Boise State vs. UCF ––––––––––
UCF honestly should have covered this game if it wasn’t for their pick 6. Boise was particularly lucky as they had 3 fumbles and lost none of them. They were dominated in time of possession and were outgained in the game 573 to 283 yet they score 31 points and only lose by 5. Boise State is a major favorite Friday night at home by 26 points against UTEP, and have Power 5 Oklahoma State on deck. UTEP has been impressive in their 2 games and rank 15th in EPA/play margin. UCF plays Bethune-Cookman.
North Carolina gets upset by Virginia Tech
North Carolina was only a 5 point favorite to begin with here, so I don’t want to over react. They did outgain Virginia Tech 354 to 296 but had 3 turnovers. Their offensive line did not play well at all, and I will look for them to probably right the ship a bit here against Georgia State as a 25.5 point favorite. Virginia Tech gets Middle Tennessee, a week before they’ll get West Virginia and the week after a major upset so this is a major sandwich game for Virginia Tech who was not supposed to be good.
Oklahoma nearly loses to Tulane as a 31 point favorite.
Oklahoma survived with a 55% post game win expectancy, and only enjoyed +.5 yards per play advantage in the game, and only 45.3% success rate. Spencer Rattler had a great game, but what will be the highlight is his two interceptions. I’m more concerned with Oklahoma’s defense giving up 35 points. Oklahoma may find some line value in the future due to this result, but this week they play Morgan State.
Wisconsin loses to Penn State
The story of the game is Wisconsin had 4 opportunities inside Penn State’s 25, and got 0 points. It was very evident that Graham Mertz struggled at QB for Wisconsin and the data backs it up. He had a -.696 total passing EPA, (outside top 100), and -12.5 points lost to turnovers and sacks. Penn State is in a major sandwich game this week against Ball State as a 22 point home favorite the week before Auburn. Will they use that momentum or look ahead to the SEC Auburn.
Texas beats a ranked opponent
Texas debut of their new HC Sark was great ast hey won and easily covered the spread against a ranked G5 team Lafayette who beat Iowa State last year. This is just one game, but Hudson Card looked great at QB for Texas, but Lafayette still had 22 first downs in this game and were only -77 total yards in the 20 point loss. Texas gets Arkansas this week and are a 7 point road favorite.
Clemson vs Georgia
Clemson was our top play, and a clear loser, but the difference was with Clemson driving and a pick six, which was at minimum a 10 point play for Georgia in the game. Both defenses dominated in this game, and Clemson’s offensive line really looked bad as they continue their struggles of creating balance in the running game. These two defenses will carry them, but I’m still looking to fade Georgia when they play good defenses, and the same will be for Clemson.
Iowa dominates Indiana in a top 25 battle
Iowa was up 31-3 at the half, and probably took the foot off the break in the second, but they only outgained Indiana by 70 yards, and had a pick six to help their scoring along with 3 total turnovers forced. Iowa is a 4.5 point dog at Iowa State. Iowa State gets a ton of hype because of Matt Campbell, but they can never seem to get past Iowa, so it’s very interesting to see them as a 4.5 point dog.
Duke loses to Charlotte
We gave out Duke as a premium play, and I thought we were on the right side. Duke had opportunities to go up multiple times in the 4th quarter by 10 points and lose this game. Their 2 turnovers, one at the goal line was the biggest reason, and they outgained Charlotte by 102 yards. Charlotte however, dominated time of possession and had a balanced offensive game with 478 total yards. They could not stop Durant who had 255 yards and 3 TD. I think Duke covers this Friday against an FCS foe, but Charlotte may be in a hang over spot against Gardner-Webb.
Arkansas dominates the 4th quarter
By scoring 3 TD’s in the 4th quarter Arkansas looked better than they actually were as they only outgained Rice by 65 total yards and were out first downed and lost the battle for time of possession by over 8 minutes. Rice had the lead at the half and extended it to 17-7 before Arkansas woke up. There is no buy low sell high opportunity here, because Rice plays Houston this week who lost to Texas Tech
Rutgers dominates 61-14, but is that the real story?
Temple cut this game to 26-14 in the third qurter, but had 5 turnovers in this game and were dominated in time of possession. Temple was also just 1-3 on 4th down and 2-13 on third down, but their defense played better than the 61 points they allowed. Rutgers is not this good and Temple is not this bad. Rutgers defense played well, and their offense not nearly as good as the total point output. We may have value this week on Rutgers vs. Syracuse under, but I’m not sure Rutgers should be a 2 point road favorite at Syaracuse.
Syracuse won and covered the spread
Syracuse defense did not give up any TD’s in this game, which was very impressive, but they did allow Ohio to move the ball on the ground and through the air. I don’t think Syaracuse defense is as good as they showed, so this week’s game against Rutgers is very interesting.
Texas A&M dominated Kent State
They win 41-10 despite 5 turnovers as they had 4 interceptions. I could only imagine what the score would have been if they did not turn the ball over. Yet, I’m not rushing to back a team that threw 4 interceptions and will be heavy favorites all year including this week on the road against Colorado.
Washington gets upset by MONTANA,
Yes you read that right, and it happened at home. Maybe they were looking ahead to Michigan, maybe Jimmy Lake is not a good head coach, but the stats show that it was the -3 turnover margin that did it along with the offense struggles as they only had 291 yards in the game, but they did enjoy 21-10 first down edge. Washington was a 2 point dog before the games were played and now they are a 6.5 point dog at Michigan. Classic buy low sell high situation here.
Week 2 leans
Again I still don’t know that we know a ton about these teams so I find my leans in either misleading finals or just some of these line moves. I spoke in previous podcasts on week 1 and week 2 steam moves and fading them or backing them in the G5 or P5. Here are the situations and the games they impact for week 2.
Group of 5 steam move of 2-3.5 points for G5 as an away dog has gone just 12-24 ATS since 2015 including this year and last week where it went 1-4ATS. Two games fall into this week. Toledo +18.5 against Notre Dame at open is down to +16.5. Unless Toledo falls down to +14.5, Notre Dame is the play at -16.5. UAB opened at +26.5 now down to +24.5, unless it gets to +22.5, Georgia is the play. It almost seems that early money to push the line down under key numbers like Notre Dame -16.5. The same is true for away favorites moving 2-3.5 points they are just 3-10 ATS, and San Diego State opened as a +1.5 dog and is now a 1 point favorite so the play would be on Arizona +1.
Now moving onto the P5 we have several situations we are tracking, but overall if you blindly fade line moves of 2-3.5 points since 2015 during week 1 and week 2 involving a P5 team you would have gone 74-49 ATS including 5-5 last week.
Fading P5 team steam moves for favorites 2-3.5 points is 46-26 ATS. We have several this week.
Eastern Michigan +24 to +26 would be the play over Wisconsin
Cal +11.5 from +9.5 vs. TCU
Tenn +3.5 form +1 vs. Pitt
Oregon +14.5 from +12 vs. Ohio State
Arkansas from +4.5 to +7 vs. Texas
Stanford +13.5 to +17 vs. USC
Here is the catch though, bc you have to play them late, and in this situation you aren’t going to get the better number. If the line moves 4+ points the favorites are actually 23-13 ATS including 18-9 at home. So if Ohio State shoots up to 16 or more they would become the play. The idea really is that there is a massive mistake in the opening #, and the books have no choice but to react and adjust throughout the week. I would stay away from this personally as my stats are only related to the opening and closing #, but one game fits into this situation this week, and it’s
South Carolina +2 to -2.5, which is a 4.5 point move, and seems warranted.
