Each Tuesday morning I will send out this betting recap to give you insight into what went well and what went wrong and give you additional insight into our recommendations.
Week 2 was a very unlucky week in my opinion with two really tough losses in college football that easily could have been or should have been winners.
Easiest winner - This had to be the Saints +6.5, which was a late release. I felt confident that Kubiak would really help Derek Carr this year. While I was worried about the Cowboys pass rush, I also like the fact that the Cowboys were coming off a win where they did not particularly look as good as the scoreboard. I think that gave us some extra line value, and I figured Dennis Allen's defensive scheme would keep the Saints in the game. This one was never in doubt as the Saints cruised to a 44-19 victory. I wish all of them could be this way.Overall here is the break down.
Worst pick - Easily UCLA +3.5 eUCLA in their Big 10 opener with an extra week to prepare against Indiana. I totally underestimated the Indiana roster and coaching staff. I did not expect a 42-13 blowout by the hands of Indiana, which is basically the James Madison team from last year.
Unlucky result - Easily could say the Giants +1.5 more below, but the Lions -1.5 teaser leg could be up there, while in college football TCU -1 blew a 21 point lead late, and East Carolina +105 our ML dog of the week blew a 16 point lead late.
Lucky result - Not a lot luck this week, but I would say Bengals/Chiefs Under result by a half point is probably the luckiest result.
Overall result (-9.12% week), just not acceptable, but it is 1 week, and we are all about long term results. Either way I hate seeing this negative change in bankroll.
Sides went 7-7 for -7.2%, and huge bulk of that was our signature play of the day (POD), which has gone 61% ATS since 2015. The Giants +1.5 were the first team ever to score 3 TD's, and not allow any TD's and still lose the game. Their kicker got hurt on the opening kickoff and they went for 2 every time and failed, and could not kick field goals and failed on 4th down conversions. This was easily the largest unlucky result of the week.
Totals 5-2 +4.6% The lone bright spot of the week although it is not lost on me that a couple of the college football totals that got through very late in the game could have easily gone the other way, and our free NFL Play on the Chiefs/Bengals Under 48.5 got through by half a point. Very important to have multiple books to shop lines.
Teasers 0-1 -3.3% - Our NFL teaser was a huge dissapointment with the Lions losing outright to the Bucs. WE had the Lions lined up at -1.5, and they outgained the Bucs by 250 yards, but lost the game due to their failures in the red zone. This will happen with the Lions, because they plays uper aggressive there is going to be a lot of variance unfortunately I always question myself fading or backing the Lions on any recommendation, because I personally do not like the variance they offer with going for it on every single 4th down no matter the case.
NFL Props 7-7 -1.13% - If you are a long time client of mine you know this is a new thing for me, and we need to be super conservative with the % we are giving out. Monday night we went 3-1 to cap off the week. The biggest hurt was Alvin Kamara over 3.5 receptions for 1.2%, which is a large % for a prop. The Saints were up big and Kamara's receiving was a huge part of that with a 50+ yard receiving TD, but this was a loser as the Saints changed their offensive play calling in the second half to protect the lead they had, which was unfortunate for our bet.
