RECAP LAST WEEK - 11-6 ATS +8.2% for a 5th winning week in a row. $100/unit bettors are up over $5K during that time with a 53.67% ROI. We aren’t goign to change anything this week, another week we have another $99 package for pro and college guaranteed or 2 weeks FREE
Best Pick
Tennessee +7 i had mentioned I thought they could win the game outright, and they did dominating the game from start to finish the cover was never in question.
Worst Pick
Michigan State +10.5, did not show up, I don’t know if Wisconsin is just that good, but I don’t think they are I think maybe they got Michigan State at the right time coming off the Ohio State game, traveling on back to back weeks. But they do not have a QB, and they do not have an offensive line, or RB threat. Their only offensive guy Darrell Stewart who has a limited route tree. Michigan State gets a bye before hosting Penn STate, and if Penn STate wins again this week, I will be lookign to take Michigan State, I still feel like they will pull off one of those wins they aren’t supposed to.
Bad Beat of the week
We had 3 coin flip games with Iowa losing ATS by just 1.5 point, and Syracuse the same, each of which missed a makeable field goal that would have gotten us the cover, but the worst beat was Florida +13, who I felt played extremely well and led the game 28-21 in the 4th before getting outscored 21-0 to end the game. They turned it over twice in LSU territory in the redzone, still they had the ball on the 3 yard line 1`st and goal before running 4 bezare plays to end the game, I really thought they should have brought in Emory Jones to give the threat of a run, and then throw it, but I still trust Dan Mullen moving forward. Florida on the road this week as a 6 point favorite at South Carolina, who upset Georgia. Does Florida have anything left? That’s going to be the question all week, and I think they will be jsut fine. South Carolina lost their QB and had a huge upset. I think Florida is a definite teaser candidate at South Carolina, but need to look into the game some more. I do like the offensive mind of Dan Mullen vs. the defensive mind of Will Muschamp. Mullen is 2-0 winning last year 35-31 at home, and then in 2016, Miss State won 27-14 against South Carolina. South CArolina lost their QB Halinski in the game, and i don’t think the backup can throw much. Keep in mind it’s actually their third string QB.
The bet I regret not making
There were two big ones Navy and Temple. Temple won 30-28, and I would have played them had I Not missed the move earlier in the week 6.5 to 4 and even lower on game day. I loved Temple at 6 or higher, but after it moved and I lost # value I decided not to play it, and it didn’t help taht it felt like everyone was on TEmple which I also don’t like. Temple again over a TD dog. This time on the road against SMU who is off the bye. Temple has not been a good road team this year. Didn’t cover at Buffalo losing outright as a 15 point favorite, and lost ATS against ECU. This is also a further trip to the state of TExas and they have UCF on deck.
MISLEADING FINALS:
Miami won, but did not look good doing it against Virginia on Friday night. That offensive line is still pretty bad. They won 17-9, but that final was a bit misleading Virginia had 21 first downs to Miami’s 14, and outgained them by 53 yards, but had the 1 costly turnovers, and could not score TD in the red zone. We are probably getting value with Virginia this week as a short favorite 3.5 at home to Duke, but DUke came off a bye, and is very good as a dog, while Miami will host Georgia Tech as a 17.5 point favorite. PASS o both.
Miami Ohio was +2 first downs + 55 total yards, but lost to Western Michigan 38-16 on the road. They had 3 turnovers, and were 0-2 on 4th down, threw a pick six, and struggled in the red zone kicking 3 FG’s and 1 TD, and also missing a FG. Miami now a 3 point dog at home to Northern Illinois, but have high variance. They had a misleading win last week over Buffalo, this week a misleading loss. I’d rather just pass on this team. Western Michigan in my opinion continues to get over rated in the market and is a 8.5 point favorite this week to Eastern MIchigan off back to back losses. No play for me.
Georgia lost to South Carolina, but had 30-16 first down edge, and over 170 yards more on offense. Georgia went 0-1 on 4th down, and had 4 turnovers while South Carolina went 1-1 and had 0 turnovers. Rodrigo Blankenship also missed a field goal in OT that woudl have won the game. So lets just say what it is, South Carolina got lucky. South Carolina is now with their 3rd string QB after Hilinski got injured, and host Florida this week who looks like they got blown out against LSU. I think South Carolina is still not very good, and I think there will be value backing Georgia maybe not this week against Kentucky where they find themselves a 25 point favorite. I think they have everything left to play for.
Okahoma beat Texas, and Texas had more first downs, but they were fortunate to cover. Texas was sacked 9 times in this game, and were very lucky that Oklahoma turned the ball over twice deep inside TExas territory. I think Texas just came out and played poorly. Hidden in all of this because exas was outgained by 201 yards was how bad Jalen Hurts played. Texas clearly did not have the healthy squad to stop him, but I’m still not as high on this team with Hurts there. Texas this week a 21.5 point favorite against Kansas, lean Kansas, as Texas dreams are crushed. Yes, they can still get into the Big 12 title game and beat Oklahoma, but a playoff bid is gone.
Houston outgained Cinci who was in a let down spot after upsetting UCF. They were outgained by 30 yards in this game, but were fortunate enough for Houston to turn the ball over 5 times. Cinci now a 17.5 point favorite against Tulsa, a team that just nearly upset SMU, but got crushed by NAVY. I think that’s too many points
BYU did not play that bad losing 23-27 on the road to South Florida without their star QB Zach Wilson who remains out. They also lost their backup in this game Hall who is questionable for the Boise game. They were actually +124 yards in this game +9 1st downs, and +1 TO , and South Florida had 11 penalties for 105 yards. How did BYU lose this game? BYU went 0-3 on 4th down. Boise a 6.5 point favorite at BYU, with 71% of the tickets on Boise. If Hall is back I think BYU is the play. THere is no way Boise should be a power rated higher than Washington and USC who also both played at BYU. Lean BYU.South Florida is on my fade list still despite winning and covering their last two games. This week they are a 14 point dog on the road against a hot Navy team.
WAke Forest lost to Louisville, but they gave up a ton of yards in special teams. Not saying that should be misleading. I mentioned in my handicap when I gave out Lousiville as a play this past weekend there was a major advantage in special teams as Wake ranked 116th, and Louisville ranked 24th. Louisville’s defense gave up 668 yards, and they lost another QB in this one as both their starter and backup are questionable for the Clemson game. Clemson is 24 point favorite, and I think they’ll roll. Wake Forest has a bigger game against Florida State and they are only 2 point favorites. I need to dig deeper. I know Wake also lost their QB in this game, but I see absolutely no drop off from Newman to Sam Hartman. Lean Wake this week.
Other games/notes:
Michigan vs. Illinois, was interesting Michigan got out to the 28-0 lead, but Illinois fought back and pulled within 3 points early in the 4th quarter before MIchigan put them away for 2 TD’s. Just another red flag for Michigan in my opinion against a bad Illinois team, now they go on the road to face Penn STate, a team I’m not high on, but I may have to tease down to 2.5, because I don’t see anyway that MIchigan pulls off that win. I was hoping I would have gotten it at open when it opened at 7. Illinois on the other hand is a 31 point dog to Wisconsin. Illinois gave up 295 yards rushing to Michigan, a team that hasn’t beena ble to establish the run so now play for me.
Vandebilt lost to a bad UNLV team this is not on the miselading report, because they just got beat. I thought we would have a higher spread this week with a hot MIssouri team coming to town, but we don’t. 21 point is a lot but Vanderbilt just seems worn out, and I don’t think I could back them right now even though I think we are getting tremendous value.
Fresno STate remains on my fade list, they played a great first half, but Air Force dominated the game 28-12 first downs, _+154 total yards, as they were 4/4 on 4th down. After trailing at the half Air Force outscored Fresno 21-0 in the second half. Air Force finally didn’t turn the ball over. Air Force was my free play and I had mentioned that they had an 18% fumble recover rate, that will correct itself. Air Force is only a 3 poitn favorite at Hawaii. I will have to look at that game. I don’t think the trip to Hawaii will impact a diciplined service academy like it does other teams. Lean Air Force.
Army got their buts kicked by Western Kentucky, who has a good run defense. I want to see how ARmy bounces back from losing back to back games, but I think they will have value later in the season when they are dogs, which they certainly will be at Air Force in two weeks.
Iowa outgained Penn State 356 to 294, so this was close to making the misleading finals. Iowa struggled everytime they got on Penn STate’s side of the field and for the second week in a row turnovers were the reason Iowa lost the game. -2 TO’s otherwise they out played Penn State. Penn State did look like the better team throughout, I thought the refs were a bit lopsided in the game as Penn State was flagged 8 x fo r80 yards, but other than that I couldn’t take much from the game. Iowa now hosts Purdue as an 18 point favorite. Penn State we mentioned a 8.5 point favorite at home against Michigan at night, in a likely white out.
Notre Dame took care of USC, but USC got the back door cover. This was a pretty clean game and Notre Dame only outgained USC by 47 yards but led by double digits for most of the game. USC made it interesting late, and Clay Helton finally covered a game as a dog. Now 4-14 ATS. USC back at home facing Arizona as a 9.5 point favorite, too many points in my opinion, while Notre DAme gets the week off before going to Michigan in what should be a good game. I can only hope that Michigan gets lucky and beats Penn State so we can fade Michigan.
