Let's kick off the week here in MACTION. I will fade the line movement here today which is based on the fact that everyone is saying Northern Illinois is done at 3-7 and can't get to a bowl game etc, but this year they actually can at 5-7 with not a ton of teams contending for winning record seasons. I'm sure they know this, and they have been playing much better lately. For Eastern Michigan they have 6 wins likely heading to a bowl and very content and I think this is a step up in competition for them, because Northern Illinois is definitely improving at the right time which is what you want to see and in reality both these teams are 3-3 in conference play.
Eastern Michigan is definitely improved in all areas this year which was expected in a three year coach, but a closer look and really they are beting up on bad teams from the MAC East. They barely got by the worst team in the MAC West in Ball State, but otherwise they are 1-2 vs. the MAC West. On paper it looks like they have a massive edge in the passing game, but Northern Illinois has played much better lately. They have 6 sacks against two top 30 pass protection teams in their last two games and have forced 7 interceptions over their last 3. That's important, because Eastern Michigan while they have forced 21 they have given up 19. I think Northern Illinois can generate a pass rush here and force some turnovers.
Another thing I looked at was Eastern MIchigan's improved run defense allowing just 152.1 yards per game which is 48th in the country, but they are actually so bad against the pass 119th that nobody has bothered to run much on them. Just 3 teams all year with more than 40 carries against them where they went 1-2 in those games with their only win being against Bowling Green by only 3 points and BG was just awful at the time. Northern Illinois is 20th in the country running the ball from a YPC perspective and have 40+ carries in 7 of their 10 games. Northern Illinois will run their QB a lot which is tough to stop for EAstern Michigan who has allowed over 4 yards per carry in six straight games and likely will do the same here. If they don't win the turnover margin they will likely lose this game and that's what I am banking on based on recent results as Northern Illinois has protected the ball with just 3 turnovers the last 3 games while Eastern Michigan has 6 turnovers in their last 3 games. I think Northern Illinois is a proud team and they will want to win this game.
