The 2020 season brought new challenges to handicapping college football odds. With the uncertainty of players opting out, or being forced out due to COVID-19 or just being near someone who had COVID-19. It made logitcal sense to me that you may not want to follow and back steam moves early in the season where there is a lot of uncertainty. In 2020 If you faded steam moves of 2-3.5 poitns you would have gone 8-6 ATS, which is not as signficant as I would have thought. However, we have looked back to 2015 in the Power 5. The logic here is early in the season there is more line movement due to uncertainty, and we feel you could get line value by fading the steam, which is made by irrational number of bets without rational information.
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There is a lot to unpack, and the fact of the matter is, fading steam moves in college football during the early parts of the season has been extremely profitable. Why? It makes logical sense to me. There is no way a line could move 3 points due to 99% of the players in college football, but it happens all the time. Fading line moves of 2-3.5 points vs. open in the Power 5 since 2015 has resulted in a 69-44 ATS mark, good for an outstanding 61% ATS. The tricky part is knowing when to play, and I feel like you need to wait for game day where public money comes into the market and moves these lines out of whack.
Fading the favorites in this situation has produced the best results. Fading a home favorite with a line move of 2-3.5 points in the Power 5 in weeks 1 & 2 has resulted in a 33-17 ATS record since 2015. Fading the away favorite in that same situation has reulted in a 9-6 record.
The other tricky part is when the line moves 4+ points, the overall record fading that steam is 11-20 ATS. This surprised me a bit, because the bigger the line move the more value fading it, but these could be games where you do have an injury or suspended player or just a really bad opening line and the books don't move it enough. Either way I'm paying close attention to those line moves of 4+ points in favor of home favorites. If you back those teams youare 16-6 ATS.
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Week 1 Watch List
I am tracking a few key moves in week 1 right now that I may jump on when a line hits, and depending on my additional research on these teams. However, I'm more about line movement and getting value than I am about the players early in the season, because that's all baked into the number. You as a sports bettor are not going to get an edge with the players these teams put on the field. You get an edge with the number, and getting the best number.
Notre Dame -7.5
Opened at 9.5, and is at 8 or 7.5 at many books, but remains at 9.5 at Bookmaker. 69% tickets and 79% of the money right now on Florida State. This falls into our plans of fading the under dog steam move, which the last two years has gone 11-2 ATS, and it won't matter if it moves more than 4 points, becuase fading the steam on a dog of 4+ points has gone 3-2. I doubt we see 6.5 here, but if a 7 pops up, with all the talk that Notre Dame is taking a step back, and the MIke Norvell hype at Florida State, it may be worth taking Notre Dame. This may be hard for me, because Mackenzie Milton may be the starting QB for Florida State, and that is just such a great story, and a guy I don't want to fade.
Northwestern -6 down to -4 and -3.5
Fade the away dog wiht a line move of 2-3.5 points in the Power 5 has reulted in 11-2 ATS mark the last two season. Value on Northwestern here, and when you factor in 77% of the very very early ticket and money counts are on Michigan State here.
Tulane +26
This would be tough to do, but you know you are getting value with the hype coming in with Oklahoma. Tulane is not a P5 team, but what we have tracked is P5 teams being involved in any game. The logic there is those are going to be the games with the most ticket counts.
There will be more. Since trackign this some teams have fallen off as the line has moved back in line with the open.
Notes to self: Break down records before 2015 if you can find the data. Break down the Group of 5 teams, and separate P5 vs. P5, and G5 vs G5, and P5 vs G5.
