2018 Power 5 Coaching Changes
There are quite a few head coaching changes in 2018 in the Power 5. To be exact there are 12 new coaches and some of them are big time programs like Florida State, Florida, Texas A&M, Tennessee, and Nebraska to name a few. Here is a break down of who is in.
Scott Frost - Nebraska. He played here and he did great things at Central Florida last 2 years turning that program around. This probably has the most hype for an iconic program that has been down the last few years.
Chip Kelly - UCLA. Kelly returns from a few years in the NFL and can make his stamp on the league right away. Although I have a feeling it might take a couple years.
Jimbo Fisher - Texas A&M on a huge contract from Florida State. Not quite a lateral move is it?
Jeremy Pruitt - Tennessee. He has his work cut out for him, but coming from the Nick Saban tree has got the fan base excited.
Kevin Sumlin - Arizona. Gets to take over a program that can make noise. They have a dynamic QB in Kahlil Tate who reminds me of Lamar Jackson. Sumlin did great things with Manziel could this be a repeat?
Dan Mullen - Florida. This is the hire that will fly under the radar in my opinion. There is a lot to like about Florida this year. They rank 1st in the nation with 19 returning starters including their QB and Mullen does great things with offenses.
Herman Edwards - Arizona State. This is a head scratcher. Herm has not coached in a decade and returns to the college ranks. Have to look closely at the coaches he has surrounded himself with.
Those are the big names off the board, but there are other big name programs getting a change including Arkansas who brings in SMU HC Chad Morris to run a completely different style offense. Willie Taggart did not have much luck at Oregon, but returns to his home state to coach Florida State, a much better fit for him. Let's take a look at the hype of first year coaches in the Power 5 over the last 3 years.
1st Year HC's Against The Spread - Power 5
Over the last 3 years first year head coaches have gone 146-156 ATS. This is not a significant trend, but when you dig into it we see a 72-95 ATS mark as an underdog. It really does make sense when you think about how these teams can't quite play to the coaches potential in competitive games seeing as personel is not exactly what they probably want. Blindly fading first year head coaches as an under dog the last 3 years would resulte din 57% ATS.
However, when you take the proven coaches who can win or were dominant coordinators out of the equation you are left with a much better picture. For instance, Kirby Smart, Tom Herman, Josh Wilcox, Matt Campbell, Justin Fuente went 23-10 ATS as a dog in their first year. Comparable head coaches in my opinion would include, Dan Mullen, Scott Frost, Jimbo Fisher, and Chip Kelly. Programs you'd look to fade when they are dogs this year would be. Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Florida State, Mississippi State, Oregon, Oregon State, and Tennessee.
2nd Year Head Coaches Power 5:
Over the last 3 years Power Five Conference head coaches in their second year have gone a combined 182-152 ATS, and 83-64 ATS as an under dog. Those numbers are good for 54.5%, and 56.4% ATS respectfully. Teams falling into this category this year are: Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, California, Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor, and Ole Miss. However, I would be very careful with some of the teams who may have no value. Purdue, Oklahoma, and Texas are going to be teams that a lot of teams want to bet based on last year. I do like backing Indiana, and Tom Allen, California and Josh Wilcox, and Baylor's Matt Rhule may even jump up this year.
3rd Year Head Coaches in P5 - Last 3 Years
You would think the numbers would get even better in year 3, but the fact of the matter is they don't. The market really corrects itself from getting hit hard in year 2 of these head coaches. Overall these coaches went 147-159 ATS, and 71-80 ATS as a dog. Here are your teams with head coaches in their third year. LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri, Maryland, Rutgers, Iowa State, Syracus, Illinois, Miami, Virginia Tech, and Virginia. I expect another year of 50-50 play ATS for most of these teams and I don't really see much value.
