RECAP LAST WEEK - 11-3 college football week last week. Unfortunately for many of you my newsletter play was a loser yet again making it 5 straight losers. Small sample, and we are still over 58% career winners. Since it’s been a long losing streak I”m going to be sending out 2 plays this week. I’m confident we will go 2-0. I’m looking forward to this week and have listed a Pro and college football package $99 for the week guarantee or 1 week FREE at freddywills.com. Over my 10 year career I have profited +118% in November, +140% in December and +43% in January.
Best Pick
There were many this week including Syracuse on the money line, but Baylor +10.5 as our play of the day was easily the best pick. I’m glad I didn’t play Baylor on the moneyline like I wanted to as they blew a 28-3 lead in the game. I just think they got conservative and couldn’t get off the field. This will likely bet he conference championship game as Baylor has a 2 game lead. I still am looking to fade Oklahoma as I’m 3-0 ATS this year doing so. This week they are back at home playing TCU as an 18 point favorite. Honestly, the way the defense has looked they don’t deserve to be this big of favorite. TCU has a good defense, and there are still issues with Oklahoma’s offense. We saw it just last week against Baylor, the best defense they had faced all year long. TCU’s defense has struggled with this offense in the past giving up 52, 38, 52, but that was to Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield twice. I still don’t see Hurts as a better QB Than those two and TCU’s offense has started to look good. The only issue I see is TCU seems to be the public play this week.
Worst Pick
We only had 3 losers last week. Missouri is the worst play and that is the pick that ended up in the newsletter, but really this game changed when Missouri dropped a pick six, and they had an interception in a 6-3 ball game that was overturned by the refs without conclusive evidence.
Bad Beat of the week
Texas Tech on the money line. Tx Tech lost by 2, but did cover the 3.5 and 4 point closing line. When I released the play I would have taken 3.5 and given it out to clietns if it was around, but there were only 3’s so I played the money line. The 3’s and 3.5’s would have covered. Unfortunately Texas Tech got down 24-3 in this game and trailed 27-16 at the half before coming all the way back to take the lead, but were unable to answer a field goal with 6 minutes back.
The bet I regret not making
I gave out more plays last week with lower % of bankroll plays. Felt like I had a strong feel for the card, but did not want to get too aggressive. I posted some leans that I didn’t play on twitter 3-5 ATS so I’m glad I did not play any of those.
MISLEADING FINALS:
Buffalo blew a 27-6 lead in the 4th quarter to Kent State during the week in MACTION. I was actually going to play the game and play Kent State, but I couldn’t get over the massive edge Buffalo had in the trenches especially running the ball which they did well with 245 rushing yards. The final was a bit misleading as Buffalo had +95 yards in the game, but failed to cover. People remember that big lead they blew which eliminated them from getting to the MAC Championship. They’ll face Toledo this week who is still alive to get to Detroit. Lean Toledo at over a TD. Toledo lost to Northern Illinois last week and also outgained them by 60 yards.
WISCONSIN beat Nebraska but they were out gained by 11 yards in the game. They won 37-21, but this game was a lot closer. Special teams really killed Nebraska and they essentially had 3 turnovers as they were 0-4 on 4th down. I mentioned on last week’s podcast that I thought Nebraska could make some noise down the stretch. This week they are a 4 point road favorite at Maryland. Not a situation I’m excited to back them in, but they do need 2-0 to get to a bowl game, and I think they may blow Maryland out as Maryland is already out of the bowl, and there is a major coaching mismatch here. Wisconsin a 24.5 point home favorite role and is in a major look ahead spot with Minnesota up next (winner to go to the Big 10 Championship game).
Indiana outgained Penn State by 91 yards, but they had 2 turnovers in the game and were ½ on 4th down while Penn State was 2/2. This was an even game, but worth noting Penn State had a major look ahead to Ohio State who they face this week as an 18 point dog, which is justified. Indiana facing another team this week in Michigan who is in a look ahead spot with Ohio State on deck and they get Michigan at home. Upset alert.
Auburn played this game scared, but they nearly came all the way back. Bo Nix missed a wide open guy on 4th down. Auburn essentially -4 TO margin as they went 1-4 on 4th down, and were -1 TO margin in this game. Georgia was Georgia got out to the 21-0 lead and just played conservatively. This is the reason they won’t beat LSU in the SEC Championship game in my opinion. Auburn was afraid in the first half and it was obvious. They refused to run Bo Nix, which I felt like cost them. In my handicap on Auburn I really thought they were going to be able to run the ball better, because of Nix. The team that runs the ball better in this match-up has won 10 of 11 of the last meetings. Auburn was held under 84 yards, but mostly because they passed the ball 50x. I didn’t understand the game plan for Auburn and that’s saying something considering they had an extra week to prepare. Auburn gets Samford this week before the Iron Bowl. I really can’t see Auburn beating Alabama the next week, but we will see what the spread is.
NC STATE OUTGAINED lOUISVILLE BY 51 yards, and lost the game by 2 TD’s, they also were +8 in first downs. However, NC State had 3 turnovers, and missed a 4th down try. NC State is a strong lean. NC State can still play physical defense, which Georgia Tech has not played well against. Georgia Tech is eliminated from a bowl spot, while NC State could win here, and then have an extremely meaningful game against their in state rival North Carolina next week. If they can take care of the ball they win the game, but that’s a big IF. I don’t know if I’ll get to the window or not but I definitely lean towards the NC State team at +2.5 and if it gets to +3 I could be a buyer.
Minnesota actually outgained Iowa by 141 yards, but lost by 4. Iowa got off to a quick start, and Minnesota went just 1-3 on 4th down. Minnesota however has everything left to play for. If they win out I think they are in the College Football Playoff with wins over Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State it’s going to be hard to keep them out. They get Northwestern this week who I think they blow out, but I”m not going to play it as it’s a major look ahead to Minnesota’s second biggest game of the year with Wisconsin. Iowa gets Illinois at home as a 15.5 point favorite. Illinois will probably win this game in some crazy fashion. They beat Michigan State and Wisconsin by winning the turnover battle and hanging around. I’ll pass, but I don’t see how you can back Iowa as a double digit favorites. 81% of the money on Tuesday night is on Iowa though and that’s what has forced this line to move from 12 to 15.5.
LSU beat OLE MISS by 21, and we covered the 21.5 pick we released, and I felt fortunate with LSU knocking on the door to end the game. Could have kneeled it out earlier but were running the ball, I was thinking Ed O. was going to punch it in just to stick it to Ole Miss, the University that fired him, but fortunately they decided to kneel. Ole Miss defense was gassed at the end of the game. Can we just talk about the #1 team in the country just gave up 614 yards to Ole Miss? I actually think this will give us value in the SEC Championship game backing LSU if that’s the route I go, but there is no way in hell LSU beats Clemson.
OTHER GAMES/NOTES:
Massive look ahead spot for Hawaii last week with Unlv. now they fly back home to face SD State, with a win they’ll go to the Mountain West Championship to face Boise State. A loss and SD State goes. Hawaii is a 3 point favorite, and the public likes San Diego State. Same situation last week with San Diego State against Fresno, which I didn’t get. Every time SD State faces a good offense they pull the game out. I don’t see anything different here unless I’m missing an injury or something. San Diego State has had a ton of success at Hawaii under Rocky Long. San Diego State has done well against bad defenses, which Hawaii is.
Texas A&M is a dangerous team this week. Last week they dominated South Carolina and looked like the team we hyped before the season. They were +280 yards in the game against South Carolina, and most importantly got the running game going 319 yards and they held a good South Carolina team to 45. They are a 13 point dog at Georgia, the same spot South Carolina beat Georgia. That may be the reason many are backing A&M here in the early going, but I’m sure the $ will come late on Georgia. Georgia is in a let down spot playing their biggest rival Auburn, and really have nothing to prove in this game. It could be a spot A&M catches them sleeping. Lean to the Aggies.
Michigan State hung around early but got crushed in the game 44-10. Michigan has a major look ahead spot of the week with Ohio State on deck they’ll face a frisky Indiana squad that just went toe to toe with Penn State. Michigan is a 9 point road favorite and I would lean to Indiana if it gets to 10. Michigan State a 20.5 point favorite at Rutgers. For what its worth Rutgers scored 21 points against Ohio State last week, but Michigan STate is still alive for a bowl game with Maryland on deck so I’ll pass.
Alabama dominated Miss State, and I got a bad number. I’m usually ahead of line moves but not here I gave out Alabama -20 last Tuesday, and it still won easily. Of course we know Tua is out, and I think we will get an Alabama defense that will step up. I think they get to the college football playoff with an impressive beat down of Auburn, where they will clearly need margin. I don’t like what I saw from Mac Jones at QB however, and I would not sleep on Tua’s brother coming in to save the day and Alabama’s season.
Navy vs Notre Dame - Notre DAme could not be stopped on offense, and they had great field position in this game. Navy just started out slow getting down 38-3 as they were just 5/16 on third down. I was really hoping for a Navy win, because I leaned Notre Dame but didn’t play it, and I think I like Army in the Army/Navy game, and if Navy beat Notre Dame we may see an inflated spread. Still plenty more opportunities for that as Navy can still get into the AAC Championship I believe. They’ll have SMU this week and although SMU is still ranked and Navy is not. Navy is a 3.5 point favorite.
Texas +7 was a free pick of the week and they covered at Iowa State. Texas plays Baylor this week on the road and is a 6 point dog, while IOwa State plays Kansas as a 24 point favorite. Baylor still has the Big 12 Championship game to play for, but I don’t really like how they choked that game away. Talk about a letdown. Texas lost at the last second to a very good Iowa State team, and are still alive to get to the Big 12 Championship. They need to win out, Baylor to lose out, and Iowa State to trip up once, which is not a crazy proposition. I don’t think it happens, but it should have Texas focus. Lean on Texas +6. I think these middle teams in the Big 12 are all pretty even. Texas is just always live for a back door cover. The weakness of Baylor’s defense is vs. the pass, and that’s Texas’ offensive strength.
Close with this. Utah & Oregon both are well aware of the spreads in their games, and are trying to get the attention of the playoff committee. It’s pretty obvious. They both covered the spread last week, and both will be getting inflated lines the rest of the way. Both are on the road. It’s a dangerous proposition when you are trying to run the score up. When is an upset possible in that situation? When you face a team that can score and play defense. Unfortunately both Arizona and Arizona State who host these two teams will be facing each other next week in their rivalry game. I’m sure this game has their attention, but I don’t think either team is capable of hanging in there. I will probably pass because the lines will be inflated. I think Utah has a better shot than Oregon to cover.
