITT asa 12 point favorite, if that climbs to 14 I'll definitely be a buyer on PItt. However, I do remember playin Pitt last year and losing against UCF. Still I Lean pitt +14
BYU - back to back games win in OT. Teams in that role are 8-2 ATS dating back to 2010, so you would think the opposite. I really like the way this team has played. I think Zach Wilson is the real deal, but USC did have 3 turnovers in that game. BYU a 6 point dog vs. Washington which means only 1.5 points separat USC and Washington. I don't buy that. Washington doesn't turn the ball over and is far better coached than USC, Lean washington - BYU might be a public dog this week.
