Recap of my week - 4-4-1 ATS with unfortunate losers on Texas and Texas State, my two biggest losers, which should have won. Texas dropped a wide openTD in the first half that really cost them in this game. Texas State was a bad beat which we will get to in a moment.
Uconn +21.5. This was our free pick, Free college football picks are now 62-40 ATS over the last 102. Uconn got off to a 10-0 lead. While the 24 points given up in the second quarter were scary, they settled down again in the second half with a final of 31-23. Uconn's defense played pretty decent allowing just 357 yards, and they slowed the game down as I thought they would. If they didn't turn the ball over 3 times they might have won this game.
For the second week in a row going against Maryland was our worst pick. Syracuse +1.5, I really thought Syracuse defense was going to be able to be the reason Syracuse won, but I was completely wrong, and they really look like a mess at Syracuse right now. They gave up 650 yards in this game, but they did have 330 passing yards and DeVito was efficient, so I wouldn't really put too much stock into this 63-20 loss. I think the 27.5 home dog role they are in this week is too much against Clemson in a night game at the Carrier Dome,but after Syracuse looked sooo bad I don't know that I can step in front of that.
Bad Beat of the week
Texas State +7 , outgained Wyoming 444 to 293 yards, but had 3 turnovers, and 2 missed field goals. They even had a chance late to score a TD in the red zone but were unable to do so. Just another frustrating loss on our POD, with Coastal Carolina in week 1, both should have been winners, and would make our season look totally different right now, but I'm not concerned this is a long season, and we have been here before. Doing this for 14 years.
So let's recap week 1 the best way we know how. Misleading finals.
Kent State should have lost to Kennesaw State last week, a very good FCS team that runs an option attack. They were outgained by 100 yards, and Kennesaw had a 23-16 first down edge, but lost by 3. Despite this I thought Kennesaw State was a tough match up after traveling to Arizona State the week before, and now Kent State has to travel to play Auburn, the week before Auburn faces A&M, LEAN KENT ST +35.5
Nebraska was up 17-0 at the half and seemed to be cruising towards a victory, before they lose it in OT 34-31. 3 turnovers, did not help their cause, and the secondary gave up 375 yards passing. I think you'll start to see some people sell on Nebraska, because they didn't look great in week 1 either after everyone was so high on them. They'll play Northern Illinois at home this week who hung tight against Utah as 14 point favorites - PASS.
Charlotte loses at App State, but they out gained them 526 to 458, and had 24-16 first down edge on the road, but they lose 56-41. This was an ugly game as Charlotte was -2TO, and had 11 penalties. AppState had an 87, and 73 yard passing TD to go up 7-0, and 42-20, they also had a blocked punt returned for a TD to go up 28-13. Charlotte gets a huge bump and is a 18.5 point favorite moving to 19 against Umass, who got beat by 25 against Southern Illinois. PASS. I'm about selling high, and buying low.
Texas State vs. Wyoming We already touched on this game in the open as it was our POD, and ofcourse it had to be the most misleading final of the week. Texas State missed 2 field goals any one of those makes would have gotten us the cover, they haven't made field goal in 10 games!, They threw a pick 6, and had the ball on the 5 to end the game. Outgained Wyomign by 149 yards, and had +11 first downs. Wyoming is fraudulent, they play Idaho this week at home - no play for me, but Texas State is a lean at SMU. I would look at them on the money line LEAN Texas State +700
Buffalo outgained Penn State 429 to 357, but couldn't cover a 31.5 point spread. I can't look Buffalo this week to be honest as they are 5.5 point favorites on the road at LIberty, especially since MAC teams went 1-10 ATS last week. Penn State is a 17 point favorite at home this week against Pitt. I want to look at that game more. I think Pitt's defense is legit, and they should have beaten Penn state 2 years ago, and got crushed, and then they got crushed last year. The line is 17 and it will continue going up Lean Pitt +17.
OTHER GAMES AND WEEK 3 LEANS:
Cal upset Washington for the second year in a row, but this time at WAshington as a 14 point dog. I played Cal on the ML last year and was happy for the easy cover. That defense is legit, and now Cal is a 14 point favorite. I prefer that team in the dog role, although North Texas doesn't look like the same team as they were in the past. Possible hang over spot for Cal, but I still would think they should win this game by double digits, no official lean.
USC's Kedon Slovis looked better than JT Daniels, as USC cruised to a 45-20 win over Stanford. Stanford is not supposed to be good so I would not over react, as they were also breakin in a new QB. I see STanford is going East to face UCF AS A 7.5 POINT DOG, and I would lean Stanford. I don't see them being blown out in back to back weeks. USC meanwhile goes on the road to face BYU, and are back in the top 25, and a road favorite of 4.5 points. This is the exact role I like to fade Clay Helton in. BYU off a miraculous comeback in OT against Tennessee, but this team is not a team you have to worry about the hangover or let down with, as most of them are grown men. Lean BYU +4.5
This one almost made our misleading game reports. Miami out gained UNC, but lost by 3 at the end of regulation. Mack Brown goes into week 3 a dog against on the road at Wake Forest. He's now 2-0 SU & ATS as a dog. North Carolina seems to have enough talent, and I don't think wake Forest is very good on defense. That game will be back and forth, and I won't play North Carolina +3, if I"m playing them I'm playing them on the ML Lean UNC ML, I'm impressed by the freshman Sam Howell, through 2 games he has over 60% completions 4 TD's, and 0 INT's with >10 yards per attempt. Now he gets to face a weak defense in Wake Forest.
San Diego State won 23-14 at UCLA as a 7.5 point dog. I didn't really understand the spread, and I mentioned that on last week's podcast. I felt UCLA is going to struggle against teams that can stop the run, and San Diego State has been one of those teams every year. I stayed away from a play because of how bad San Diego State looked in week 1, and UCLA had extra time, but they held UCLA to 62 rushing yards, and forced 2 turnovers. It's really the key to beating UCLA. However, I do think there is value on UCLA moving forward when they face a team that can't stop the run. I don't respect DTR's passing ability. Now this week they face Oklahoma who may be suspect against the run - giving up 241 yards to Houston, and a mobile QB, but I don't know that I can back UCLA as a 23 point dog with how fast Oklahoma plays and can score. Pass.
Oregon seemed pretty pissed off about losing the week before to Auburn and took it out on Nevada winning 77-6. Oregon gets MOntana this week, followed by Stanford, nothing really to fade in my opinion, but I don't think Oregon is that good. Auburn did not play well against Tulane this past week making their loss to Auburn look worse.
Texas vs. LSU - easily the game of the week that lived up to the hype. Each team had over 500 yards, and each QB played a hell of a game. I was impressed with TExas ability to get to the QB. We did give out Texas +6.5 late, and I wish I bought that half point. We honestly should have covered in my opinion. Texas RB Keaontay Ingram dropped a wide open TD from 3 yards out on 4th down in the beginning of the game that really changed momentum. LSU turned around and scored a TD for a 14 point swing. LSU also converted on 3rd and 17 late in the game and converted on a 2 point conversion after to go up 14 or we should have covered. Texas has a major flat spot this week against Rice who loves to slow the game down as they average just 60 plays per game, Anything over 30 points seems hard to cover, and Texas has Oklahoma State on deck. I would lean Rice, but their starting QB is out for this game with a concussion.
Iowa dominated Rutgers, as they should winning 30-0. Iowa will now go on the road and face Iowa State, for the in state rival that continues to get closer each year.. It was 3-13 last year, and 41-44 the year before. The difference in 2019 in my opinion is Iowa State needed OT to beat Northern Iowa in week 1 and has had a bye before this game. I think getting a bye in week 2 is huge for a team like Iowa State to regroup and fix things before arguably their biggest game of the year, and now Iowa is ranked after a hot start 2-0 SU and ATS, which has moved this line all the way to 2.5 and +3 -115, a 4 point move for what reason? I think we are getting value on Iowa State the only thing that has changed is that Iowa State is no longer ranked in the AP poll and Iowa is. Lean Iowa State +2.5
Army nearly upset Michigan and probably should have had they kicked the field goal in regulation or if they don't throw an interception down on the goal line up 14-7, and kick a field goal instead. I still applaud Jeff Monken's agressive mentality on the road against a P5 Top 10 team. I think Michigan is in trouble, and I'm wondering when JIM Harbough is going to take away play calling from Josh Gattis. So far it looks like the offense has regressed, they luckily get a bye this week, and will head into Wisconsin next week as a 3 point dog. Pass at the moment. I"m not going to over react to the Army game. It was a sloppy game, and Oklahoma had the same trouble last year and they still went on to win the college football playoff. In fact Oklahoma went on to beat Baylor 66-33 following the Army game.
Clemson vs. Texas A&M I heard was a boring game,so I'm not too upset I missed it. Had a "house warming" party to go to. I'm looking forward to being able to watch games for 15 hours on Saturday with nothing on the schedule this weekend.