College Football Week 7 Betting Preview

BYU loses to Utah State by 25 points, but this game was misleading as BYU was pretty even when you look at yards per play 5.54 to 5.55. BYU, for the second year in a row had issues turning the ball over in this game and they could not match Utah State's energy early in this game. It was a brutal scheduling spot for BYU when you factor in they were on a short week, and Utah State was off a bye. I was also less than impressed with the "home crowd" for what is an instate rivalry game. Betting Take - Utah State is going to get a lot of credit moving forward, but I'm not going to buy it. It will be tough to bet on BYU as well. Utah State is a 24.5 point favorite at home against UNLV who got smoke by New Mexico. Worth noting is the fact that UNLV was playing without their star QB Armani Rogers who is out 6-8 weeks. BYU is a 13 point favorite over Hawaii sho is in a brutal schedule spot.

NC state beats Boston College 28-23, but depending on what # you got in this game you might not have covered with NC state, a team that dominated the majority of this game and outgained Boston College by 215 yards, but were -3 TO's. This was a 21-3 game at the half, and BC fought back despite not having their star RB AJ Dillon. Betting Take - buying on NC State, who has a NFL ready QB, and still not getting any credit. NC State has a buy before going on the road to face Clemson. When you look at NC State's schedule they are the team nobody is talking about getting into the college football playoff. Actually neither one of my sportsbook have odds on this.

Nevada actually outgained Fresno State by 56 yards, but they lost 21-3 in an ugly game. Nevada turned the ball over as Fresno STate enjoyed the +2 margin edge on their way to victory. Betting Take - I'm still looking for opportunities to back Nevada and fade Fresno State, but Nevada just doesn't know how to win games. They have shown up on a misleading final game report so many times this year. Nevada a 17.5 point dog this week at home against Boise State who just lost to San Diego State. Does Boise State, with 2 losses care anymore? That's the question you have to ask, because Nevada is certainly capable of hanging in this game from an offensive perspective. Fresno, meanwhile is an 18 point favorite over Wyoming, a team with a good defense, but a very very bad offense.

California loses by 7 points over Arizona and for the second week in a row they probably should have won. They finish the game with a 93% win probability and lose the game. California was one of the biggest steam plays last week as they opened up +2.5 and moved all the way to a 2.5 point favorite. They were absolutely the right side, as they outgained Arizona by 211 yards, and were +1.7 yards per play, but had too many costly turnovers. Betting Take - California is still a great defense, and will be undervalued. The past two weeks the offense has actually moved the ball, but they have had some bad turnover luck. I'll look to back California moving forward as a dog, and even maybe this week against UCLA as a TD favorite.

Missouri losing on the road by 2 to a backup QB of South Carolina. They had a post game win probability of 96%, outgained South Carolina by 113 yards, they had +1.4 yards per play and +13% Success rate. Betting Take - Not sure what to do with these SEC teams. They are just below the top tier in the SEC, and I'm sure they will have value at points the rest of the season. Missouri, going on the road to face Alabama as 28 point dogs on the road. I'm sure Alabama will score plenty of points and Missouri will too as the total is at 75 points. South Carolina a 2 point home dog hosting Texas A&M who begins a 3 game SEC road stretch. A&M has been dominant on defense stopping the run, but haven't proven it against a team that can pass the ball and Jake Bentley has been upgraded to probable here. Small lean with the home dog.

Notre Dame's final score looks like a blowout 45-23, but this game was much closer and a 17-16 game at the half. Virginia Tech could not lose the turnover battle, but they did -1. Virginia Tech actually outgained Notre Dame by 3 yards in this game. Betting Take - Notre Dame has an easy schedule the rest of the way. I'm still not sold and hoping they lose, because I don't want to see them in the college football playoff. Notre DAme a 21 point favorite at home to Pitt. My gut tells me to back Pitt, but it will probably be a stay away game after backing Pitt in previous weeks.

The week we don't bet Utah, because of their inability to not turn the ball over. Of  course they have +4 turnover day and beat Stanford with ease 40-21. Stanford was in a pretty bad spot following the travel to and from Notre Dame the week before. Utah was desperate for a win and match up well against Stanford, but the final was misleading. Utah was out gained by 2 yards as the +4 TO margin was the only thing keeping this from a field goal game. Betting Take - Value on Stanford moving forward, and I still think Utah is a better team than they have shown. Utah returns home on a short week and they are a 13.5 point favorite at home. Arizona, off the misleading victory over Cal in a home game traveling on a short week. This line is definitely justified as their offense should not score more than 10 points here. I think Utah can put up 30+ points here for the second week in a row as ARizona has struggled at times on defense particularly against mobile QB's.

Louisville got beat 66-31 at home against Georgia Tech. Actually leaned toward the over in this game, but decided to lay off. Betting Take - value on Louisville and under's moving forward. Preparing for the triple option when you have never seen it and you are a young team is hard enough. Doing it on a short week and you can see what happens. Add on being -3 TO margin and this score looked way worse than this game actually was. Louisville had plenty of success on offense which is the silver lining for the rest of the season. You could argue Georgia Tech could actually be 5-1 this season. They are going to be a tough team to beat the rest of the way.

Arkansas scored some points on Alabama, 31 as they covered the spread by 1.5 point. Alabama has now dropped 3 straight games ATS. Alabama's defense is showing some weaknesses here, but they have the ability to just outscore everyone. Moving Forward Arkansas has shown improvement, and their defense has been really dominant at times this season. Their offensive coach should have them playing better and winning games before the season is out. Arkansas offense should look good this week vs. Ole Miss and they are 6.5 point home dogs. This should be a good opportunity for them to get a win as there are supposed to be 15mph winds throughout the game.

Colorado beat Arizona State and will continue to move up the rankings. I did give a wager out on Arizona State +2.5 and this was a back and forth game throughout. Arizona State was actually +.1 yards per play, but -6% success rate. This was really a coin flip game that we came out on the wrong side. Moving Forward I would still look to back Arizona State, and Colorado is a team you have to look to fade at some point they are going to lose. They have not played anyone. This week they'll go on the road to face USC as a 7 point dog, and I'm really not man enough to back USC as a favorite under Clay Helton, and would not be totally shocked if the better coach went into USC and got a win.

Miss State defeated Auburn with ease 23-9 as the Auburn offense looks really bad yet for the third week in a row. Miss State was the second leg of our teaser that easily won with two dogs winning outright. Miss State +114 yards in the game and held Auburn to a 34% success rate. Moving Forward Auburn seems to have nothing but the Iron Bowl to play of. You really have to wonder what has happened to this offense. They supposedly have an NFL QB, but the offensive line has been so bad. I'm not sure I can play on a team with that bad of an offensive line. Auburn opened up as an 18 point favorite and dropped significantly to 15 against Tennessee. How Auburn is still ranked is beyond me. It's definitely the SEC getting too much credit. Miss State in a nice spot here getting a bye and time to prepare and regroup before they go on the road to face LSU who is playing Georgia this week.

Clemson who I gave out as a strong lean on the podcast at -17 last week wins 63-3. I would have given this out as a play had it not jumped to 21 by the time I really had a chance to look at the game. I should have known that Clemson would want to put up a dominating effort before they go into their bye week. This was great to see Clemson's offense dominate this way and gives one hope that they can contend with Alabama possibly in the college football playoff. Moving Forward Clemson has to be a team that you think gets on a run here. They want that #2 spot to avoid playing Alabama until the Championship game. Wake Forest just looks awful and are not the same team we played on quite a bit last year. I do like to buy low, and I think Wake does have a good offense and good coach so I can't rule out the possibility of betting on them in the future.

Miami and Florida sTATE rivalry game was a close one 28-27 with Miami winning late. This was an ugly game to watch as neither team was successful on offense. Florida State had just 200 total yards, but they scored 27 points? Moving Forward Neither one of these teams is very good and they are being carried by their defenses. I don't think I could back either one of them the rest of the season. Miami will go on the road to face Virginia and opened as a TD road favorite dropping to 6 which signifies some smart action on Virginia. Virginia is coming off a bye with extra time to prepare and Miami has historically struggled in games the week following their rivalry game with Florida State going 1-4 ATS the last 5 years. Their losses have come by an average of 15.5 points per game against the spread. If you wanted to take Virginia on the money line I really could not blame you.

Iowa State won at Oklahoma State as a 9.5 point dog. This would have been a play had I got the line earlier in the week at +10.5, but I layed off. Iowa State was +50 yards in this game, and switched to a new QB Brock Purdy, and he seriously looked good. Iowa State can beat any team in this conference and have a big game against #6 West Virginia this week that I think they might pull the upset against. Moving Forward Oklahoma State is hit or miss this season. Just when you think they are going to have a down season they come up with a big win, and just when you think they could be a ranked team they lost to a team they shouldn't. They open up as a 7 point road favorite this week, a situation I don't like them in. Looking to bet them at home as a short favorite and that is all. Iowa State a 7 point home dog this week against West Virginia in spots. West Virginia getting a ton of respect here and they really haven't played anyone this year worth speaking of with Tennessee, Kansas State, Kansas, Texas Tech meanwhile Iowa State has played Iowa, Oklahoma, TCU, and Oklahoma State and have played each of these teams tough. I find it hard to believe that Matt Campbell won't have his team ready and in this game.

Texas A&M vs. Kentucky was a great game that went to OT. I pushed at +6, but hopefully you got a better number as 6.5 was available at time on this game. Kentucky really did not play well offensively, and were fortunate with a +2 TO margin as they were out gained by 212 yards. Moving Forward I'm still a believer on Kentucky especially their defense which continues to play really well. Suffering a loss like this in OT can be devastating based on how their season was projecting, but the good news is they get a bye before hosting Vanderbilt.

LSU loses to Florida 19-27. Florida got a slow start in this game, but their defense really played well after the first couple drives for LSU. Florida was +2 TO margin in the game, Moving Forward Florida will have a big game in 3 weeks against Georgia. They played Vanderbilt who has played them tough the last few years this coming week, followed by a bye before the Georgia showdown. LSU has a brutal schedule coming up and we will see what happens to them. It starts this week as a 7.5 point home dog to Georgia. LSU probably thinks this is disrespect, and I expect a lot of sharps to probably be on LSU this week, but this may be the point of the season where things start to get ugly for LSU. If this was a night game I could maybe make an argument for LSU, but Georgia should win this game in my opinion and might be worth teasing down to half point as Georgia is off two easy matchups and has a bye after this week.

Wisconsin beat Nebraska 41-24, but only outgained them by 15 yards. They give up 518 yards and it's clear that defense is not nearly as good as last year. I expect we can make some money on backing Nebraska in the future especially if they continue to show improvement. Wisconsin is just a fade candidate the rest of the year although they have not covered the spread much. Maybe this game is the game it took for Vegas to knock them down on their power rating enough, but I highly doubt it. Wisconsin a 8 or 8.5 point dog at Michigan with smart action backing them early in the week. Can you really trust Jim Harbough to win this game by double digits?

North Texas beat UTEP as a 25.5 point favorite by only 3 points. They actually had a post game win probability of 28% so they should have lost the game, but they were fortunate to be +2 TO margin. This was obviously a game that North Texas probably was not taking seriously. I did mention this on my Friday report that this was the biggest road favorite role North Texas was in the history of their program.

Michigan State just going through the motions it felt like against Northwestern who comes out with a 29-19 win. Northwestern actually outgained by 44 yards in the game and had -1 TO margin, but were able to throw the ball over the yard on the Spartans as Thorson had 373 passing yards. Moving Forward Sparty a 14 point dog at Penn State who is off a bye following their devastating loss to Ohio State. How will they rebound, and how will Michigan State rebound following a loss as a double digit favorite? Love Spartans in the dog role and I expect they'll play Penn State tough.

San Diego State come off a bye and beat Boise State as a double digit dog. San Diego State held Boise to just 229 yards in this game on 80 plays. That is a great performance holding Boise to less than 3 yards per play. Moving Forward Boise still a huge favorite this week against Nevada which we touched on earlier in this podcast.

San Diego STate on a short week will face Air Force, but luckily they'll be at home for this one as Air Force has to travel. Air Force just came off a very emotional win over Navy and are in a major letdown spot against San Diego State. Had SD State gotten beat by Boise I would have probably backed them. Leaning Air Force here this is far too many points for two slow tempo teams who like the run the ball.

Syracuse loses to Pitt 37-44 as Pitt returned home in a must win game and they got it for their head coach. Syracuse obviously following a heartbreaking loss at Clemson, a game they gave everything. Moving Forward Pitt is just not a very good team I don't care what anyone says they just are not a good team, and Syracuse is a team that we will look to back again at some point.

Texas covers over Oklahoma 48-45, but this game was a 21 point lead in the 4th quarter that was tied up at 45 before Dicker the kicker wins it in walk off fashion. Has Texas returned to glory? They should be favorites the rest of the way, but I can't help but think they trip up a couple of times. However, I think they tend to play better the rest of the season after they win the Red Rivalry. Following this game Oklahoma finally firs their defensive coordinator Stoops so that should be interesting to find out what they do from there, but Oklahoma in the box score should have won this game. They were +11% success rate + 2.5 yards per play, but -3 TO margin. Moving Forward Oklahoma's offense is just so good that they are going to cover games the rest of the year I'll have to dig in to see what they will do on defense moving forward. I think their defense has just been on the field so much these last 3 games, from a play basis and time of possession basis that it just caught up with them, and now they have the bye to rest up before going on the road to face TCU.

Navy dominated by Air Force 35-7 held to 178 yards while Air Force was +2.8 yards per play in the game. Moving Forward Navy just doesn't look like a good team. The sharp movement seems to agree as Temple a road favorite of 4.5 points moved to 7.5 points.

Wyoming loses to Hawaii and they had the lead late before giving up a 40 yard TD pass. This game started at midnight so I did not get to watch despite holding a Wyoming +145 ticket. It was the second week in a row Hawaii won and killed our ML dog of the week ticket. This game could have gone either way. Hawaii ruled out their QB just before the game and we still did not win. Moving Forward I will continue to fade Hawaii, and they have to travel again this week to BYU who showed how pathetic they were last week against an in state rival so I'll lay off as i really can't rush to back BYU at this point, I am 0-4 ATS backing them the last 2 years. A cool little feature on my documented records is you can search a team to see how I have done betting on them. I did get off to a 9-3 ATS start with BYU in my career for what it is worth.