This game has been postponed and our bet has been canceled, but for those who don't subscribe to our plays here is a snapshot of our analysis.
Memphis +150 2% Play
If you take away last week's games Memphis would have been a favorite with 15 returning starters they are the most experienced team in the AAC. They have their QB back in Riley Ferguson which provides a QB edge, but Memphis is a dog for a few different reasons. They are banged up on defense, but I expect them to win with their offense anyway. Memphis looked bad last week in their 37-29 win over LA Monroe while UCF looked like the best team in the AAC in their win over FIU. I don't want to take that one game too seriously. I still think UCF has major questions in their secondary which makes for a miserable match up with Memphis.
Memphis in their game struggled a bit offensively, but the weather had a lot to do with it as it was a monsoon. Fergusson really did not have an opportunity to throw the ball, and the running game averaged 8.2 ypc despite LA Monroe knowing it was coming and despite them losing their starting RB Doroland Dorceus. Memphis could not really play to their strengths. There will be scattered thunderstorms, but overall I think the weather will be fine. They moved this game up because of Hurricane Irma otherwise this would have been a bigger play for me. Expect a very high scoring game, but I will back the better QB here and I think they also have an edge in special teams with Tony Pollard returning kicks. Memphis has been ranked the #2 or #3 special teams unit the last 5 years in a row. In a game where I don't figure field goals to come into play as much I see more value in the money line than the +3 or +3.5 so I look for Memphis to pull the upset.
