This is a dangerous game for Louisville and I'm not so sure they can win or even should be favored so I'll take the FG with the home dog in the Carrier Dome where they are extremely dangerous. This year has been odd for Louisville in a bad way as their defense was supposed to struggle while the offense was great under Bobby Petrino, but it's been opposite and a lot has to do with the offenses they have faced in my opinion. Louisville is in fact ranked #2 in run defense, but they have not faced a top 60 unit and have faced an FCS school + 128th ranked run offense and 112th. No doubt those numbers are a bit skewed. Here comes Syracuse ranked #10 with multiple options in their running game including an elite running QB in Terrel Hunt. Hunt has struggled to pass, but back at home against an over rated Louisville defense should change. Syracuses losses have been against some very good teams in Notre Dame and Maryland, who is shocking many people already.
Syracuse defense also has the edge here in my opinion. Louisville is very uncertain at QB and they face Syracuse's 17th ranked run defense, but that's not what will get them the win. Their front 7 is aggressive as any and they'll get to the QB particularly at home. They forced Notre Dame into 5 turnovers last week on a neutral field and this week their 22nd ranked sack % team gets to face Louisville who is having all sorts of issues in the pocket ranking 118th in pass protection. To make matters worse for Louisvlle Syracuse has bene dominant in the red zone allowing just 38% TD's. While Lousivlle has also gotten to the QB it's been against some poor protection units and Syracuse is ranked 3rd in sacks allowed which is extremely impressive when you figure they have a mobile QB.
Fresno State has not looked good, but they faced USC, Nebraska and Utah to start the season. Now they get their second game in the Mountain West and it's against San Diego State who realistically has not faced anyone when you consider how poorly Oregon State and UNC have looked. Fresno State's pass defense has been the main issue allowing 17 TD's to just 1 INT, but when you face the teams of that quality you are going to have issues. They have also faced two top 10 rushing attacks along the way so this defense can only trend upwards. On Friday night they get a one dimensional team in San Diego State. San Diego State has just 2 TD passes and 6 interceptions and now they'll start a true freshmen on the road in Nick Bawden on a short week. Fresno has an extra day to prepare because they played last Friday. Fresno is stronger in the front 7 than they have shown and San Diego State is facing a 3-4 defense for the first time all year. Fresno has 4 returning LB's and an NFL caliber NT in Tyeler Davison.
Fresno's offense will give San Diego State's defense some issue with their tempo. San Diego State was holding up against UNC and then UNC picked up the tempo and created havoc. Fresno will do it all game and it's going to be something San Diego State can't prepare for on the short week with a young defense. San Diego State's strengths are stopping the run and running the ball which transition well on the road, but the offenses they have faced are NAU, 90th ranked rushing offense followed by 96, and 93. The defenses they have faced are NAU, 122nd, 57th, and 86th. The value resides with Fresno in this game and I"ll take the FG.
