REMINDER ON FADING AP TOP 10- I had a podcast you can go back and listen to it, but basically taking out top tier coaches you do really well fading the preseason ap top 10. 60% ATS last year. The teams on my list this year are Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, Florida, Notre Dame and Texas as I mentioned in the podcast. These teams as home favorites only cover the spread 46% of the time over the last 7 years, and that includes top tier coaching of Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney. Blindly fading them in the 1st games you would go 56% ATS, and that's what we are concentrating on.
We already started it by fading Florida on Saturday by taking Miami +7.5. Of course that's not the only reason why we backed Miami. You can visit Freddywills.com and read my full in depth analysis at your leisure. Like I mentioned before this is just one way to narrow down games to look at. All of my plays are based off of a combination of factors that include my algorithms, industry analytics, situational analysis, and coaching/x's and o's.
Fade Ohio State w/ FAU +27.5 Saturday at Noon. I think we are in a sell high on Ohio State, and sell low on FAU after their season last year. This team did not let their foot off the gas when Ryan Day was coaching the first 3 weeks last year, so I'd be a little careful.
Fade LSU w/ Georgia Southern +27.5 Saturday 7:30. I will wait for a 28 likely to get involved, but LSU in my opinion could be looking forward to Texas. They have lost games like this outright in the fast - Troy as a 20 point favorite at home in 2017 under Ed Orgeron. Georgia Southern has 14 starters back this year, won double digit games, and beat App State.
Michigan +34 w/ Middle Tennessee Saturday @ 7:30pm. I'll admit I got some catching up to do on Middle Tennessee, but Michigan a big home favorite and a lot of buzz and this line has moved 4 points since opening at 30 based on public perception. I think you'd be crazy to take Michigan here.
Notre Dame -20 w/ Louisville +20 on MOnday at 8:00pm. Probably one of my favorites here, as Notre Dame is a road favorite. I need to dig in more, but I know many are expecting a much better year from Louisville, and the stock could not be any lower following a 2 win season.
Texas -20.5 w/ Louisiana Tech at +20.5. As great as Tom Herman has been as a dog he's been equally as bad as a favorite. Here Texas is getting more hype than they have had in a long time. LA Tech, a capable program against the POwer 5 in recent years. Worth a look considering Texas has LSU on deck, probably overlooking LA Tech, preparing for LSU, a game that means everything to their season and internal National Championship hopes.
Reminder fade 1st year non-elite HC P5 as a dog
L4 years all 1st year head coaches as a dog went 107-135 ATS fading produces 55.7%. However, taking out the elite coaches we do a lot better, the coaches I mentioned to take out Ryan DAy, Manny Diaz (already won as a dog), Neal Brown, and I even threw Mack Brown and Les Miles out there you may laugh but both guys have national championship rings, and are going to be heavy dogs all yeare with no expectations. So who are we fading as a dog this week?
Geoff Collins - Georgia Tech +36 at Clemson. His offense might not even score. I like the under more here, and think Dabo will take his foot off the gas with A&M on deck so likely not a play, but they could lose 42-0 easily.
All other coaches are favored this week. Worth mentioning that UNC AND MACK BROWN up to a 9.5/10 point dog against South Carolia Again the market is not buying on Mack Brown, and that is giving us line value after opening 7.5. I could wait for 10.5 and possilby buy
