Misleading Final Scores Week #2
Pittsburgh out gained Penn State by 30 yards, but lost by 19. Pitt really held Penn State's offense in check for most of the game holding them to just 312 total yards. Penn State actually held a +17.6 yard edge in field position and were +2 in turnover margin which really made the difference here. There is definitely going to be value backing Pitt moving forward which we could see as early as this week. Despite being close to the spread Vegas (21, they lost by 19) set I think they are much better. Pitt is a 14 point home dog against Oklahoma State. Pitt lost in a shootout last year at Oklahoma State making this a very interesting line.
Florida International only wins by 7 points, but outgained FCS foe Alcorn State by 196 yards. I was high on FIU coming into the year with Butch Davis taking over and it seems like they are just getting their team together still even with an experienced bunch. FIU was -1 in TO margin. They had 9 drives resulting in 7 going into their opponent territory, but only 3 of those got into the red zone. They were able to move the ball, but they did not score points. I still think this team is better than they have shown and they are a 25.5 point dog at Indiana this week. Clearly value on FIU in my opinion.
Clemson +167 yards, but only won by 8 points. The Tigers held Auburn's "high octane offense" to under 2 yards per play. What really hurt Clemson in this game were the turnover as they were -2. The other thing I will say is early in this game it looked like Auburn was going to be able to move the ball, but that all ended rather quickly. We played the under on this match up and it looks like Clemson defense is the real deal. Kelly Bryant at QB looked better than his stats indicated as he missed a couple guys down field. I expect that to be corrected and they have a big road game this week against Louisville. Clemson a 3 point favorite and despite the sharp movement I think we have value.
Miami Ohio won by 21 points, but they were only +25 yards against Austin Peay. I was surprised how bad their offense looked in this game, but they were able to get 31 points with under 300 yards of offense. Their defense is the real deal, but they have questions in their special teams. They host Cinci this week and are 5 point favorites which I feel is a bit inflated. Would love to get them at -3.
Wisconsin only won by 17 points against Florida Atlantic a team that did not even know if they were going to be able to make the trip. FAU had so many distractions with the hurricane, but they came all the way up and played the game anyway leaving family and what not behind. A closer look shows that Wisconsin was actually +316 total yards in this game, but had -2 TO margin. FAU had just 3 trips in Wisconsin territory, but were able to score 14 points. I still feel like Wisconsin is one of the best teams in the country, but we are seeing them as a 14 point road favorite this week at BYU not a spot I'd like to take them.
Hawaii +10 yards against UCLA, but they lost by 33 points. UCLA is getting all kinds of good press right now for their come back in week 1 over Texas A&M and Josh Rosen being a likely candidate for the Heisman. They had 7 trips in Hawaii's territory all 7 led to TD's and they averaged 9.18 yards per play. Hawaii, meanwhile also had 7 trips into UCLA's territory, but only averaged 3 points per trip having to settle for field goals. Hawaii averaged over 6 yards per play! Fade UCLA moving forward. I still feel like they are one dimensional on offense and their defense is not very good. They open as road favorites at Memphis of -3 points, but the value lies with Memphis in my opinion as UCLA looks ahead to Stanford.
Louisville +304 yards, but only wins by 12 over North Carolina. I still don't know what to make out of Louisville. This is the second week in a row they have had a misleading final. They get Clemson at home this week and I'll likely be on Clemson, but I won't be surprised if Louisville pulls the upset somehow. They should have won by 30 over North Carolina. I will say this about Louisville. Their defense is not as good as they allowed 6.57 yards per play against North Carolina, a team that lost a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball and struggled to score against California in week #1.
Louisiana Tech was -144 yards and lost by 36 points. They clearly deserved to lose the game, but they probably should not have given up 57 points to Mississippi State and that would lead to value on LA Tech moving forward. First of all Miss State only had 459 yards. They were +2 in TO margin, their average field position was the 36.2 yard line. LA Tech also gave up a punt block for a TD, a fumble returned for 90 yards. They play Western Kentucky this week and I would say they have value at +7 and wouldn't be shocked if they pull an upset.
Nebraska lost by only 7 points and covered the spread, but they were -207 yards and it seemed like Oregon sort of checked out after they got a huge lead. Nebraska had just 361 yards total and scored 35 points. This game was 42-14 at the half. Nebraska turned the ball over 4 times and had nearly an identical averaged field position so the final score to me makes little sense. I would still look to fade Nebraska. I'm not as high on them as many and Oregon played their game in the first half so I expect them to have value moving forward as they did not cover this spread. They open up as a 14 point favorite on the road against Wyoming while Nebraska is a 14.5 point favorite over Northern Illinois.
Missouri +64 yards but lose by 18 points. Probably one of the most frustrating misleading finals as Missouri turned the ball over 3 times and multiple times in South Carolina's territory. Overall, this was a much closer game than the final indicated. Missouri averaged just 2.6 points in South carolina's territory compared to 4.80 for the Gamecocks. I won't be rushing to back this team, but I will be looking at fading South Carolina moving forward and it may happen as soon as this week against Kentucky as they are 6.5 home favorites.
Stanford -281 total yards lost by 18 points despite being the luckiest team this past week in turnovers. Stanford was not even close to covering the spread and definitely did not have a chance to win the game. The one thing I will say is that USC has an obvious weakness in stopping the run. Can a playoff team really have this big of a weakness? USC has allowed 5.85 yards per carry. Unfortunately, Stanford could not get any stops and had to turn away from the run game as they only rushed the ball 26 times. Tom Herman and Texas visit USC this week and I think they could have success shortening the game, but I'm not about to stand in front of USC. I also am not going to fade Stanford as I think they just had a bad game.
Arkansas lost by 21 points, but were only -94 in total yards. Arkansas had just 1.75 points per trip in their opponents territory in this game. They averaged the same amount of yards per play, but were -19 total plays in this game and they were even +1 in turnover margin. TCU got a defensive TD late, and they dominated the field position battle by 10 yards which really changed what Arkansas could do in this one. I would look to fade TCU, and as much as I like to back Arkansas I think I am done with this team for a while. TCU is a 20 point favorite at home this week against SMU.
Maryland +225 yards and they win by 46 points. The stats just do not add up and Maryland is playing above and beyond what they should. We saw this a year ago as well and then things fell apart for Maryland. I am predicting some opportunities in the future to fade Maryland.
Utah was +197 yards over BYU but only won by 6 points in the holy war game. I have yet to watch this game, but I heard Utah's new offense looked good and on paper they had 5.89 yards per play, and 8 possessions that went into BYU territory, but they only averaged 2.38 points per trip. Utah plays host to San Jose State as a 27 point favorite which is the same as Texas. I think there is value in that line at the moment.
Michigan State outgained Western Michigan by 262 yards, but only won by 14 points. Likely should have won 21-24 points, but Michigan State is very quietly making a point that they are not the same team as last year. I think they will continue to play with a chip on their shoulder based on how last year went where they lost a lot of close games. Michigan State held Western Michigan to only 195 yards. They had just 1 trip in Michigan State territory and did not score. Their 14 points came on a fumble return for 67 yards, and a 100 yard kick off return. Their offense did absolutely nothing. Value towards the under and Michigan State moving forward. Meanwhile Western Michigan plays host to Idaho who missed covering the spread against UNLV. This line is definitely a bit higher than it should be at 20.5.
California was -140 yards, but were able to somehow win by 13 points. The Cal defense is making some noise especially in their red zone as they held Weber State to 2.86pts per trip in their territory. It's hard to ignore the fact that Weber State had 571 total yards of offense, but had a -2 turnover margin. Cal could be in trouble against Ole Miss this week and are 3 point home dogs already.
Boston College was -4 total yards, but they lose their game by 24 points. This game was pk and it appears Vegas had it right, but Wake Forest was able to get 4 turnovers and hold BC to 2 points per trip in their territory. Wake opened up as a 16 point favorite over Utah State and quickly moved to 14. Meanwhile BC will host Notre Dame and opened up as a 15.5 point dog and moved to 13.5. Notre Dame seems to have an offense that is pretty easy to plan for right now and if Boston College gets back up to 14.5 I would probably back BC.
Top 5 fade list
- Maryland they cover ATS by 20.5 and Vegas will clearly be making an adjustment, but I don't feel like it is warranted due to their misleading final score and some of their obvious weaknesses of stopping the pass and passing the ball against a defense that can stop the run.
- Misssissippi State they covered the spread by 26, but they were only +144 yards winning by 36 total points is misleading. We know Vegas quickly will make an adjustment.
- California -140 yards to an FCS team and you still win the game. That's two wins in a row and that may be the ceiling for luck for this team.
- UCLA we have seen hype on their sides in the past. Jim Mora even got coach of the week after Josh Rosen saved his ass and his job in week #1. They have many holes that will soon be very evident. They were just outgained by Hawaii.
- South Carolina easily covered the spread by two touchdowns, but as we know Missouri outgained them in the game. The 3 turnovers cost them as they were driving.
Certainly a few of these will end up being premium ncaaf picks at some point this season.
