RECAP LAST WEEK - Last week was the worst week of the season going 3-9 in college football, a card that I loved, and was so wrong on. This industry will humble you with all of that said if all I was worth was what I did in my last 10 plays then I Wouldn’t be worth much to anyone. That’s why I advize on season passes with all of my picks, I do win over the long term, and our bad luck that has spread over 3 weeks, is sure to even out. I’m not going to only blame bad luck, I do take credit and blame for the performance, but the teams I backed this weekend were -15 TO margin combined. That’s just tough to swallow as they turned the ball over a combined 24 times. Just ridiculous. Sunday I did rebound with a 3-2 ATS effort, but should have been 4-1, but we suffered our first lost of the season on my max POD as the Chiefs +5 fell late. I thought we were on the right side, take away McCoy’s fumble which led to Packers 7 points and taking the lead, and Aaron Rodgers prayer that was caught int he back of the end zone that I still feel like he was trying to throw away which was caught for a TD and we win the game. I also thought Andy Reid should have gone for it 4th and 3 with 5 minutes to go from mid field as they never got the ball back after.
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Best Pick
Tennessee +4.5, they win outright by 20 points. It was really the only good feeling I had on Saturday. This was a pick I added, and it was clearly the right side. It will be interesting to see what Tennessee does this week against UAB 10.5 point favorites at home, before their game against rival Kentucky. It’s a major look ahead, but UAB is playing great football against bad competition. UAB has a week to prepare for this game, and they have been covering spreads by more than 2 TD’s.
Worst Pick
Where do we begin? Let’s start with the MAX POD - Michigan State. They didn’t show up, I think they are done this program sucks. I thought at minimum they would make this a game.
Bad Beat of the week
Rice +9.5, 3rd or 4th and short, all Smiss needs is a first down, and the game is over, Rice sells out, and the RB goes for the TD. The funny thing is the RB’s from Southern Miss were going down voluntarily throughout the drive to keep the clock rolling. I run up to grab my son from a nap, and come back to see the loss.
The bet I regret not making
UCLA probably tops the list, but Oklahoma State and Louisville were on my lists, and they both won outright. I think I mentioned all 3 on my podcast last week.
MISLEADING FINALS:
Houston outgained SMU 510 to 385, but lost 34-31. Houston did cover the spread, and it was the first play I released last week. IT was a huge game for recruiting, and it was the one and only one I think Houston cared about the rest of the way. They were +1 yards per play in this game holding SMU to 5.2 ypp, 1.5 YARDS under what they had been giving up all year. Houston is a 23 point dog at UCF, which I think is justified. Central Florida has proven they are that team that will run up the score if they have the opportunity. Meanwhile SMU now in the dog role, at Memphis, where Gameday will be and that line has jumped 3.5 to 5.5 in favor of Memphis. Memphis the #24 team against SMU the #15 team and they are 5.5 point dog. No official lean really need to look at the matchup more.
Pitt had 5 more first downs, and were +114 yards in the game, but could not get the ball in the end zone settling for 4 field goals instead of any TD’s. We had Pitt in a teaser with Michigan, so this one really hurt. Pitt also had 3 turnovers in the game as well as 7 penalties. You have to give credit to Miami who made a 4th quarter switch at QB back to the freshman Jarron Williams that was criticized by the broadcast team. They easily went down the field and scored. Jarren Williams seems far better than Perry.
Oklahoma outgained Kansas State by 71 yards, but they lose the game as 23 point favorites against Kansas State, who was able to run all over Oklahoma in this game. Oklahoma could not stop them at all on the ground, while Kansas State got off the field several times. Wake up call for Oklahoma, and Jalen Hurts, did not look great as he made several questionable decisions. Oklahoma got their usual 9 yards per play in this one and held Kansas State to 5.8 ypp. Oklahoma on a bye this week then they have an interesting game against Iowa State on the road next week. I kind of think Oklahoma gets picked off again here this season whether it’s Baylor or Iowa State or Texas. Kansas STate is a 6.5 point favorite this week, and I would heavily lean with Kansas. Kansas a good running team which is Kansas State’s weakness. Oklahoma only ran 26 times in the loss and 19 of those carries were from Jalen Hurts, and at least half were not designed runs.
Illinois beat Purdue due to a couple of turnovers in horrible conditions. My algorithms laned Illinois heavily in that game, but I couldn’t pull the trigger as I thought it was a horrible situation for Illinois against a PUrdue team starting to play better. Purdue got 63% of the money, and Illinois won 24-6, for a third straight week Illinois is part of the misleading final report, as they were -3 first downs, and +2 TO and outgained by a yard in this game. Illinois a 20.5 point favorite against Rutgers this week, and Purdue a 3 point home dog against Nebraska that could be getting their QB back. No strong leans on either two.
Iowa State lost as a double digit home favorite to Oklahoma State, but they did have 16 more first downs in the game, but Oklahoma State did have +1.5 yards per play differential in the game and capitalized on 3 interceptions one thrown int he 4th quarter that gave Oklahoma State the 34-27 victory. Brock Purdy had an off game, and Oklahoma State’s offense showed up and took care of the ball which is the reason they won this game. That was the exact reason I didn’t want to back Oklahoma State. I was not sure they could take care of the ball, but they did in this game as Spencer Sanders had a great game as did Chubba Hubbard. Tough lost for the Cyclones who are now on a bye, and will host Oklahoma and Texas in back to back weeks. Oklahoma State opened as a 4 point favorite hosting TCU off a huge win, and TCU seemed to be the early sharp side with the spread dropping to 3. I probably won't’ get involved I’m still holding a TCU season win total over 7.5, which is still possible.
Nebraska outgained Indiana and was +0.7 ypp differential, but they lose the game by a TD at home due to 2 costly turnovers and a missed 4th down, while Indiana went 2/2 on 4th down. If you can predict who will win the TO battle and who can convert on 4th downs you can pretty much predict the winner of these games from an ATS perspective. It was good to see Nebraska have a balanced attack with 220 yards rushing and 294 yards passing against a solid defense in Indiana currently ranked in the top 40 with their backup QB. I think Nebraska is a bet on team down the stretch. Two issues have plagued them this year. They are getting just 50% red zone TD’s, and they are outside the top 75 in explosive offense. Last year they were 27th, this year they are 77th. Nebraska visits Purdue this week as a short favorite and will face another team that’s great in the red zone defense so I’m not sure this is the week to run to the counter to bet Nebraska.
Penn State dominated Michigan State on the scoreboard, but again Penn State has not looked great offensively. Just 302 yards in this game, +3 TO’s were a big reason why they won that game, along with Michigan State’s inability to do anything creatively on offense, while getting behind early really made them one dimensional. Penn State gets a bye, then they travel to play Minnesota next week in what will be a very interesting battle. Minnesota is a 6.5 point home dog for that game.
Buffalo outgained Central Michigan and won 43-20, but they only outgained them by 31 yards, and they were -0.2 yards per play. This game was closer than the final indicated. I leaned Buffalo, but didn’t look at the game after I saw all the injuries on both sides here. Buffalo was able to run the ball rally well in this game, and they have been excellent in the trenches, so I still think they are a back team if you can get them as a dog in a game where the running game is going to be the reason a team wins or loses. Buffalo playing with a backup QB, and will go on the road to face Eastern Michigan off a loss to Toledo in OT. EMU not very good at running the ball, but their run defense is excelent. Buffalo is a team I’d rather have at home, and they are a 1.5 point dog here. EMU is fighting hard to get to 6 wins, pass for me.
Tulsa +2 TO, +12 first downs, +86 yards, but they to Memphis by 1 point, after missing a short field goal to end the game. I have to question what they have left at this point and they have another tough opponent this week in Tulane, where they will be a double digit dog yet again. Tulsa did have a quite a few more plays in this one as they were -2.8 ypp differential. I don’t think I could back them this week although they might be the best 2-6 team in the nation. Memphis hosts SMU in the game of the week and have jumped to 6 point favorite. I”m not sure I agree with it only because Memphis has played many of these misleading finals against top teams in the AAC, including Temple, Navy, and now Tulsa.
OTHER GAMES/NOTES:
Clemson - I just have to bring it up, because it seems like they are hearing all the doubters and have gone out there to make a statement. Ever since the near loss to North Carolina. SAme thing last year and I talked about this on a previous podcast. After nearly losing to Syracuse last year they went on a run winning by 60, 34, 49, 61. They’re a 47.5 point favorite this week, and since North Carolina have won by 31, 35, and 52. They have NC State on deck who is not very good. I think they roll again this week, but I don’t know if I’m that tempted to play them against an FCS foe although the last three years they won 48-7, 60-3, and 59-0.
Another team I’m kicking myself for not betting was Colorado State, I got spooked because their starting QB was out, and you nver know how bad the back up is, but he threw for 322 yards 2 TD, and 1 INT in the game as Colorado State +14.5 won by 10 at Fresno State, I will continue to look to fade Fresno State who won 20 games ATS the last two seasons, and are struggling this year big time. Fresno a 1 point dog this week at Hawaii. Lean towards Hawaii.
USC barely got out of Colorado with a win after trailing by 10 entering the 4th quarter as a double digit favorite, they were able to outscore Colorado 14-0 in the 4th to win the game. One could argue it was a look ahead game to Oregon this week, where they will host the Ducks as a 5 point dog. I think this line is off and I lean with ORegon. First of all Oregon was a 3.5 point favorite at Washington, USC was a 12.5 point dog at Washington, which is telling you on a neutral field Oregon should be a 16 point favorite, or a 13 point favorite on the road. I think there is value on Oregon this week, question is can they handle the pressure?
Oregon nearly lost to Washington STate at home as a 2 TD favorite. I’m not going to over react. Washington State is a unique team that Oregon has had issues with in the past. The only thing that worries me about the USC game is that USC runs some of the same concepts in their offense as Washington State, as OC Graham Harrel has come from the Mike Leach system. Worth noting is that they did pick off Anthony Gordon twice, which is hard to do. I’ll probably pass the Oregon/USC game, but I do lean to Oregon. I came away very impressed the previous week when they went into Washington and controlled the game in the 4th quarter.
Northwestern could not get a score against Northwestern, and turned the ball over early putting them into a deficit in the 20-0 loss. I can’t believe how bad this offense is. I had a ticket for Northwestern +10.5, and on the money line this past weekend, and it was ugly as Northwestern went 0-4 on 4th down. They did have more first downs in this game, if their offense can at least pick up a few first downs they would be in games, because their defense is really good. Northwestern has faced an average YPP defense ranking 39.5 so that’s part of it. This week they face Indiana who is ranked 46th in YPP so it’s a bit of a break, but Indiana has been playing great football against weak competition so I do lean Northwestern +12 here.
