Week 4 Review - 7-6 ATS week +5% in college football, and we hit on our POD with UNLV +7.5, hit on our newsletter play on Ohio, and North Carolina as our free play. We also gave out Purdue money line earlier in the week and they cruised in dominating fashion over Boston College. In the NFL our POD moved to 3-0 as the Redskins +135 moneyline was a nice win setting us up with a 3rd straight winning NFL week. In reality we should have gone 9-5 in college football, but we were stuck on two of the toughest beats of the weekend.
Illinois facing Penn State and it's a 24-21 lead at home on a Friday night for Illinois. Illinois ticket holders at +28 like myself are feeling confident until Illinois makes a bunch of mistakes and Penn State gets big plays all over the place. It was a very bad beat as it is almost impossible not to cover a 28 point spread u 3 points in the 3rd quarter, but it happened. Betting Take: Illinois did not slow this game down like I thought. That is the main reason they did not cover this spread as they had 76 plays and 14 drives to Penn State's 13. We should still find opportunities to back Illinois, but Penn State is getting way too much credit for their blowout wins over Pitt, Kent State, and Illinois.
Oregon loses to Stanford - They outgain STanford by 126 yards, and Oregon simply could have kneeled on the ball to run the clock out, and instead they try to run for a first down, the RB stretches and fumbles the ball. Stanford with 50 seconds left drives scores, and wins in OT. Probably one of the worst beats of my career if I am being honest. ESPN posted a win probability sheet on twitter that I re-tweeted. It had Oregon as a 100% chance to win a couple times in this game, but you have to give Stanford credit they never gave up and made the big plays that mattered while the Ducks choked. Betting Take: It's going to be difficult for Oregon to rebound this week on the road against California. Meanwhile Stanford is a surprising 4.5 point dog at Notre Dame, GOY line was -8 Notre Dame. I understand Stanford did not look good, but Notre Dame until last game has looked awful. It's probably one of the worst top 10 match-ups that I can remember as I don't think either team is a top 10 team.
Notre Dame dominated Wake Forest winning 56-27. I had leaned towards Wake Forest, but was worried that Notre Dame was just going to put up a ton of points and they did with 58.2% Success rate. They were also +3.12 yards per play in the game. Notre Dame made a switch at QB and the move looks genius, but Notre Dame did just face Wake Forest. Wake Forest left their Freshman QB in the starting role here and he did not play well. I'll be interested to see what they do moving forward. Now that Kendall Hinton is no longer suspended. Wake is a 25.5 point favorite against Rice this week and that's a stay away game for me.
Misleading Finals:
These are teams I'd look to buy or sell in the weeks moving forward.
BUY FAU - loses 36-56, but they were only -.85 yards per play. They also were -3 TO Margin in the game against Central Florida. A game they hung in the game until the 4th quarter when the game got out of hand. FAU opens as a 4.5 point road favorite against Middle Tennessee this week.
Sell Central Florida - I had to hold off on fading UCF this past week, but it's very clear that they are not the same team as last year. I thought they would come up big on Friday night, and this week they face Pittsburgh as a 15.5 point favorite. The game is at home, and I'll look to fade Central Florida here.
Buy Tulsa who loses the game by 14 points and does not cover the spread despite +103 total yards in the game. It did take a lot more plays to get to 403, 107 to be exact which isn't exactly impressive, but Temple has a good defense. The -3 TO's did not help Tulsa in this one and there should be some value backing Tulsa in the future.
Temple - I'm not buying or selling on this team. They had back to back impressive defenses performances. I think there is still value backing Temple who is a 14 point road dog this week at BC. They already took down Maryland a more dynamic offense in week 3. Temple could be a live dog this week at BC.
Buy Arizona - It looks like Arizona quietly got it together this past weekend against Oregon State winning 35-14. They were +5.34 yards per play in this game and the game really was not as close as the final shows.
Sell Auburn - Auburn beat Arkansas 34-3, but so did North Texas and Colorado State. Auburn managed just 3.88 yards per play in the game. I'm totally selling on this team. This game was much closer than the final indicated. Auburn a 28 point favorite at home this week against Southern MIss
Buy Arkansas - I don't think I'm that crazy. The fact that Arkansas came out with a dominant defensive effort this past week shows me that they are playing for HC Chad Morris. They will also face Texas A&M at the right time as a 20 point dog here on the road. I don't know if I'm buying this week, but if they don't cover the spread for the 4th or 5th week in a row there is opportunities coming down the line.
Buy Purdue - I already bought in big on Purdue +218 this past week and it paid off as they held Boston College's hyped offense to 229 yards. Purdue's offense is developing and they were +1.76 yards per play in this game. I expect Purdue to continue to be a value play when the match-up is right. If they face a team that can't throw the ball they are a team worth backing. This week they are a 3 point road favorite against Nebraska which I would pass on.
Selling South Florida - They beat East Carolina 20-13, but were 21 point favorites at home. They were out gained by 116 yards by East Carolina. I've bet against South Florida a couple times already this season and will continue to sell them moving forward. I'm not buying East Carolina, but they do get an interesting game against Old Dominion who just pulled off the biggest upset of the week and of their program by beating Virginia Tech.
Buy Florida - They will travel for the second week in a row as Dan Mullen takes on his old school Miss State. Florida's loss to Kentucky at home suddenly does not look as bad, as Kentucky handled Miss State as well. Florida this past week dominated Tennessee, +2.69 yards per play, and they were +4 TO margin. Miss State on the road was -1.57 yards per play vs. Kentucky while Florida at home was -1.59. Dan Mullen clearly knows Miss State extremely well and has a ton of value this week in a game that should be Miss State -3.5.
Buy Kentucky - Kentucky is a real contender here in my opinion. They have beaten down on two SEC teams that they normally would lose to. They are getting a lot of credit and are 1.5 point home favorites ranking #17 in the polls and will face South Carolina. Can they do it again?
Sell - Texas was outgained on a per play basis, but their +4 TO margin helped them get a 31-16 win. Hard to fade Tom Herman as a dog. This game was much closer than the final showed, and that's back to back weeks that Texas has had very misleading victories. Texas an 8.5 point road favorite at Kansas State this week.
Sell - USC Wow they looked awful on Friday night. I will say the only good thing about the game was the fact that JT Daniels looked like he grew up in the span of one game. Daniels 3 TD passes, 65% completions 9.3 yards per attempt against a good defense. However, USC continues to be poorly coached and the defense is just bad. Sharps seem to agree as the opening line -5 at Arizona dropped to -3 overnight.
Sell - Wisconsin - Wisconsin very easily could have lost that game at Iowa, and they were fortunate to win in my opinion. Wisconsin was -1.19 yards per play and allowed Iowa 7.48 yards per play in this game. Wisconsin's defense just does not look as good this year. Luckily they go into a bye to figure things out before hosting Nebraska and then traveling to face Michigan to open up October.
Buy TCU - TCU's value is as low as it could get right now after back to back losses. They outplayed Ohio State, but made mistakes. They outgained Texas on the road but were -4 TO margin in the game. If they can limit their mistakes they could win out. Iowa State this week and the line is already moving away from TCU, opened 12.5 down to 10.5. I probably won't back them this week, because I have a lot of respect for Iowa State's head coach, backed them against Oklahoma in week 3 and covered. TCU likely to be a small favorite against Texas Tech on a Thursday night game as Texas Tech is now cracking top 25 in some peoples ratings.
Other Games:
West Virginia dominates Kansas State 35-6 with +2.36 yards per play. They should have won by more but they were -3 TO margin in the game. They will go on the road to face Texas Tech this week in a very intriguing match-up, because Texas Tech pulled a shocker in week 4.
Tech went on the road and beat Oklahoma State 41-17. They were +0.52 yards per play, but outgained Oklahoma State by 235 yards. Oklahoma State could have been in a hangover mode following their big prime time win over Boise State. I'd lean West Virginia this week, but probably a pass for me.
Oklahoma - I have been selling on them all season. They host Army and Army took them to overtime before losing 28-21. Oklahoma ran 40 plays in the entire game +4.52 yards per play, but this was a clear example of why the triple option works and why coaches don't need to play as fast as possible. If you are going to back a dog you need to be looking at pace of play and possessions. Oklahoma had just 8 possessions in this game.
Virginia Tech loses to Old Dominion as a 28 point favorite, and now they drop to 5.5 dog at Duke. The line has actually moved 4.5 points since opening at 1.5, and I might grab Virginia Tech in a teaser. There is at least 7 points of line value in this game based on one game.
South Carolina got a bye at the right time. They lost in a devastating game to Georgia 17-41, and then go on a bye and come back to beat a Vanderbilt team 37-14 that was looking really good.
