For today's podcast we will only look at MOV for college football against the spread and on Totals. In our next podcast we will look at misleading finals to find any contradicting facts that will lead to my top 5 fade list and top 5 back list for week #3.
- Duke easily covered the spread over Northwestern by 26 points and got an easy victory as a 3 point home dog. Big win for the ACC over the Big Ten.
- Maryland covered the spread by 20.5 points over Towson. Maryland is going to be getting a lot of hype moving forward, but I don't know if it's warranted.
- Florida Atlantic covered by 17.5 points ATS over Wisconsin. I was one week late on this team although a closer look reveals that they were lucky to be playing a close game.
- Eastern Kentucky covered by 22.5 points ATS over Kentucky. Look for Kentucky to possibly have value moving forward.
- Wake Forest covered the spread by 24 points in a pickem game, but stay tuned to my misleading final scores on this one.
- Middle Tennessee covered the spread by 14.5 points and got the outright upset at Syracuse. Syracuse likely to get a big downgrade by Vegas, but it's too early to tell if it is warranted.
- TCU covered the spread by 18 points. This was a rough one as I gave out Arkansas as a premium play. The final was a bit misleading is one of the worst teams in that nation right now as it's taking them 38 yards to score 1 point. So they are moving the ball, but they just aren't finding success.
- Texas covered the spread by 29.5 points over San Jose State. This might be a result of them not covering the spread by nearly 30 points the previous week. Vegas probably doesn't know what to do with this team right now, but 17 point dogs at USC could be off big time again this week.
- Kent State did not cover the spread over Howard by 17.5 points.
- Central Michigan covered the spread by 21 point and Kansas who everyone including myself thought were going to improve this year are not looking good. I expect an over reaction by Vegas and there could be value on Kansas moving forward. Kansas was on my leans for this past week, but I'm glad it wasn't a play.
- Texas A&M did not cover the spread by 27.5 points. Interesting considering Kevin Sumlin is on the hot seat. Their last 6 quarters of football have looked pretty bad. I expect A&M to maybe have value based on this small sample size.
- UNLV covered the spread by 33 points this week over Idaho. I wouldn't over react to Idaho. I was hitting myself, because after UNLV lost to Howard the week before I thought there was value as they should have been a 2-3 point favorite at Idaho, but I couldn't back them. However, that just shows you the value of backing a team that missed covering the spread the week before. Vegas missed by 48 points and 33 points with UNLV.
- Oklahoma covered the spread by 22.5 over Ohio State. I hit this game pretty hard in live betting with Oklahoma as an underdog. It was very evident that Oklahoma was able to move the ball at will on that defense and Baker Mayfield is my new favorite for the Heisman.
- Miss State covered the spread by 26 points over LA Tech. Could LA Tech been looking ahead to their conference showdown with Western Kentucky? More to come on that.
- Illinois covered the spread by 18 points as our POD cashed easily over aforementioned Western Kentucky. However watching this game Illinois might have gotten a little lucky to win this game. I would look to fade Illinois moving forward.
- Texas San Antonio over Baylor by 18.5 points. How far does Baylor get moved down? The question is how long is it going to take Matt Rhule to get this team to start looking like his team. It's a completely new system and it's going to take time, but at some point there will be value on Baylor. They are 14 point dogs at Duke who covered their spread by 26.
- Minnesota covered their spread by an amazing 36.5 points. This was another game I was talked out of backing Minnesota. The spread was obviously a major error and maybe it was based on Minnesota's struggles vs. Buffalo the week before. Oregon State is just bad and so is the majority of the PAC 12 I have decided.
How many of these teams match up like Duke and Baylor?
- Central Michigan covered the spread by 21 points while Syracuse did not cover the spread by 14.5 and the opening line of -7.5 Syracuse moved to -10.5 because there was 4 points of value by the numbers.
Here are the totals that Vegas was way off on in week #2 and I make the number to follow 21 total points.
- Utah State went over the total by 29 points against Idaho State. They scored 51 points so their totals might have value on the under moving forward.
- Maryland went over the total by 25 points which is worth mentioning as I see their totals being jacked up moving forward.
- Iowa/Iowa State went over the total by 36 points. The game did go to over time and there were many big plays. We will see if this inflates their totals moving forward.
- UAB/Ball State went over the total by 28.5 points.
- Colorado and Texas State went under the total by 16.5 points. I bring it up because Colorado's defense is playing above and beyond what they can play moving forward. Right now it takes their opponent 113 yards to score 1 point. Meaning it would take over 700 yards to score a TD. That's just absurd. The unders with Colorado will have value moving forward.
- Rutgers vs. Eastern Michigan. The total was far too high and I think an adjustment would be correct as it went under the total by 22 points.
- Syracuse and Middle Tennesse went under the total of 72 by 19 points. These two high scoring teams might have value on playing over after we look closer at the box score.
- Arkansas vs. TCU, the game went under the total of 56.5 by 21.5 points. Arkansas is among the worst teams in the nation as it takes them 38.1 yards to score a point. That will likely change and the over could have value moving forward. TCU's defense also not as good as it seems so again I expect value on the over moving forward for both teams.
- Tulsa and UL Lafayette went over the total by 48.5 points. We should see some inflated lines. I don't know that I want to go against Tulsa on the under, but Lafayette might be a good option to fade on the over moving forward.
- SMU and North Texas went over the total by 21.5 points.
- Auburn and Clemson went under the total by 36 points. This was a premium play for our clients this past weekend as the two top 10 defenses really took over in this game. Auburn's offense is better than they showed and should have value on the over moving forward in the right match up.
- Missouri and South Carolina went under the total by 27. Mainly because the total was set too high at 71, but Missouri turned the ball over and despite out gaining their opponent lost by 18. This was an unfortunate loss for clients of mine with Misosuri -2.5.
- Western Kentucky and Illinois went under the total by 24.5 points. Both offenses looked really bad so I can't see a value taking either one on the over.
- Washington State vs. Boise State went over the total by 33 points. Nobody expected Boise to play this well and I could definitely see value in their unders moving forward.
So do any teams match up this week where we might have double value? For instance if Boise State matched up against UL Lafayette we would have a high total, but would it be warranted?
Iowa went over the total in their game with Iowa State and so did North Texas by 21.5 points against SMU (fast paced offense). There should be value on the under when this total comes out.
Unfortunately that's the only game where we have two teams going over the total or under the total in their previous match up by large margins and are now facing off. However, we will dissect each of these games in our misleading score podcast to review to figure out if any big adjustments by the oddsmakers will be warranted.
