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RECAP LAST WEEK - Last week was a rough week going 5-9 ending our 5 week winning streak. We had three games that honestly I still feel like we were on the right side. Florida State losing by 1/2 point ATS, and Washington +3 losing by 1 point ATS, both had leads for most of the game that they blew, and then the Lions on Sunday blowing our teaser which they covered the entire game until Kirk Cousins hit a 60+ yard pass with less than 5 to play to win by double digits. Flip those three games and we sit at 8-6 +11.7% and a 6th winning week, but sometimes you lose games, and we are used to it, and always rebound that is why I'm keeping this package for those who did not get to take advantage of it last week. Those who did are enjoying the next two weeks of winning picks! You can get that package for
Best Pick
Air Force -3 over Hawaii as they won by 30 points for an easy late cover. I’ll be honest I didn’t watch the game. I capped it late, bc it was one of the many games I didn’t get to on the card, because I got food poisoning which knocked me out Friday night and Saturday. I really had only enough energy to look at a couple more games, and the NFL card, but this was probably the best pick of the week for college football.
Worst Pick
Wisconsin -31 on the road was on my card. It was a free pick that I gave out. I really didn’t think Wisconsin would look past Illinois team that nearly came back and beat MIchigan the week before, but they clearly did. I have felt for a long time Paul chryst is not a very good coach and to be honest this confirmed it for me. Now for those people who only get my free picks and were sending me funny emails.. I have been on a crazy run in free picks. 61-42 over my last 103 free picks in college. Now we are not on a good run right now 4-11 over our last 15, but these are my lowest confidence picks. They go on hot runs, and cold runs and right now if you want to stop playing these that’s fine, but that’s always the wrong time to stop. You always have to buy low, and sell high. This is a long term game, and I have proven OVER AND OVER that I know how to win long term.
Bad Beat of the week
I would not call either of these a bad beat per say, but Washington and Florida State held leads in their games, and we lost both by a combined 1.5 points ATS. We had the same issues last week, 5 of our losses over the last 2 weeks have been by a combined 5 points ATS. Coin flip games that we could or should go 2-3 or 3-2 went 0-5. Yet we are still turning a profit for clients.
The bet I regret not making
Baylor +4 was the biggest one I had wanted to play, and didn’t. I heard all week Mike Gundy off a bye, and Baylor missing their MLB, and every sharp and media square was on Oklahoma State, I wanted to play it SAturday as the line continued to climb in my advantage, but was a little bitch and didn’t. Same thing with Florida and Memphis the lines kept dropping, Memphis all the way down to -3 on gameday, they win easily, and same with Florida dropping from 7 to 3.5.
MISLEADING FINALS:
Arkansas State +6 was another play I gave out earlier in the week and was a tough loser considering Arkansas State 27 to 26 first downs, they were only -23 yards, and even in turnover battle and lose 37-20. This game was closer than the final score, but I did see an Arkansas St defense that just got worn down by the awesome running game of Lafayette. ARkansas State will host Texas State this week and the line has dropped 13.5 to 11.5, if it keeps dropping I may be a buyer on Arkansas State who is still fighting for a bowl, but no lean here as Texas State is also fighting for a bowl and has 16 days to prepare.
Fresno State beat UNLV by 29 points, but this was misleading, as UNLV was in this game it was a 4 point game with 2 minutes left to play in the half before they give up a TD to go down 11. Fresno was only +75 yards in this game, as UNLV turned the ball over 5 times. Fresno State remains on my fade list, I did not fade them last week, but there have been just 6 teams in the last 10 years to win 19 or more games ATS in 2 seasons, Fresno having won 20. Those teams are just 41-63 ATS 39.8%, the following year. Colorado STate +14 off a bye, fighting for a bowl game with a tough schedule is one of my favorite leans on the card this week.
Houston beat Uconn 24-176, but they were outgained in the game 154 yards, and actually won the turnover battle by 1. They were 3 TD favorites and didn’t cover the spread, but they shouldnt’ have won the game. It was tough for a TExas team to travel that far and play in the cold. This week they are back on a short week to face SMU at home on Thursday night as a 14.5 point dog. They could have been looking ahead. I actually think SMU getting too much credit now, on a short week traveling to play a team with just as much talent as they have. SMU just crushed Temple 45-21 and everyone saw it, but that was a tough travel spot for Temple, a team that has not played well on the road. So I think classic sell high buy low this week.
TCU was another favorite of many to beat Kansas State on the road as a 3.5 point favorite. TCU not a team I want right now as a favorite, but the loss was misleading as TCU was +100 yards, and +8 first downs in the game, but 0-1 on 4th, while Kansas State 1/1. TCU somehow is just a 1 point dog against Texas this week who struggled with Kansas, but last I saw Texas has a QB, and TCU doesn’t. You want to fade Texas now? Go ahead but I don’t, didn’t really do well for those who fade BC after they got upset by Kansas, and Texas was in a major flat spot following the Oklahoma game. It is a fishy line though that may keep me away as 71% bets are on Texas, but I’ll look deeper.
Tulsa outgained Cinci by 60 yards, but lose 24-13, but they did cover the enormous 17 point spread. They had 5 turnovers in this game and 12 penalties that cost them, but they should have won this game. TUlsa was a lean from my algorithims that I ended up not playing, but if they like Tulsa again this week they are a 10.5 point home dog to a Memphis team that crushed Tulane. Memphis also has SMU on deck so a major look ahead spot for them. Lean Tulsa.
Duke and Virginia was misleading in the total points scored 62, and Virginia winning as both teams combined for just 557 yards in the game. Duke had 5 turnovers in this game that Virginia benefited from. Virginia has a solid defense, but their offense just is not very good, and they’ll have to get it together against a hungry Louisville team this week and they are 3.5 point road favorites, I’m not so sure Louisville wins that game outright. I wouldn’t touch the total in that game, but if Virginia and Louisville score some points we may be looking at some inflated totals in the weeks ahead.
Michigan outgained Penn STate by 134 yards and were +12 first downs in this game against Penn State, but were 2-4 on 4th down, and couldn’t get off to a great start which cost them the game. Michigan is just a 1 point favorite against Notre Dame this week, and 68% of the public are on 8th ranked Notre Dame. I lean with MIchigan who seems to be getting the offense going. Notre Dame is over rated as well in my opinion. For Penn State, they now go on the road to play a physical team for the third straigh tweek, and they are 6.5 point road favorites at Michigan STate, who is off a bye. Spartans win this game outright! HOwever, I may wait for a +7 as well.
Tennessee loses to Alabama 35-13, they cover the spread, but what was more impressive was their defense in this game. I have questinos on how they show up the week after their biggest rivalry, but South Carolina just ahd a rough stretch too, and we are getting 4 points with Tennessee. This game was close it was 28-13 with Tennessee going in for a TD, and they fumbled the ball and Alabama returned to make it 35-13. Tua did get banged up in the 2nd quarter of this game so that was definitely part of all of this craziness, but I have been impressed with Tennessee, I just wish they would stick with and find a QB.
Other games/notes:
UCLA / Stanford - Stanford beat Washington, but gets blown out by UCLA, being outgained by 257 yards in this game. Stanford was with their third string QB, and it clearly showed. I don’t think I could get to the window with Stanford rest of the seeason they are too inconsistent. UCLA might be a bet on team the rest of the way. They had their best game they host #24 Arizona State this week as 4 point dogs, and this is a team that got some key guys back from suspensions, their defense looked completely different last week, and go up against an offense that is not particularly good. I don’t want to bet Herm as a road favorite, but UCLA has value right now and they need to win 4 of their next 5 to go to a bowl game. They have two extra days to prepare. UCLA is a strong lean this week for me.
Miami loses outright ot Georgia Tech. Tech was off a bye, and I can’t believe I didn’t look at this game with Geoff Collins and an under rated defense off a bye. Collins from his Florida days knows how to defend Miami. We know MIami’s offensive line issues, and it doesn’t get any easier this week facing a Pitt team which leads the nation in sacks and is among the leaders in havoc rate. The line is under a TD though and Pittsburgh is the home team with nothing ahead of them and an extra day of rest. I need to look into this, but PItt may be a great teaser candidate taking it down to pk, as Miami has Florida State ahead.
Purdue even in total yards with IOwa on the road as an 18 point dog. Purdue beat them the last two years, and Purdue still playing without their best two players. Jeff Brohm is a good coach and it seems as though he is just developing the other players on the team. Jack Plummer threw the ball 50 times, and only had 1 interception and 1 sack, so that impresses me. Purdue plays Illinois off their shocker this week at home as a 10 or 9.5 point favorite. I would have loved to get Purdue as a dog again instead no lean for me. Iowa goes on the road to face Northwestern as a 10.5 point favorite. Iowa has no business being a double digit road favorite against a good defense. Lean Northwestern. What have teams done the week after playing Ohio State this year? 4-2 SU 3-3 ATS.
