Misleading Finals:
Here is a misleading final - Liberty 52-43 over New Mexico. New Mexico had a post game win probability of 75.9% here as they were +1.12 yards per play, +13.6% in success rate, but were -3 TO margin. I really don't know what to make of Liberty, who goes back on the road this week to face New Mexico State as a 4 point favorite, and expected to get a ton of the bets. New Mexico is still a team worth wagering as a dog as they like to run the ball a lot and they'll face UNLV this week as a 11.5 point dog Both teams running well over 60% of their plays.
North Texas lost to Louisiana Tech as their field goal was blocked to end the game. They had a 91.2% post game win probability as they were +.87 yards per play, +7.8% success rate, but were -2 in the TO margin. North Texas plays UTEP this week as a 25.5 point road favorite, and they probably could name their score in that game, but I simply don't like playing road favorites that large.
Nevada outgained Air Force by 186 yards, they were +2.94 yards per play, and +&7.4% success rate, but they only beat Air Force by 3 points. Nevada has some value this week as a 13 point home dog against Fresno. However, worth mentioning is the fact that Toledo played both of these teams in back to back weeks. Fresno played Toledo at home and won 49-27, They were +179 yards +2.63 yards per play, +29.7% success rate, while Nevada played Toledo on the road and lost 63-44, and they were -122 yards, -.37 YPP, +2 TO, and -2.5% success rate. It was a misleading final for sure. Nevada got 18 more drives than Toledo and dominated field of position by 14 yards on average. On paper you see Fresno beat Toledo by 22, and Nevada lost to 19, but there are some things hidden in those stats including the fact that Fresno hosted Toledo, and Nevada had to travel on the road. Fresno also got top lay them after they played Nevada, a team they know.
East Carolina only beat Old Dominion by 2, but outgained them by 221 yards and were +2.11 yards per play. Old Dominion was lucky to have +16.8 field position edge. East Carolina continues to play well and is a much improved team. They'll go on the road to play a Temple team that is more suited to stop the run than the pass, and East Carolina is 83rd in run play %. Should be an interesting matchup that I would have to lean with East Carolina.
Purdue defeated Nebraska by 14 on the road, but they only had a 61% postgame win probability. They were actually outgained by 66 yards, and Nebraska averaged more yards per play by .65. Purdue enjoyed a 9.2 field position edge and were +1 in TO margin. I actually like both of these teams moving forward. Nebraska is showing some signs and they are 19 point road dogs at Wisconsin, a team I just don't think is any good. I'm not sure I will be backing Nebraska this week, because Wisconsin still has the type of defense that should be able to take away a one dimensional attack, but at some point Nebraska will be worth a large play.
Clemson beat Syracuse 27-23 with their third string QB. This was very much a misleading final as Syracuse was +158 yards int eh game +1.08 yards per play, but suffered a -8.5 yard field position battle and were -2 TO margin and ofcourse down to their third string QB for most of the game.
West Virginia defeated Texas Tech, and did not score an offensive TD in the second half. This games was not close early and it seemed like West Virginia was going to let Texas Tech back into the game and even win the game. West Virginia had a ton of dropped passes, but in reality they dominated this game despite the 42-34 final.
Texas only beat Kansas State 19-14 but they were +122 yards and +1.67 yards per play. They actually dominated this game early, but the offense pretty much shut down after they got off to the big lead. This was impressive when you consider how poorly Texas has played the week before the Red River Rivalry. Tom Herman a dog again this week at +8 and is 16-1 ATS as a dog with many outright upsets. I think Oklahoma has had a very weak schedule ranking #37 compared to Texas at #7. Texas has only been getting better while Oklahoma's defense is looking worse week by week giving up 33 to Baylor. Baylor couldn't top 30 against Kansas and Duke. They gave up 27 to Iowa State, who has not scored more than that in any of their other games. UCLA also scored a season high 21 points at Oklahoma, they have yet to top 20 points against the likes of Fresno, Colorado, and Cincinnati. Granted Oklahoma plays faster and there are more plays, but I always like backing the better defense getting points.
North Carolina vs. Miami
I know North Carolina was going to have a hard time trying to get back to back victories, and they were clearly dominated by Miami in this game. Miami enjoyed a +3.31 yard per play advantage in the 47-10 victory, but only had 354 yards as they benefited form +4TO margin. Betting Takeaway: I still feel like we don't know what Miami is. They have a favorable matchup this week at home against Florida State, but they are 12.5 point favorites. I think their defensive line can dominate Florida State's offensive line here, but 12.5 is a lot of points. Miami hasn't been more than a 2.5 point favorite in this game in over a decade. North Carolina has a bye and then they face Virginia Tech at home where they will likely be dogs, and I will definitely be looking to back North Carolina.
UCLA vs. Colorado:
UCLA was -1.77 yards per play in this one, but -14% in success rate which is a big gap in their 38-16 loss. At some point UCLA will win a game this year they are now 1-3 ATS so there is going to be value betting on the Bruins from here on out. They host Washington this week as a 21.5 point dog which I simply can't touch. Colorado is starting to get some respect popping into the top 25 this week at 21 and is a home favorite of 2.5 points against Arizona State. It seems like everytime a team pops into the top 25 they seem to lose.
Tulane over Memphis Friday night. This was a premium play to clients on Tulane +14.5 and an easy victory as they dominated the game from start to finish. +219 total yards +22.1 success rate, and +.93 yards per play. That was a desperate Tulane team that is actually pretty good, but have faced a tough schedule. They go on the road to face Cincinnati as 7.5 point dogs and I would definitely lean on them to continue that momentum. Memphis will get their mojo back this weekend against Uconn at home as a 35 point favorite.
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas
Arkansas +21.5 was a premium play to clients on Saturday and one of the few winners. It did not get off to a good start as Arkansas special teams again struggling as they gave up the kick return TD to start the game, but their defense settled in and held A&M to 377 yards. A&M helped keep this game close with several missed field goals, but overall Arkansas defense is carrying the load. They were only -.56 yards per play in this one, but -16.5% success rate and their -9 yards in field position which is a weekly fiasco is really hurting them from having a chance to win games. Arkansas will probably be shutout by Alabama this week as a 33.5 point dog. Arkansas defense has been good, but there is no way they can hold Alabama to 42 points or less, and that's what they'll need to do to cover this spread. Texas A&M hosts Kentucky #13 at home as a 5.5 point favorite. A&M is not ranked so that just tells you what Vegas thinks of Kentucky. On a neutral field Kentucky would be a 8.5 point dog.
Speaking of Kentucky we faded them this week against South Carolina. I really thought they'd have issues with a team capable of passing, but Kentucky edged out South Carolina for a 5th time in a row. Honestly, South Carolina played a really sloppy game and this game was a lot closer in my opinion. South Carolina was -19.7 yards in field position which is a huge disadvantage and they were -3 TO margin. They were in the game from a yards per play perspective at -0.61, but you have to give Kentucky credit and I would lean on them to upset Texas A&M this week as they just have all of the momentum right now. South Carolina, I don't know if they can recover. They'll host Missouri who is off a bye and looked better than they did against Georgia. South Carolina is a 2 point favorite and I'm interested to see which way the market dictates that line.
Louisville looked much improved this past week against Florida State and lose 28-24 despite outgaining Florida State by 51 yards. Their may be some opportunities to start backing Louisville if the offense starts to click. They'll face Georgia Tech this week on Friday night as a 3.5 point dog. Florida State who we already mentioned is a 12.5 point dog at Miami.
Miss State vs. Florida was one of the game of the weeks as it had interesting story lines with Dan Mullen returning to face his former team. Florida pretty much dominated on defense holding Miss State to 202 yards. This did not surprise me at all considering Nick Fitzgerald has a ton of weaknesses and Mullen knew them all. I think Florida is going to be overvalued moving forward and we see it this week as they are a 2 point dog at home against LSU. Miss State will host Auburn as a 3 or 3.5 point home dog, and this is a buy low opportunity. Auburn has looked awful the past few weeks so in reality I want no part of that game.
Auburn beat Southern Miss 24-13, and were only +81 total yards, +.94 yards per play, +10.3 % success rate and were +2 TO Margin, but they only managed an 11 point win against a group of 5 team. You have to think they are in better shape than MIss State who just got beat down in back to back weeks by SEC opponents pretty much ending their season. As bad as Auburn looked the last two weeks their defense should dominate this week and they have everything left to play for.
San Jose State loses against Hawaii 41-44. San Jose was our ML dog of the week, and they were clearly the right side with a 65% win post game win probability as they were +.9 yards per play, and +2 TO margin, but their field goal kicker was awful in OT missing 2 field goals that would have given San Jose the win. Hawaii is a team I will look to continue to fade as they are 3.5 point favorites at home against Wyoming. Leaning heavily towards Wyoming this week. San Jose State is worth a look moving forward as well.
TCU edged out Iowa State as a 10.5 point favorite winning 17-14 with seconds to go on a field goal. This game was a defensive struggle and TCU was +101 yards, +6.1 field position, +3.8% success rate, and +.45 yards per play. Iowa State has proven they can be competitive with the top teams in the conference and will continue to be a team I want my money on as a dog. Iowa State goes on the road again and will face Oklahoma State as a 10.5 point dog. So far we have seen Iowa State lose by less to TCU, a team that outplayed Ohio STate on a neutral field, and nobody has played Oklahoma better yet they are continually getting disrespected by the oddsmakers.
Oklahoma State beat Kansas and covered on the road, but Kansas had several opportunities to cover the spread but could not do it in the end and it was a tough loss for Kansas backers +17 and I was one of them. Oklahoma State has a good pass rush that is saving their defense each week. I'm still not buying in on Oklahoma State and will look to fade them in certain situations including this week against Iowa State who is fully capable of going to Oklahoma State and coming up with the win. Kansas a 28.5 point dog at West Virginia, a game I could not touch, but Kansas still looking much improved and should get some future wagers.
Michigan just got by Northwestern 20-17. Michigan really did not start this game well, but once they work up their defense simply dominated holding Northwestern to only 202 yards and 3.21 yards per play. They were +2.49 yards per play, +174 yards in this game despite the 3 point win.
Ole Miss was dominated by LSU at home losing 45-16. Ole Miss went against a very good secondary, and their defense is trash so it was simply a bad matchup. Not to mention Ed Oregeron has it out for Ole Miss who fired him. They outgained the Rebels by 245 yards, had +2.89 yards per play in the victory and LSU continues to be everyone's favorite. I am still not sold on LSU's offense. I know they put up over 500 yards, but that was in a night game at home against Ole Miss. Ole Miss allowed Southern Illinois to put up 629 yards in a game, a team that has lost 2 games in FCS play. LSU going on the road to face Florida this week is a big matchup between two teams that really don't like each other. I'm leanin Florida in that one.
