Recap of my week - 4-9 ATS on the season -16.4%. Had some bad beats I thought, and many of those losses that could have gone either way to be honest, but like we do every week we will go over the best pick, and worst pick, bad beat of the week.
- Best PickWisconsin -10.5I got the best #, and my handicap seemed spot on as Wisconsin dominated winning 49-0. The defense seemed to be back giving up just 157 total yards.Worst PickHoward +30, this was our free pick, but it was the pick we were the furthest off. Maryland simply wanted to flex their muscles and they were able to do so winning 79-0. I think it's pretty crazy that after opening as a 2.5 point dog they are now 2 point favorites against Syracuse. On the flip side Syracuse did not look good. So I'll talk about that later in the show, but I think Syracuse has some line based off week 1 results.Bad Beat of the weekCoastal Carolina +6, which was our PLAY OF THE DAYCoastal was covering this game for most of the game, the biggest issue was turnovers as Coastal Carolina threw 4 interceptions. They outgained Eastern Michigan by 87 yards, and were +6 minutes in time of possession, but were unable to win or cover the spread as we lost the game by 1 point ATS.Update on coaching P5 & G5 tracking and leans for week 2Power 5 Coaches - Last 4 years all 1st year head coaches as a dog went 107-135 ATS 55.7%, taking out what I consider to be the elite coaches, and those records are much better as those top tier coaches have great records as dogs. Here is a reminder of the coaches we have mentioned in this role the last two years.Top tier 1st year coaches (backing as a dog) -Kirby Smart, Tom Herman, Josh Wilcox, Matt Campbell, Justin Fuente went 23-10 ATS as a dog, and 2018 Dan Mullen, Scott Forst, JImbo Fisher and Chip Kelly went 15-8 ATS. This year - Ryan Day, Manny Diaz, Neal Brown, Mack Brown, Scott Satterfield and Les Miles - back them as dogs. Mack Brown won as a dog outright already, and I mentioned him on the podcast. 39-18 ATS the last 3 years.This week North Carolina +4.5 vs. Miami (2 coaches on the list),West Virginia +14 @ Missouri, both played like shit in week 1.Coaches we are fading in the dog role include 0-1 ATS this year as Georgia Tech did not cover.Maryland, Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Colorado. This week Colorado +3.5 against Nebraska. Nebraska looked bad this past week so I think we are also getting a bit of line value here, but I still don't know if I play it here. Mel Tucker could be a borderline "elite coach"Update AP top 10 - and leans for week 2We recommend taking out the top tier coaches and again Georgia, Clemosn, Alabama covered despite being in the AP TOP 10 and they went 3-0 ATS, while the rest went 2-5 ATS. Again as a reminder over the last 7 seasons only 28 teams (40%) had a winning record over the first 3 weeks if they ranked in the AP TOP 10. I would add LIncoln Riley to the mix of those top 4 teams as he has consistently proven he's a top tier coach with a top tier program. - So we will look to fade/track Ohio State, Michigan -22.5 vs. Army, Florida -41 vs. TN Martin, Notre Dame (bye), Texas & LSU facing each other. Leaning towards Texas, because of Tom Herman being a great coach.Week 1 2-5 ATS for teams we are considering fading. I took Clemson/Alabama/Georgia out of the mix as they have elite coaches, I also take Lincoln Riley and Oklahoma out of this as he has proven enough.Group of 5 teams 1st year HCBack head coaches in first year as a dog are 160-139 ATS as a dog 53.5%. I'm chery picking top tier coaches. And listed the following teams to back/fadeBACK: Temple, Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Liberty, Liberty was the only team as a dog - laost 24-0 as a 19.5 point dog. Liberty - +13 Lafayette, CMU +35 @ Wisconsin, all leans this week.Fading steam moves on favorites - coming back in on the dog.10-1 ATS fading steam favorites with line moving up 3+ points from open. I looked back and it's 23-10 ATS the last 3 years. I'll make sure I note that for next year. More on this later in the week when we look at week 2 possibilities.So let's recap week 1 the best way we know how. Misleading finals.Have to start with Ohio State vs. Florida Atlantic. FAU covered the spread, but this is one of the more fraudulent scores of the weekend as 45-21 final was not at all indicative of the final score. Ryan DAy clearly put the offense away after a big lead. The 1st 7 drives OHio State 200 yards, FAU -12, and it was Ohio State 28-0 in the first quarter. The next 22 drives Ohio State 269 yards to FAU 240,FAU 21-17. What does it mean? FAU may be overvalued and Ohio State undervalued, which is hard to imagine, but I can see it in this week's lines as FAU is a 9 point dog at home to UCF, which has moved to +10, Ohio State, a 17 point favorite at open down to 15.5 at onebook against in state rival Cincinnati. NO LEANSBYU loses to Utah again 30-12, not covering the spread by 13 points. THis game was much closer than the final as Utah was only -68 total yards, but -3 TO's and gave up 2 defensive TD's. This was a 9-6 ball game at the half and then Utah just wore them out. Utah this week is a 22 point favorite at home against Northern Illinois, which to me seems like a lot. Northern Illinois with a new coaching staff, which I like, and they are a 3+ TD dog. LEAN N. Illinois +22, BYU will go on the road to face Tennessee.Tennessee lost to Georgia State at home as a 24.5 point favorite. Tenn had poor turnover luck as Georgia State recovered 3 of the 4 fumbles. Tennessee did outgain Georgia State by 52 yards, but were also 0-2 on 4th down. I don't think the sky is falling, but I would have liked a little more value on Tennessee this week against BYU. I'll be watching this line this week closely. That was BYU's biggest game on the schedule against Utah. The last time they had to face a P5 opponent the following week they lost 40-6 at home, and this game is on the road. LEAN TennesseePurdue loses as a double digit favorite at Nevada despite outgaining them by 115 yards. Purdue had a 31-14 lead late in the 3rd quarter, but they went scoreless the rest of the way. They were -3 in turnover margin, but their QB Sindelar looked good otherwise as he passed for 400+ yards. However, it did not seem to me like Purdue got a downgrade as they are only 7 point favorites after a nearly 2 point move against Vanderbilt at open. I don't see value there, and Nevada a 23.5 point dog on the road against Oregon. No opinion their although I would like to bet against Oregon after what some would say is a season ending loss to Auburn in dramatic fashion. No leans.Colorado beat Colorado STate by 21 points in one of the more misleading finals of week 1. They were out gained by 20 yards in the game, and benefited from +4 TO margin as they were also -6 minutes in time of possession. Allowing 4.2 yards per carry to Colorado State could be an issue with Nebraska coming to town this week. Some int he media are now calling Colorado a sneaky candidate in the PAC 12. They'll host Nebraska who did not look great this week. They win by 14 but were outgained by South Alabama. South Alabama actually beat Miss State in 2016 21-20 on the road, Miss State home the next week against South Carolina as a 7.5 point favorite easily covering winning by 13. LEAN Nebraska if it gets to -3.Iowa State BARELY holds on against Northern Iowa 29-26 in 3 OT, but they did outgain them 463 - 262 yards. Northern Iowa benefited from a 53 yard fumble recovery in this one, and it seemed like Iowa State was simply going through the motions, but their defense looked as good as ever holding NOrthern Iowa to 1.1 ypc, and the passing game 5.4 yards per pass. Unfortunately Iowa State won't play until next week against Iowa.Fading steam moves on favorites - coming back in on the dog.10-1 ATS fading steam favorites with line moving up 3+ points from open. I looked back and it's 23-10 ATS the last 3 years. I'll make sure I note that for next year. More on this later in the week when we look at week 2 posibilities.. I'll get into them in greater detail on tomorrow's podcast when we go over week 1 notes, and injuries and week 2 value.Oregon State vs. Oklahoma State. Sanders looks like the real deal at QB for Oklahoma State, but it appears that Oklahoma State can't stop the run. Oregon State's offense moved the ball all night, and if it weren't for one bad quarter this game would have come down to the wire. Oklahoma State plays an FCS foe this week while Oregon State travels to Hawaii. LEAN Oregon State +6.5 HOPING FOR A +7.Boise State a 10.5 point home favorite after a great come from behind win down in Tallahasee. I'm very impressed by that win, but I'm not going to over react and early sharp money agrees as Marshall +12 down to +10.5. No leanPitt, just a 5.5 point favorite at home against MAC favorite Ohio. Pitt did not look good, ran the ball just 15x I think there is maybe conflicting issues between HC and OC here. I expect they might get back to the run this week.Virginia Tech 28 point favorite at Old Dominion - this is a revenge game as Old Dominion beat VA Tech last year in a major upset. Va Tech supposed to be better, and Old Dominion is supposed to be bad. LEAN VA TECH -28Maryland opened as a 2.5 poitn dog and is now a 2.5 point favorite against Syracuse I think this is an overreaction in the market as Maryland looked great, Syracuse looked bad in a cover. LEAN SYRACUSE +2.5 hoping for +3Texas A&M vs. Clemson. A&M already getting the action and the line 18.5 is down to 17. I expect sharp and public money on A&M, and JImbo Fisher has never lost to Clemson by more than 10 including last year at A&M. I don't know if I can buy in on A&M in this game, and if the line keeps dropping which I expect it to I may be a Clemson buyer.I live in Connecticut, and hard to excited about my home state football. Connecticut is a 20 point dog against Illinois, and the line has hit 20.5. I just don't see how Illinois could be a road favorite by this much, In fact it's the first time since 1991. LEAN UCONN +21UCLA was very disappointing in week 1 but they get extra time to prepare here, and I think people. I expected a smaller line, but San Diego State played like garbage in week 1. UCLA a 7 point home favorite in this one. The key is if you have a defense that can stop the run at all they can pull the upset on UCLA, because it's clear the QB can't pass, and the coach has no confidence that he can. SD St has always been able to stop the run.LSU vs Texas, is getting early money on LSU, and i don't know if I buy it. Both looked equally impressive, and you just can't go against Tom Herman as a dog. The line is climbing from 4.5 now to 6. LEAN TEXAS +6 or higherMinnesota nearly lost as a big favorite and now they are just 3 point road favorites against Fresno State. I have to look into this one more, but it seems to me like an over reaction as Fresno State covered against USC, ut did not look strong. LEAN Minnesota -3Stanford vs. USC. I would not touch this game with a 10 foot pole, but other than the major coaching advantage on Stanford's side line, there is major news as both USC and Stanford might be without their QB. USC's JT Daniels done for the season most likely.Week 2 leans per this podcast
- West Virginia +14
- Minnesota -3 if it gets there
- Liberty +13
- Central Michigan +35
- Northern Illinois +22
- Tennessee -3.5
- Nebraska -3
- Oregon State +7
- Pitt -6.5
- Virginia Tech -28
- Syracuse +25
- Uconn +21
- Texas MONEY LINE
