College Football Week 2 Review & Week 3 Betting Value

TCU led by only 2 points at the half, but dominated the second half 28-0 on their way to covering the spread. TCU will be hosting Oho STate this week and the line has moved up to 12 points. TCU really did not look good against SMU team that hasn't looked good this year so I think the spread move with Ohio State is justified. TCU only outgained SMU by 135 yards and only had 5.53 yards per play. I would be careful to fade them as a double digit home dog. Gary Patterson is one of the best football coaches in the nation.

Houston dominates Arizona early in their 45-18 victory. There was a lot of garbage yardage for Arizona here as they put up 531 yards of offense compared to Houston's 551, but -2 TO margin, and their success rate was 35.3%. Houston is just a 2.5 point dog at Texas Tech, and I think there may be some value fading them this week.

Alabama finally covered a large spread against a non-power 5 opponent in week 2. I had mentioned the trend of Alabama not covering these spreads, and I decided not to play against Alabama in week 2 mainly because their backup QB Jalen Hurts is really a starter and it sure showed in their 57-7 victory over Arkansas State. Alabama has now won easily in back to back weeks ATS. They will play at Ole Miss who has plenty of offensive talent and has given Alabama issues in the past. Alabama is a 22.5 point favorite, but sharps hit that line and it has moved down to 20.5. I would be a player again at 21.5 here on Ole Miss.

Arkansas had a post game win probability of 51.3%, but they lose the game at Colorado State 34-27. Arkansas was +8 in yardage they had a higher success rate This is extremely troubling for Arkansas when you figure how bad the Colorado State team looked in weeks 1 and 2. Both Hawaii & Colorado put more points up on Colorado State. Arkansas has a very interesting game this week against a very good North Texas team at home and they are just a 7 point favorite.

Notre Dame failed to cover the spread against Ball State at home. They won 24-16 and only outgained Ball STate by 65 total yards in the game. Notre Dame is still a team that is over hyped in my opinion. They currently are 14.5 point favorites at home to Vanderbilt, a team that has looked really good through the first two weeks covering the spread.

Baylor looked great this past week with nearly a 250 yardage edge over Texas San Antonio, and in one of the more puzzling lines of the week will be 6.5 point home favorites against the Duke Blue Devils. I expected Baylor to have a big improvement in year 2 under Matt Rhule. I really don't know that this spread is justified by the way Duke has played, but it seems like Duke will likely get most of the money and be that popular dog that the public takes and loses on.

Speaking of Duke, in their 21-7 road win as a dog against Northwestern they were actually outgained by 80 yards. Their +2 turnover margin was definitely a benefit. Their road game at Baylor will present newer challenges and I actually do lean towards Baylor at home this week.

Fresno State lost 14-21 at Minnesota despite their 60% postgame win probability. They did not outgain MInnesota, but they had 5.16 yards per play compared to 4.39. Fresno State had 2 interceptions in the game, and lost the time of possession by 17 minutes. Fresno goes on the road to face UCLA this week as a 2 point dog and I expect they will rebound against another Power 5 program that is rebuilding. Minnesota will host Miami Ohio who is really struggling right now starting the season 0-2.

UCLA went on the road and covered the spread late against Oklahoma. On paper the game looks much closer than it should as UCLA was able to generate 5.04 yards per play compared to 6.93 for Oklahoma. I'll be looking to fade both these teams soon. Oklahoma will be going on the road this week and it will be Kyler Murray's first test against a good defense and in a road environment. Oklahoma has revenge but covering an 18 point spread is a lot to ask.

Iowa State only scored 3 points, but their defense was dominant in the loss holding Iowa to 271 total yards. The turnover margin did not help, but they'll be big dogs because of just one result. I expect Iowa State to rebound and be in the game against Oklahoma this week.

California was a dog I wanted to play last week, but just could not pull the trigger. They beat BYU 21-18, but outgained them by 102 yards. The defense really showed up limiting BYU to just 3.88 yards per play. BYU will go on the road to face Wisconsin and if they could not get anything going against Cal, they will surely struggle vs. Wisconsin. However, the line has moved from 24 to 21.

Kentucky looked outstanding and had nearly 8 yards per play against Florida as they won outright for the first time in 31 years over Florida. This was one of my premium plays for clients and it was an easy winner. The running game for Kentucky seems like the real deal, and this defense is Mark Stoops best since he has been here. Luckily Kentucky does not have to play a serious game this week ast hey host Murray STate before hosting Miss State the following week in what will be a very interesting game.

Western Kentucky had a 62.8% postgame win probability but lost to FCS foe Maine 31-28. I just think this is an example of poor coaching. Normally I would want to back a team after this type of a final, but I am not a big fan of this team and I think Louisville is hungry for a blowout as 22 point favorites this week.

Memphis had a 97.8% postgame win probability but they lost in a heartbreaker on the road against Navy 22-21. Navy was impressive on defense as they held Memphis to 378 yards, but they did give up 7.71 yards per play so a deeper look reveals that they are still struggling big time on defense. Navy seems like a team we may have to fade this year.

Georgia Tech is another team with a 78.3% postgame win probability, but they lost 49-38. This one was troubling as they gave up back to back kickoff returns to begin the game. We gave out Georgia Tech -3.5 to clients and still felt like we were in good shape with a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter before South Florida went nuts. Georgia Tech also had a -2 TO margin, but they were +2.33 yards per play in the game. I still feel like South Florida is a team you'd look to fade, but it might be hard to do so against a team like Illinois this week as they are a 10 point road favorite.

Liberty lost to Army despite outgaining them by .73 yards per play as they lost 38-14. Liberty is a team worth backing in the future, but without a bettable game this week and with Army hosting Hawaii we will look to collect more info on this Army team as they'll host Hawaii making a 20 hour trip and they are 6.5 point favorites which is interesting when you consider Hawaii alreayd played Navy at home as a 14.5 point dog and just dominated.

Michigan STate had a 55% postgame win probability, but lost the game 16-13. They were -2 TO margin and could not get their running game going at all. HOnestly they still held a 13-3 lead entering the 4th quarter and we looked like we would cover the spread until Arizona State scored 3 times to win 16-13. Arizona State is getting a ton of credit now after winning in back to back weeks as a dog, but now they go on the road to face San Diego State a very good team and they'll be road favorites. They follow that up by traveling to face Washington. This team might be getting ahead of themselves if you ask me.

Penn State won 51-6, but that final score is extremely misleading when you factor in they only had a 390 yard to 300 yard edge. Pitt did not play well in the second half. I still think Penn STate is a team we can look to fade and make money this year as we did in week 1 with App State.

Florida State had a 19% postgame win probability over Samford as they were outgained on the day, but managed a 36-26 win because they were +4 in turnover margin. They are a 3.5 point road favorite against Syracuse this week and they clearly don't deserve that.

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