- 2nd year head coaches P% as a dog are 84-64 ATS for a 56.7% ATS record. This week we look to back California who is a 3.5 point dog at BYU.
- 1s year P5 Head coaches as underdogs went 0-2 ATS last week and are now 72-97 ATS, fading these coaches would have you hitting nearly 58% ATS. This week you could fade Texas A&M, Arizona, Arizona STate, UCLA. Some of these have line value and some do not and we will get into it all on today's podcast.
- Pre-season Top 10- Fading these teams you would have gone 6-4 ATS this week. If you took Bama and Ohio State out of that equation as I advised you would have gone 6-2 ATS. This sets up some more interesting situations in week 2 that we will continue to track. As a reminder we did a podcast which is archived on what happens when you fade pre-season top 10 in their first 3 games
Week 1 Review & Week 2 Betting Line Value
- Hawaii won for the second time in a week as a double digit underdog. We had Navy -10, thought we were getting 4 points of value, but they really were dominated 59-41. Hawaii outgained Navy by 111 yards, and went 3 for 3 on 4th down. What have team's down after opening the season as a dog winning outright twice in week 3? Hawaii hosts Rice and will be big favorites.
- Washington vs. Auburn. Washington should have won this game in my opinion. They left 2 opportunities inside the 5 with 0 points. 2 turnovers for Washington vs. Auburn who had 0. Neither team can run the ball and neither QB could take advantage in the low scoring game
- BYU defeated highly touted Arizona which did not shock me at all. BYU is always a good program, and people forget that after last season. They held Khalil Tate to 18 yards rushing and 50% completion rate. I think Tate's Heisman Trophy campaign is over. What's next for BYU?
- Arizona State dominated Texas San Antonio 49-7, and Herman Edwards gets the last laugh. Many were picking Texas San Antonio to upset the Devils, including some of his old colleagues. Herm got the last laugh as his team dominated out gaining their opponent by 300 yards. It went over the total as well, and i think there is value for the Under in week 2 as Arizona State ran the ball 60% and only had 59 plays yet scored 49 points. They will host Mark Dantonio and the Spartans in week 2 in what will be a very intriguing matchup.
- Fresno State is on my fade list this year, and I was happy to see they blew Idaho out 79-13 on Saturday late night. They only had 486 total yards so that final score is a bit deceiving. They'll open up as a 2.5 point road dog at Minnesota.
- Alabama won 51-14 and covered the large 24.5 point spread over Louisville and it was not surprising. They continue to cover large spreads against Power 5 opponents. They typically struggle the following week against a non-power 5 opponent, and this week they face Arkansas State and the line is already climbing as Alabama has all the hype as a 37.5 point favorite. Worth taking a look at Arkansas State +37.5 points this week.
- Michigan lost to Notre Dame by 7 and they actually outgained Notre Dame. THe defense really did not show up in the first half for Michigan and that was the difference. They were -1 TO margin, and I thought there were many other mistakes that Michigan made that could have been avoided. I also thought the play calling was really questionable. I don't think I'll be rushing to back the Wolverines any time soon. Notre Dame is still on my fade list especially after a big win like Michigan. They are also a huge favorite this week against the MAC's Ball State.
- Vanderbilt defeated Middle Tennessee, and I know a lot of sharps had it the other way around, because it actually talked me out of my play on Vanderbilt. Vandy was pretty balanced on offense and their defense had 6 sacks. They open up as a 10 point home favorite against Nevada.
- Kansas State barely got by South Dakota which really surprises a lot of people considering Bill Snyder is the head coach of Kansas State. They had 4 turnovers in the game, and an unheard of 13 penalties in the game. However, their defense shut South Dakota out in the second half and scored 15 to end the game to win 27-24. Kansas State is a 7.5 point home dog against Miss State this week. I think it's too many points personally and there are some advantages to backing a team that nearly got beat by a FCS foe.
- Cincinnati beat UCLA 26-17 as a 14 point dog. UCLA lost their starting QB Wilton Speight early in this game, but Cinci's win is still very impressive, because they are not supposed to be good, but they may be ahead of schedule as they are getting all the recruits that Ohio STate does not. They are only a 1 point dog on the road against Miami Ohio.
- USC defeated UNLV 43-21, but we had the under 64. This game featured 31 points in the 4th quarters. The true freshman JT Daniels was 22-35 282 yards but only 1 TD. They will be a 3.5 point road dog at Stanford this week.
- Stanford did not look great against San Diego State 31-10. Bryce Love only had 29 yards rushing in the game, KJ Costello had 4 passing TD's in the game and the offense picked things up in the second half.
- Texas had identical stats to Maryland, but they were only 3-15 on third down and were -3 TO's in the game against Maryland losing as a 14 point favorite. I have never liked backing Tom Herman as a favorite, but as a dog that's a different story. Texas last year in a similar situation went on the road and nearly defeated USC as a 17 point dog after losing to Maryland. Texas will be at home this week as a 21 point favorite to Tulsa (PASS). Maryland is a 14.5 point road favorite against Bowling Green who played Oregon last week.
- App State nearly defeated Penn State on the road in Happy Valley, and I said they'd have a chance in my weekly newsletter as 24 point road dogs. I said I'd be fading Penn STate a lot this year I just hope there will still be opportunities after they nearly got beat at home to a Sun Belt team. Penn State goes on the road is an 8 point road favorite at Pitt this week.
- Syracuse defeated Western Michigan 55-42 on the road as a 6 point road favorite, but it really was not even that close. If Eric Dungey, Syracuse QB, doesn't leave the game this is an absolute blow out. Dungey leaves the game for a bit and WEstern MIchigan comes back, but Dungey goes back and has an immediate impact. He's going to be fun to watch in 2018. Western Michigan is a 27.5 point underdog against Michigan this week. They are facing a defense that can shut them down, but I'm not even sure Michigan's offense or this team deserves that much credit. Following a SU loss under the Harbourgh era, Michigan is 3-6 ATS.
- Northwestern went on the road and defeated Purdue in a Big Ten opener as a 3 poitn dog. They will host Duke this year as a 3 point favorite as Duke beat ARmy last week. Typically it is always difficult to play a game following Army, because of how they play. Northwestern is also looking for revenge after getting beat by Duke 41-17 last year on the road. Worth noting is Duke has not had any issues covering the following week of their game with Army covering each of the last three years ATS. Duke is also 34-21-2 ATS since 2008 following a SU win. Duke is not a team I'd look to fade although I think they are getting a bit too much credit from last year's beat down of Northwestern in 2017.
- Miami was getting a ton of pre-season credit, and I mentioned they are one of the team's I'd look to fade this year. I even tweeted that LSU was my lean last night, but there was too much unknown with the LSU team and i just decided to pass. Well LSU absolutely dominated had a 33-3 lead in the 4th quarter before the final of 33-17. Miami now with the loss you have to think they are in hangover mode. Miami is actually 1-5 ATS following a SU loss under Mark Richt.
- Misleading Final North TExas vs. SMU. SMU had 1 first down in the first half. North Texas final should have been worse.
- California vs. North Carolina. Cal was ahead and a back door cover for UNC, but UNC did outgain them. They had 4 turnovers in the game and 13 penalties.
- Kentucky 35-20 vs. Central Michigan. Kentucky really dominated the game but had 4 turnovers. 7.0 yards per carry compared to 3.0 for Central Michigan.
- Boise STate 56-20 over Troy. Yards were even, but Troy had 4 turnovers. This was not as bad.
Biggest Line Moves For Week 2 If Week 1 never happened.
- Where would the lines be if week 1 did not happen?
- Alabama -30 vs. Arkansas State, but they are now a -37.5 point favorite giving us 7.5 points of line value. Alabama has not done well following a big SU win against a P5 opponent when facing a non-power 5 opponent. Look to fade Alabama this week.
- Boise State -24 vs. Uconn, but Boise State pounded Troy 56-20 on the road, but Troy had 4 turnovers and the game was even in yards. Uconn got pounded at home by Central Florida who looks like they are not missing a beat and this has resulted in a nearly 10 point move to 33.5. Definite value on Uconn here +33.5 but are you daring enough to back them?
- Florida Atlantic -15.5 vs. Air Force. We faded FAU as a 20.5 point road dog in our free pick last week and it was an easy winner as Oklahoma dominated from the start of the game. FAU is now only an 8.5 point home favorite against Air Force.
- Hawaii -6.5 vs. Rice. Well Hawaii won the second week in a row as a double digit dog and now they are 17 point home favorites an 11 point line move. It seems justified, but I'd like to see how this team does as a favorite in week 3 when they have been dogs the last two weeks and thriving in that role.
- Duke -2.5 at Northwestern. This line has moved about 5.5 points according to my numbers as Northwestern is a 3 point favorite. They are playing with revenge, and they just got done beating Purdue on the road, but +3 TO margin signifies they were very lucky as they were out gained by the Boilermakers. I much rather play Fitzgerald as a dog not as a short favorite. Duke typically thrives in the underdog roll, and they were 5-1 ATS following a SU win a year ago.
- Oklahoma -21.5 vs. UCLA. First year head coaches as a dog in power 5 have done extremely well since 2013, and Chip Kelly will have his work cut out, but this line has moved 8.5 points and sitting at 30. Oklahoma probably looking ahead to week 3 where they'll have revenge against Iowa State.
- San Jose State +28 at Washington State. I think we are getting 6 points of line value here as Washington State went on the road and shocked Wyoming with a big margin of victory. I know a lot of sharps that were all over Wyoming, and I would have played Washington STate. This week is the week you would definitely look to fade them. Washington State in early season games vs. non-power 5 have not done well going 1-6 ATS the last 3 seasons in the first 3 weeks of the season including 2 losses against FCS opponents in 2015 & 2016. San Jose State with 14 returning starters have 2 extra days of preparation for this game having played last Thursday losing to FCS foe UC Davis.
