RECAP LAST WEEK - 6-3 ATS in college +9.62%  2-3 in the NFL for a combined 8-5, but cashed in on both of my large POD’s and profited over 8% for a 4th week in a row we have been profitable 63% ATS +45% ROI.  I’ll keep the momentum going and offer the same $99 package for Pro and college football guaranteed profit or 2 weeks free. 

Best Pick 

We had a few comfortable wins this past weekend including Pitt, Florida, and Navy, but my POD had to be the best pick as Pitt +5 went up 26-3.  They then muffed a punt inside the Duke 5 that turned the game around, and Duke surged back to take the 30-26 lead, and missed a critical 2 point conversion.  Honestly you could feel the momentum, and I was disgusted I thought another bad beat was coming. But they drove with ease to score a go ahead TD and won the game 33-30.  Pitt had 14 penalties in the game, we have done well with PItt, but I think that might be it for me with this team. I would take Duke as an underdog later in the season as I like that this team fought in that game. This week they are a ridiculous 18.5 point favorite agaisnt Georgia Tech, but Tech really can’t be trusted as they don’t care about winning and all about establishing a new identity.

 

 Worst Pick 

Army + the points against Tulane.  Tulane did whatever they wanted on offense they had no shot at stopping the Green Wave.  Army did force a fumble and cut this to 9 with under 2 to play and nearly got the onside kick to come through the back door which would have been a fortunate cover, but that didn’t happen.  All week I was looking for something to tease this game with had it not gotten to 3, but I never found a game, and played this at +3 by buying the half point. Just a bad investment on my part, I under rated Tulane’s offensive ability and team speed. 

Bad Beat of the week 

I’d have to flip things to the NFL as we lost our teaser with the Titans whose kicker missed 4 field goals.  If he just goes 2-4 we cover the spread. He went 0-4 in field goals. College we were pretty lucky overral, although worth mentioning is my fortunate cover of the week.  I mentioned previously that I was waiting for one of these, and here it was, and it almost turned into a very bad beat. Temple vs. East Carolina, and I’m sitting on East Carolina +11.  This game is about over, and we are not covering, but then the lights go out at the stadium and we have a 20 minute delay. This changed everything, and East Carolina was able to put a TD in through the back door.  Then they recover the onside kick and I’m like shit.. Are they going to throw a pick six? They’re down 10 can’t win, but they throw the ball the guy’s forward progress is stopped and I can’t hear a whistle he’s going out of bounds and just tosses it Temple picks it up and runs it back and I thought I lost, but the refs say they blew the whistle and the TD doesn’t count. 

The bet I regret not making

There were many. Oregon State money line, Central Mich + the points

MISLEADING FINALS:

UCF vs. Cinci UCF had 4 turnovers in this game and I think 3 of them came deep in Cinci territory.  Cinci was great in red zone defense and it was party of my handicap when I gave itout as well as the fact that the QB situation at UCF was going to be the reason Cinci won and covered.  I was spot on, but it’s still misleading in the fact that UCF had 29 first downs to Cinci’s 18, and they outgained Cinci 423 to 341. However Cinci did outgain them from a YPP perspective 4.7 to 4.1.  Cinci is a 7 point road favorite at Houston this week, and are now in the top 25, usually a team doesn’t do so well once they get thrown in the back end of the top 25. Houston I believe was off a bye, so I lean with Houston.  UCF is on a bye this week. 

Miami outgained Virginia Tech 563 to 337, but lost the game 42-35.  I am not sure how much of that was when they were coming back from a huge deficit, but they switched to their QB Perry from last year, and he threw for 422 yards 4TD’s in this game.  Miami had 5 turnovers in this game and they also turned the ball over on downs another time. Miami is in a rare situation where they are playing at home against a ranked opponent in Virginia #20 and are 2 point home favorites.  Virginia is going to be a public dog for Friday night. I have to think the move to Perry and following a loss like that this team would be ready. They haven’t played a good game all year long. Virginia Tech will host Rhode Island this week as 25.5 point favorites. 

West Virginia outgained Texas,but had -3 TO’s in the game, while Texas, a beat up team had 10 penalties.  If anything I think this is giving us value with Texas this week against Oklahoma. They perennially struggle with their opponent the week before Oklahoma going 1-7 ATS.  This year they covered the 10.5 point spread. Previous years they struggled to get by Kansas Sate, and Oklahoma State before facing Oklahoma going 0-3 ATS adn 1-2 SU, but played right with Oklahoma with 2 5 point losses, and an outright upset last year.  I feel like a lot of sharps are low on Texas and I do plan on making money with them the rest of the year. My concern is their health right now which I will continue to monitor throughout the week. 

 

Ball State beat Northern Illinois, but Northern Illinois had 3 key turnovers, while they also committed 12 penalties and were 0-1 on 4th down in a game they led 17-3 at the half.  Northern Illinois outgained Ball State by 113 yards holding Ball State to 269, but now Ball State is a road favorite at Eastern Michigan setting up a classic sell high (Ball STate) bu low on (Eastern Michigan). 

Marshall lost 24-13 on the road as a 4 point favorite to Middle Tennessee, but they were -4 TO margin and just 2-6 on 4th down.  I think there is still value on this Marshall team, they outgained Middle Tennessee 578 to 401, and had 6 more first downs, were +1.1 yards per play.  Marshall is a 15 point home favorite against Old Dominion it might not be the week to back Marshall, but I may look that way anyway if I can get them under 14.

Louisiana Montroe  actually had 5 more first downs, and had 40 more yards than Memphis on the road, but didn’t cover the spread losing by 19.  They went just 3-6 on 4th down, and had 11 penalties for 114 yards in this game. I think Monroe is under the radar a bit still and I had them as a lean last week.  I will look to back them possibly this week at Texas State as a short favorite. Memphis has jumped to a 6 point favorite at Temple. I don’t know how I feel about that as Temple has extra time to prepare and they are usually pretty dominant as a dog. 



Other games/notes:

Iowa vs Michigan, honestly this game almost made my misleading column.  Iowa had more first downs, but not more yards they were-5 yards, but it was clear to me at least that they were the better team.  They just had a terrible day protecting their QB giving up 8 sacks, and forcing the ball down field into 4 turnovers, and they were 1-3 on 4th down.  They also had 8 penalties which is not a typical thing for Iowa. With all of that said they only lost the game 10-3. Iowa is a 4.5 point dog the line moved from 2.5, against mighty Penn State, who I simply don’t trust at this point.  Why? I go back to the Pitt game, and then the Buffalo game for Penn State. Strong lean on Iowa. Michigan is at Illinois this week as a 21.5 point favorite. Michigan is not a good football team, but they love to run it up against poor teams for which Illinois is.  I will look to fade Mich big moving forward and they play at Penn State the following week. If that spread is anything lesst han a TD I’m jumping on Penn State big. I can only hope Iowa upsets Penn State this week and Michigan wins big.

 

Texas Tech beats Oklahoma State and they should have covered regardless as a double digit home dog, but it took 5 Oklahoma State turnovers and 7 sacks.  Oklahoma State did not play well defensively either giving up 586 yards and 7.3 yards per play so this is did not make my misleading finals. Texas Tech has a big game at a  hot Baylor team and are 10 point dogs again. Interesting matchup, with these two coaches who both changing the philosophy of their programs, with Matt Wells at Texas Tech, and Matt Rhule at Baylor.  Baylor is just 3 years ahead. Oklahoma State, is a team I like and they can still make noise. They are on a much needed bye.

BC and Louisville I had a lean on Louisville and decided not to play.  This game was pretty even as both offenses looked great.  BC had 7.2 ypp compared to Louisville's 8.5 and put up 664 yards +101 vs. BC. BC may have lost their QB Anthony Brown for the rest of the season. 

Central Michigan definitely one of my bet regrets, as they completely dominated Eastern MIchigan 42-16 and outgained them by 302 yards.  Eastern Michigan is now a home dog against Ball State, who beat Northern Illinois on the road, and I would lean towards Eastern Michigan, while Central Michigan is a 10.5 point home favorite, which has been bet down from 12.5.  I definitely think the value is gone on the Chippewas.

Auburn/Florida is worth mentioning as this was an ugly game with 8 total turnovers, and 0-3 on 4th down.  Florida now goes on the road to face LSU as 13.5 point dogs, and initially I say that’s too many points for a coach like Dan Mullen.  I hope his team will learn from their awful performance, and even though we won and covered the spread we gave out to clients, I thought Florida should have won the game by more.  For Auburn and Bo Nix, they are overrated in my opinion, and lucky to be on a bye off what some may call a dream crusher. They will get Arkansas on the road next week followed by a season defining game at LSU the next.

 

Washington at STanford, someone please explain this game to me.  STanford +9 first downs, they were 482 to 294 in yardage, +1 TO, and I just don’t get it.  Washington was 4-1 ATS, and I backed off them this week and I was happy I did, but really thought Washington was going to start to take control of this conference and dominate. Washington a 6.5 point favorite at Arizona, who is coming off a big win at Colorado on the road themselves.  So they may be an early teaser candidate, but I wonder if Washington’s dreams are crushed now with 2 losses. I’ll have to dig into it more. I feel like Stanford will get too much credit for that win, but they are on a bye this week so we can’t take advantage of it.