Many pick sixes or 97 yard passing TD's that just did not go our way. It's frustrating and I can handle the hate mail, and the shitty things people say. You have to have thick skin to be in this business. I haven't turned it around and this shit is starting to leak into the good season I was having in the NFL as well.
At the end of the day there is a lot of variability in small sample sizes. That's currently what's going on right now. I believe in my process. I will continue that process and work as hard as I can to turn this around. I'm still confident that we will.
Let's move on and talk about this week's games.
This week there were 23 games that Vegas was off by 2 TD's or more. This should set up value for future weeks.
Iowa State for the 4th week in a row covered the spread by 14.5 points over TCU this time. I was on TCU -6.5 and I don't normally take favorites like that, but when you look at this game it was simply a victim of variability as TCU dominated the box score. I also felt like referee's were against TCU here with all the holding calls they had in this game it just seemed obvious as TCU simply lost this game with 1 1penalties for 104 yards.. Kenny Hill that I have killed on this show so much in the past showed up with 2 key turnovers inside Iowa State's 10 yard line that altered this game completely. Let's talk about the first turnover which was nearly a pick six the other way as Hill over throws the running back in the flat who could have walked into the end zone. TCU actually got into Iowa State's territory 3 times, but scored 0 points!
Illinois covered the spread against Wisconsin by 14.5 points, but Wisconsin got moved up to #4 in the AP and Coaches Poll. It's almost a spot you don't want to jump to. We saw TCU #4 team go down last week on the road. However, the last time Wisconsin did not cover the spread by 2TD's was in week #2 against Florida Atlantic. The following week they covered by 2+ TD's. I'd look to back them, because they clearly need a statement victory, but this week going on the road at Indiana is a challenge. Indiana has been so good against the run, and they have played Michigan State, Michigan, and Penn State very tough. All who play a similar style of offense and defense. They are 9.5 point favorites at Indiana and I would lean towards Indiana to possibly finally pull the upset.
Boston College covered the spread by 38 points. That's the third week in a row that Boston College has covered the spread by 14+ points against the spread with covers of 38, 38, and 22 points. Boston College dominated on defense allowing only 213 yards and Jimbo Fisher has to be on the hot seat at this point. Florida State plays Syracuse at home as 4 point favorites, and while you think there is line value, Syracuse is off a bye and has been playing the big boys tough. LSU, NC State, Clemson and Miami all close games and all 4 of those teams are better than Florida State right now. Hard to go against Florida State after I have backed them many times in the past so I'll just pass, but I think Syracuse would be the way to go there. On the flip side Boston College has a bye and you can't ignore how they looked for the majority of their game against Clemson and then the last three games so I can't necessarily look to fade them either. They'll host NC State next week who has Clemson this week. That will be an awfully bad spot for NC State and their season dreams could be completely over at that point so we will see.
Pitt covered the spread by 16 points against the spread over Virginia. We play Virginia on the money line and this score was certainly closer than the final indicates. Virginia actually outgained Pitt by 4 yards int his game, but were 1 for 5 on 4th down which cost them countless times in Pitt territory. It was too obvious that they were going to run, and not get it, but they did so anyway. There was also a 75 yard punt return for a TD for Pitt on terrible tackling by Virginia. Virginia had 6 trips inside Pitt's territory and just 2.33 points per trip to show for it. I guess that's better than aforementioned TCU who got into Iowa State territory 3 times and scored 0 points.
Florida International who we gave out as our free play at +17 was an outright upset over Marshall 41-30 as they covered the spread by 26 points. FIU might be a good fade candidate moving forward.
Georgia dominated Florida in their rivalry game winning 42-7 and covering the spread by 22 points. Jim McElwain out as head coach of the Gators in a peculiar situation. I guess he was claiming he and his family and players were getting death threats, but they actually weren't. When the University wanted to look into it I guess he backed off his story? Just a weird situation. I look for Scott Frost, UCF's current head coach to be the new guy here. For some reason this meant a 6 point move in the spread from where it opened last week as they go on the road to face Missouri who is now a 3 point favorite over Florida. Missouri playing well lately, but stepping it up in conference play has not gone well for them under Barry Odom.
Notre Dame covered the spread by 14 points over NC State. Two things that frustrated me about this game. One we start the game with NC State losing their most dynamic offensive player in Nyheim Hines. I knew at that point that luck just was not on our side. Still NC State is well coached and they battled to a 21-14 defecit at half time and you had the feeling that they had a shot. They get the ball to start the 3rd quarter and drive into Notre Dame Territory. Finley, NC State's QB hikes the ball and his offensive line doesn't move, because Notre Dame clearly offside. Finley just hucks it up as a "free play." The refs never threw a flag and it's a pick six the other way. Just atrocious. If you want to see the play so you don't think I'm crazy I have linked the youtube video in my article: Tune in 1:35:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQ04IbBsbSM
Texas covered by 21 points against the spread over Baylor. This game started with a pick six off a dropped pass by a Baylor receiver. Third possession they fumble it in their own territory and Texas took over on the 15 yard line. In the 3rd quarter another fumble gave Texas excellent position in the red zone. Simply a messy game that Baylor definitely did not deserve to cover, but plenty of mistakes make this a misleading cover by Texas who now in the under dog role again this week against a ranked opponent in TCU.
Houston covered the spread by 14 points over South Florida as they upset them on the road 28-24. We gave out Houston +10.5 here and it was one of our few solid plays over the weekend. I've been saying it all along that South Florida is over rated. I don't think Houston necessarily deserved to win this game, but they were able to stop the running game of Quinton Flowers which was truly impressive. I would look to fade Houston this week against East Carolina as they probably will let off the gas after back to back weeks playing the best the conference offers. South Florida goes on the road to face Uconn, and I would fade them again, because they are in a spot where they just got their bubble burst. All the New Year Day bowl game dreams are gone. We saw the same thing from San Diego State when they lost to Boise. They came back the following week and lost 3-27 to Fresno.
Oregon covered against the spread by 23 points over Utah. Shocking result because Oregon's QB Justin Herbert did not play again and Utah had their QB back Tyler Huntley for the second week in a row and Utah missed covering the spread by another big number for the second week in a row. 21+ points in back to back weeks. Utah will play Friday night against UCLA and they will enjoy a massive coaching advantage and are 5 point favorites, but I don't know if I can touch Utah after missing covering the spread in back to back weeks.
Missouri covered the spread by 26.5 points against the spread over Uconn. Missouri has now made this list in back to back weeks and there is little surprise that they did so against non power 5 schools Idaho and Uconn. Their 52-12 win was a bit misleading when you factor in Uconn got it into Missouri territory 6 times, but came away with only 10 points. Missouri is definitely playing better since their bye, and now they are 3.5 point home favorites against Florida. Florida fired their coach and we often see value backing those type of teams. I need to read more, but Florida +3.5 is a definite play option this coming week. Buy low on Florida where the sky is falling.
Miss State covered the spread by 17.5 points over Texas A&M. There was nothing misleading about this final as Miss State got it done on the road and at night at Kyle Field. They have definitely proven they are in that next tier of SEC teams right under Alabama. I still think there will be opportunity to fade them. I had leaned Texas A&M before the game with them coming off a bye and being at home I thought it was a good opportunity with Miss State coming off a big blowout win the week before to fade them. However, a closer look and I was not confident A&M could stop the run and they couldn't as Miss State ran for 228 yards. Miss State will play host to Umass this week as a 28 point favorite. Umass has been on a role, and it's worth noting that they played SEC Tennessee tough on the road and Miss State likely looking ahead to their home game vs. Mass this week. Lean Umass +28, but I think we can get this over 30 later in the week most likely.
UAB covered the spread by 29.5 points as they beat Southern Miss on the road as they continue to be a wonderful story this year.
Texas State covered by 30 points against the spread over Coastal Carolina.
Arizona covered the spread by 20 points ATS over Washington State.
Boise State covered the spread over Utah State by 14 points ATS
USC covered the spread and looked like USC in their win over Arizona State.
UNLV covered by 32.5 points ATS over Fresno State who was on this list just last week.
Air Force covered the spread by 26.5 points over Colorado State.
Kansas covered the spread by 15 over Kansas State.
Toledo covered the spread by 15.5 points over Ball State
Oregon State covered the spread by 20 points against Stanford.
Memphis continues to cruise and covered the spread by 19.5 points over Tulane.
Air Force covered the spread by 26.5 points over Colorado State.
Kansas covered the spread by 15 over Kansas State.
Teams on this list multiple times for covering the spread 14+ - Taking away week 1
What is interesting is 5 of the teams on this list just moved to the list in week 8 for not covering the spread by more than 2 TD's. Proving our theory a bit. In my eyes there are 3 teams to possibly fade. Iowa State, Notre Dame, and Boston College, Arizona, FAU, and others.
1. Utah State 3x (3 of last 6) moved to the not cover list last week.
2. Florida Atlantic 5x (4 of last 5) covered the spread again
3. Notre Dame 5x (4 of last 5 weeks had a bye)
4. Iowa State 5x (4 weeks in a row)
5. Miss State 4x (2 weeks in a row)
6. Boston College 3x (last 3 weeks) 38, 38, 22 point covers ATS
7. Arizona State 3x (2 out of 3 weeks) just moved to the not cover list.
8. Arizona 3 x (2 out of 3 weeks)
9. Marshall 3x (3 of last 5 weeks) just moved to the not cover list last week.
10. Ohio State 3x (3 of last 5 weeks had a bye)
11. Wash State 2x (2 of last 4) just moved to the not cover list last week.
12. Nevada 2x (2 of last 4)
13. Arkansas State 2x (2 out of the last 3) covered again last week by 12.5.
14. Fresno State 2x (2 out of the last 3 weeks) just moved to the not cover list last week.
15. Pittsburgh 2x (2 weeks in a row)
16. FIU 2X (2 out of L3 weeks)
17. Missouri 2 weeks in a row
Fading teams that made the list 2 or more times in a row
Teams 2 in a row 7-6 ATS Week 10 Miss State, Pitt, Missouri
2 out of 3 weeks 1-3 ATS Fade Arizona & Boise State Week #10
2 out of 4 1-2 ATS Fade Memphis week 10 (2 of 4)
Teams 3 in a row 2-1 ATS (Notre Dame & BC Week 10)
Teams 3 of 4 0-1 ATS
Teams 4 in a row
Iowa State has now covered the spread by 14+ points 4 weeks in a row.
Teams on the list multiple times for not covering the spread 14+
2x in a row Back 8-2 ATS 2 losses covered the following week. Week #10 - Back Virginia & Utah.
2 of 3 Back 4-5 ATS Week #10 Back Wash State, Tulane, Colorado State
2 of 4 Back 3-3 ATS Week #10 Back Uconn
2 of 5 Back 1-3 ATS Week #10 Back Southern Miss
3 of 4 Push
3 of 5 1-0 ATS Week #10 Coastal Carolina, Ball State
3 of 6 2-1 ATS Week #10 Middle Tennessee
