We were on Kansas State’s big win over Oklahoma last week, but now they are in an interesting game which is very dangerous. First of all throw out Texas lack of defense last week against Iowa State. It can all be fixed and it was expected following their game against Oklahoma which is also their biggest rivalry. They will turn it around this week and Texas is the most complete defense that Kansas State has faced all year which is a concern.

Kansas State’s offense has looked great behind Jake Waters, but they haven’t faced a pass rush like this before. Texas is in the top 10 in sack %, opponent QB rating and passing yards per attempt. Their run defense has struggled a bit but is still top 45 in the nation and Kansas State’s ground game is not what it’s been in the past. Texas has shown they can dominate in run defense especially early in games and I think Kansas State will rely on their running game so much that it will shorten the game and give Texas a chance.

Texas has a chance because the offense has dramatically improved behind Tyrone Swopes who is off back to back solid performances against better passing defenses than Kansas State. Kansas State could win the Big 12 but they won’t because of their pass defense. Part of the problem is they are 124th in sack % and 84th in opponent QB rating. For what it’s worth Kansas State only beat Iowa State by 4 while Texas only won by 3. I think Texas is not as far away as we once thought. Both teams also played Oklahoma similarly.

Georgia Tech +3 4.4* Play (3:30pm ET)
Pitt is off a big win that looks less impressive seeing how bad Virginia Tech has looked over the past few weeks. Pitt is one of the youngest teams and they will be a bit high on themselves following a win and that won’t help when they have to face Georgia Tech’s triple option rushing game. Nobody can stop the triple option it seems and while Pitt’s run defense has been very good this year they have only faced 1 team ranked in the top 50 in rushing offense while Georgia Tech is top 10 in yards per game and yards per carry and it’s a unique unit they haven’t really been used to facing. Georgia Tech put up 297 yards on them last year and this unit is less experienced.

Meanwhile Pitt is doing a great job of running the ball also, and Georgia Tech has not been able to stop any running teams. Georgia Tech has faced 4 teams in the top 40 in yards per carry as well as North Carolina’s running QB. Georgia Tech will prove to be just too much as Justin Thomas can throw the ball too and they are converting 59% on third down and 71% in the red zone which will be the difference since Pitt has allowed 73.33% TD’s in the red zone this year.

Oklahoma State -1 4.4* PLAY (3:30pm ET)
West Virginia played their game of the year beating Baylor by 14 as a +8.5 home dog while Oklahoma State lost big to TCU a team who choked against Baylor the week before. How in the hell is Oklahoma State favored then? Well Oklahoma State has won 6 of their last 7 home coming games, and they are 22-2 in their last 24 home games. Despite how well West Virginia’s defense played a week ago they still ranked 105th in sack %, 91st in yards per carry allowed and 75th in yards per play. This is a different team on the road allowing 516 yards per game.

Oklahoma State was the ranked team last year playing on the road against West Virginia when the Mountaineers pulled off the upset. Oklahoma State is being underestimated here based off of one blowout loss against TCU on the road. Oklahoma State nearly beat Florida State to open the season at home 37-31 which is impressive since they are one of the youngest team in the nation playing the defending champions. Oklahoma State can do a lot of things well and that will typically keep you in ball games with a chance to win.

Oklahoma State’s run defense is the key. In their wins they have held opponents to 3.11 ypc and 5.17 in losses. Given the fact that West Virginia is only averaging 3.46 on the road and 5 of the 6 run defenses they have faced have kept them under their own ypc allowed gives me confidence that Oklahoma State will be able to do the same and keep this game in control. West Virginia may start to press and they are -11 in turnover margin on the year where Oklahoma State has notoriously held a big advantage in forced turnovers.

Michigan +17 2.2* Play (3:30pm ET)
Rivalry game here and Michigan State has Ohio State next. These players will fight for their coach and they have an extra week of preparation. Michigan’s defense is playing out of their minds when you consider how bad the offense has been. They are 11th in yards per play allowed and 6th in yards per carry and 28th in sack %. This is the best defense Michigan State has faced considering they haven’t faced a past rush unit in the top 50 before, and they have only faced 1 top 50 run defense. Both games they struggled to run the ball they were held to 27 points as they fell apart late against Oregon and nearly lost against Nebraska. Michigan has been bad and they may lose this by 50, but there is too much value in this rivalry game and I bet the Wolverines come out with a little passion and cover the spread because their defense has been solid all year.

Where to find Freddy?