We are looking at the power 5 conference and breaking down teams we feel are going to be surprise teams. These are teams that will not be in the top 10 of the pre-season, but have good value to possibly make some noise against the spread and into the college football playoff and shocking a lot of people.
Texas Longhorns:
Tom Herman enters his second year, and we will continue to back him as an underdog as he is now 10-1 ATS with 7 outright upsets as a dog as a head coach. I think there is value in a wide open Big 12 Conference for Texas to make some noise and be considered at some point in the college football playoff. Texas returns 14 starters and a health Sam Ehlinger at QB. Ehlinger was a difference maker when Texas nearly upset Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry last year, but he was playing banged up down the stretch. He is the closest thing I have seen to Tim Tebow in a while and I'm interested to see what he does week 1 at Maryland who they will have revenge against. They have actually jumped to a 13 point favorite mainly because of the chaos surrounding the Maryland program. I still prefer to take this team as an under dog and I could see a couple opportunities for this in 2018. Oklahoma game in Dallas on October 6th, At Oklahoma State October 27th, but by then I think Oklahoma State's record will show they are a weaker team. All of their tougher games are at home other than their road game at Kansas State the week before Oklahoma which would actually be a good opportunity to fade Texas.
Michigan State:
If you can believe it MIchigan State is picked to finish 4th by a lot of "experts" in their division. Meanwhile they come back from a 3-9 season in 2016 and go 10-3 last year. They return a total of 19 starters, and they get Michigan and Ohio State at home. They have to go on the road to face Penn State who will be off a bye, but there are always opportunities to back this team as a dog under Mark Dantonio. Since 2012 Michigan State is 11-4 ATS as an underdog, and 3-1 ATS as a home dog. They will be home dogs twice this year and a road dog at Penn State and I will be leaning on the Spartans in all.
I think Brian Lewerke could be the best QB in the conference that nobody is talking about. He's a mobile QB that Michigan State has not had in the past and if he can improve his accuracy the offense could be just as good as the defense. They open up against Utah State and are 23.5 point favorites in week 1. They are just 4-8 ATS vs. non-conference foes the last 3 years, but they did cover in their first 2 games last year ATS vs. non-conference foes.
Florida State:
Florida State to me is flying under the radar because they lost their head coach and everyone is awarding Clemson the ACC Championship before the season starts. Florida State returns 8 starters, and Deondre Francois comes back at QB. Francois could be the best QB in the ACC. I really like his leadership skills and we will find out right away when they face Virginia Tech in week 1 as 7.5 point favorites. I would not really jump on that spread and will wait for the value later in the season, but I do feel like the potential is there to get back in the college football playoff as they will host Clemson this year. They'll have a rough 2 game road trip following Clemson going on the road to face NC State and Notre Dame to follow.
South Carolina:
I have already mentioned South Carolina as a possibly play as a 2 TD dog in week 2 against Georgia. I think they can be a surprise team as this is Will Muschamp's best defense. They also return 14 starters and get the most electrifying player in the SEC back in Deebo Samuel. They have been a very good home dog play over the years, 3-2 under Muschamp and 9-4-1 ATS dating back to 2008. Muschamp has been recruiting better than Spurrier did in his final years here so we will see what happens in his 3rd year.
They have the QB play in Jake Bentley and receiver talent to get by Georgia and if they do the schedule sets up very nice for them to be undefeated walking int o their road game at Florida on November 10th. They did go 9-4 ATS last year so I would be cautious in some games with this team especially if they do take down Georgia in week #2 like I'm predicting.
Mississippi State:
The Bulldogs are the second team out of the SEC that I'm predicting to be a possible surprise team. They don't face Alabama until November 10th and if you recall they had Alabama on the ropes last year. I think the offense under Joe Moorhead who comes over from Penn State could give some of the teams in the conference some issues. Overall they have 17 returning starters including a senior QB in Nick Fitzgerald, and RB Aeris Williams. I like Mississppi State to challenge Alabama for the division, but they will be a wait and see team under Moorhead. This is a team that has done very well as a home team going 38-28 ATS since 2018 and they'll get two key home games to test themselves before a bye when Florida and Auburn come in back to back.
Utah Utes:
My final team on the surprise list is the Utah Utes led by Kyle Whittingham. I think they finally have the talent if they can stay healthy to challenge for a PAC 12 title. We have seen glimpses of it over the years and they were 3 plays away from being a 10 win team last year. They lost to USC, Stanford, and Washington by a combined 7 points. They'll get Washington and USC at home, but they'll have to travel to STanford which will be their toughest game on the schedule. They are coming off a 10-3 ATS year and are 26-13-1 ATS in non-conference play. They open up agaisnt WEber State and go on the road to face Northern Illinois, but that's the week before Washington so that has to be a fade game for me despite being 8-2 ATS in road openers.
Utah has the QB in Tyler HUntley and a RB in Zack Moss that will give defenses a lot of issues. The defense is always pretty solid, and the special teams is a top 10 unit the last 4 years. I'll most likely be playing them week 3 as a home dog against Washington and if they can pull the upset watch out!
