Week #9 Misleading Finals
South Alabama loses 38-17 to Troy, during the week last week, and we were on this game, but on the wrong side. South Alabama actually had a 20% post game win probability, as they were only -25 yards, +12 % success rate, so where did they go wrong? They were -1 TO margin, and they were 2.83 points per opportunity compared to 6.33 for Troy. South Alabama goes on the road this week to face Arkansas State and they opened as a 17 point dog, which was quickly bet down to 15.5. Meanwhile Troy is a 10.5 point home favorite against LA Lafayette.
Georgia Tech looked like he dominated Virginia Tech 49-28 however they had only a 61% post game win probability. They were also -1 yard per play and only +8% success rate. Both offenses played well and Virginia Tech continues to struggle on the defensive side of the ball. If I am taking anything away from that game it's fading Georgia Tech if you get the right defense that can defend the triple option or back Virginia TEch who this week 2.5 point dog at home against Boston College who are coming off a huge win last Friday over Miami. Virginia Tech will have an extra day and are home for this game against BC. Georgia Tech tough spot going on the road against UNC for their second road game in a row and are 4.5 point favorites. I lean towards UNC.
LA TEch beat Florida Atlantic as an underdog, but they had post game win probability of 35%. This is misleading when you consider FAU was +18 yards, +5% success rate, +.79 yards per play but had a -2 TO margin. I mentioned before the season since FAU won 9 games last year ATS that they would automatically be a fade this year. Unfortunately I didn't listen to my own advice as they have gone 1-7 ATS. With that said if you were going to buy low on FAU now is the time. They are a 3.5 point dog at FIU, a team that is 6-2 ATS. For LA Tech I just love to back them as a dog, or on the road where they are 37-17 ATS in their last 54. They also play Miss State, and are 21 point dogs. Miss State has no business being a 21 point favorite over anyone, because their offense is just not that good. Miss State has Alabama on deck, LA Tech +21 a strong lean, they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. the SEC.
Kentucky beat Missouri 15-14, and I have already heard many people say how the hell did Kentucky win that game, and look it looked bad as they were down 14-3 in the 4th quarter, but they simply out played Missouri offensively, defensively and special teams. I get Kentucky's offense did not look good, but Missouri's front 7 actually matched up well, and I mentioned that when I gave out Kentucky +7.5 last week. This is misleading because people are calling it a non legit win, and they continue to disrespect this team. Kentucky outgained Missouri by 136 yards, they were +1.19 yards per play, they were also +10% success rate and they did all of this despite -1 TO margin. The big question is Kentucky celebrated that win pretty hard w/ Stoops getting into it as his players were hoisting him up in the locker room. I get it was a big win, but Missouri was winless in conference play. This week they'll host Georgia with a chance to take control of the SEC East. Initial lean is Georgia -9, but I'm not sure I can go there. Georgia has shown weakness in their front 7, and Kentucky has out played every SEC opponent at the line of scrimmage. If this was a night game I might just be calling for Kentucky to pull a crazy upset. However, my math models are telling me Georgia, and my heart is telling me Kentucky. I might just have to pass as it will be my 4th time backing Kentucky if I did it. For Missouri, they are garbage they'll go on the road to face Florida who I think is a far superior team. Missouri's Drew Lock is just an average QB when you look at his splits vs. Power 5 bowl teams he has 21 TD's and 28 INT's in his career. That did not improve against Kentucky last week who he threw for 165 yards 0 TD's and 0 INT's with only 6.1 yards per play.
San Diego State lost to Nevada despite a 87% post game win probability. They were +159 yards in this game, +1.42 yards per play, but -2 TO margin, and -9.4 yards in field position margin. San Diego STate a 10 point road favorite at New Mexico, a team that likes to slow the game down and run the balls o I don't know that there is value this week, but moving forward certainly.
Southern MIss lost 20-17 against Charlotte, despite a 92% win probability. They were +1.76 yards per play, +202 yards, +7% success rate, but -2 TO margin which there was a 79 yard interception taken back for a TD, which really was a 14 point swing early in this game. In a way you could say this boxscore is misleading, because Southern Miss was coming from behind all game long and Charlotte was just trying to run out the clock so of course their yardage would be more impressive here. Southern Miss a 3 point home dog this week against Marshall and the line was 3.5 at open with a large % of bets pointing to Marshall could be some value there.
TCU lost 26-27 over Kansas of all opponents despite a 96% post game win probability. They were +20% success rate, +197 yards +2.42 yards per play so this was certainly misleading final. Everyone will be tossing TCU in the trash and maybe it's legitimate as TO's have been a real problem. I'm not rushing to back TCU a team that is last in the nation in TO margin and this week they get Kansas State as 8 point favorites. TCU should crush Kansas State, and it's a math lean of mine, but it's still hard for me to go against Bill Snyder as a dog. TCU though is just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games. I will look to back TCU down the line for sure as their TO's certainly HAVE to regress.
OTHER MEANINGFUL GAMES:
Wisconsin loses at Northwestern, and Northwestern in the driver seat for the Big Ten West as shocking as that sounds they are. They really did nothing special in their 31-17 victory, and Wisconsin was playing without their starting QB so let's not over react. I love Northwestern as a dog, and gave them out at +4.5 to clients as a premium play. They'll be 9.5 point dogs at home against Notre Dame at night. They have to decide is this more important than the game ahead against Iowa and MInnesota that could get them to the Big Ten Championship game. I don't know how you'd look past Notre Dame, but Notre Dame is playing for something bigger and some would say Notre Dame will have about 80% of the crowd even though Northwestern is at home. I find that hard to believe, but we will certainly see.
Cal upset WAshington 12-10, and I gave Cal +375 out as a free pick. I hope most of you subscribe to my text/email alerts for free picks as they have gone 32-19 over the last 51. This is a separate play from my premium pick newsletter play which also cashed this past weekend. My analysis which is of course available and archived forever on the website I felt was spot on with Cal, and I was happy to see them hold on.
Look Cal was great, but as great as that was there was Florida +7 my play of the day which just have not panned out this year while I have dominated my free picks 7-3 my POD's have not done well and Florida was no exception. They got down 10-0 early because of poor QB play and in the second half it was all Georgia. Florida is not that far behind Georgia, and I felt had Florida not been -3 TO margin this game would have been much closer. Florida was also -15.9 yards in field position which was a huge factor in this game as that led to 9 scoring opportunities. Florida also without 2 starters in the secondary for the entire game as DB C.J henderson hurt his back on the first drive of the game. Overall I felt like Florida did well in the trenches and should have ran the ball more. Still don't think Georgia is as good as last year's team, but Jake Fromm looked much better in this game as he could make no wrong decision. They have a major test this week at Kentucky that they may not be taking seriously, because nobody has given Kentucky a chance to win that game.
Washington State defeated Stanford 41-38, as they were +54 yards .49 yards per play +1 TO margin. They were just the better team and this was very impressive by the Cougars, because they were in the ultimate let down spot following their win over Oregon in front of Game Day. I had a lean on Washington State last week and ultimately could not play it because it was just a horrible spot for them. However, I do feel like they are too big of favorites this week against Cal at home, a good defense. Washington State also might feel like they can take their foot off the gas a bit after two huge games you have to wonder if they can get up a third week in a row. Had Cal not beaten Washington this past week I would definitely have backed them here for me it's just a pass though.
Texas A&M was really disappointing this week as I gave them out in my teaser +7.5 that lost. A&M gave up several big passing plays from Nick Fitzgerald who threw some really nice passes. I can't believe I'm saying that, but they really were nice passes. A&M held to 293 yards were -11 % success rate -2.94 yards per play so it wasn't like it was just the big plays. Miss State clearly a top 5 or top 10 defense, and when they can mix in explosive pass plays with their running game are a dangerous team. A&M was off a bye and now they'll be a 4 point dog with sharp money already coming in on them at Auburn who is off a bye. Not really sure what I think about that game, but I'd lean towards the Aggies. Miss State will get LA tech and the line has moved from -19 to -23.5 and I really don't get it. LA Tech hung tight against LSU, and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. SEC schools and at the end of the day Miss State is still a one dimensional offense.
Purdue really gave this game away with turnovers against Michigan State who started a freshman QB in Lombardi who looked good. Lombardi is a dude 6'3, 235 lbs and looked the part in this game. Purdue lost by 10 as they sold out on a 4th and 3 to get the ball back and gave up a TD to lose by 10 which was particularly frustrating since we had Purdue +8 in a teaser. Moving forward I would fade Mich State who is a road favorite this week at Maryland, and back Purdue although maybe not this week as they are a 3 point home favorite which they deserve but against a very good Iowa team. That game will be a Big Ten East eliminator game and I'll probably pass but be watching.
There are no other games that really stand out to me. I'm looking forward to the calendar flip to November. Between NFL and College we only profited +.584% which I suppose is better than losing in October, but November and December tend to be my best months and I can't wait to get back on track here. Make sure you subscribe to the premium newsletter which has now won 3 weeks in a row.
