When we look at the coaching changes in college football we are always looking towards what gives us betting value. In today's article we look at the non-power 5 coaching moves and a deep dive into what coaches do ATS over their first 3 seasons.
There are only 7 total coaches in their first year in group of 5 action in 2018.
1st Year Head Coach - ATS
Over the last 3 seasons first year head coaches have gone 215-230 ATS, but 120-104 as an underdog. There are no significant trends here, but the trends make sense when we compare them to the Power 5 records. We dug deep in another podcast/article on P5 1st year head coaches and their poor record as an under dog and the reasons why. For group of 5 it would make sense that they had a better record. It does not take as much to beat G5 teams and coaches are usually able to get their guys in a bit quicker and typically the coach is trying to make a real name for himself. Either way I would not use this as a be all blind betting strategy. You always have to factor in other things going on around a program, but we will get to some situational spots for a few teams on the list later in this podcast.
Central Florida - Scott Frost did a tremendous job here, but now is on to bigger and better things and Josh Heupel takes over while returning 12 starters including his starting QB McKenzie Milton, which will help a team out a lot, but is their a bit of a hangover effect for a team after a magical season? Heupel is a first time coach which always worries me. He was the Missouri OC the last two years and did some great stuff with that offense that played an up tempo approach in a conference that was not used to it, but when they played tougher opponents they struggled. I really have to study and pay close attention to the other coaches he brought with him in order to give them a solid rating.
SMU - Sonny Dykes takes over for Chad Morris, who is now at Arkansas. Dykes, of course comes over from Cal, but was not coaching last year. Overall he's 41-46 as a head coach. He did have more success in group of 5, and with 14 returning starters there could be value backing them as a dog since he does have experience as a head coach and there is not a lot of hype going on with this coaching change.
Kent State - Sean Lewis is the nation's youngest head coach. He takes over for an offense that was last in the nation in points per game, and that will likely change with the offense he brings in. Lewis spent the last 7 years under Dino Babers who runs that up tempo offense and that will go into effect immediately which will give you value on the over for this team. Especially since their defense was decent, and their offense was so bad the totals should be low. However, it's not going to happen overnight. I would expect the first couple of week's totals to be high, and if the under comes in you can come back hard on the over.
Rice - Mike Bloomgren takes over and has his work cut out with only 11 returning starters. Bloomgren comes over from Stanford where he was the offensive coordinator for the last 5 years. I really like the assistant he hired in Jerry Mack who will be the OC and was a HC for NC Central the last 4 years before that. I would say this team would have value as a dog.
UTEP - Dana Dimel takes over a team that went 0-12 last year and has just 12 returning starters. What I love about Dimel though is there is nothing for him to do but go up. Dimel comes from a rich coaching tree as he spent the last 9 years as the OC under Kansas State's Bill Snyder. There is no way this team goes 0-12 again. I'm excited to see what Dimel can do in his third stint as a head coach (Wyoming 97-99) and Houston (00-02)
Louisiana Lafayette - Billy Napier takes over as he was with Arizona State in 2017. Before that though he spent 6 season s with Alabama as a WR coach. He has 11 returning starter, 8 on offense. The defense however will get an experienced coach to take over in Ron Roberts who spent the last 6 years at FCS SE Louisiana with a lot of success.
South Alabama - Steve Campbell takes over and it will be his first year as a head coach in the FBS ranks, but he is a former national coach of the year. He comes over from Central Arkansas and had a lot of success wherever he's gone. I could see South Alabama making some noise with 13 returning starters.
2nd year HC's ATS
Unlike HC in Power 5, G5 HC's struggle in year two. They have a 107-122 ATS record as a dog. There is value to look at however when factor whether or not they are coming off successful first years or unsuccessful first years. I took a look at what coaches/teams my have value based on what they did in 2017 ATS.
Team's with 4 or less wins ATS in their first year had a 14-22 ATS record in year 2. Meaning it actually did not get better. This is not my favorite trend, because there is not a lot of data, but maybe these coaches just could not improve their team enough compared to expectations, and the same might happen in 2018. Teams falling into this scenario are: Western Kentucky, & Cincinnati.
Team's with 9 or more wins ATS in their first year have gone 14-25 ATS in their 2nd year. This makes a lot of sense to me, and we are looking at fading two teams here that had a lot of success in 2017 that will also have big numbers to cover based on public perception. Florida Atlantic, and Fresno State.
HC in year #3 ATS
These coaches went a combined 220-205 ATS, and 118-98 ATS as a dog. Finally these coaches are getting their players and program implemented, and they are ready to audition for a Power 5 job possibly.
Back HC's in year 3 following a 4 or less wins ATS. In 2018 we have six head coaches to back - BYU, East Carolina, Hawaii, Ball State, Bowling Green, Texas San Antonio.
