I see more value taking Arkansas and teasing them, but I will play Arkansas as a free pick for a small play here.
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I'll take Arkansas here because they are going to be able to win in the trenches. Arkansas played the #5 hardest schedule this season which pretty much came with playing in the SEC West, but this team was pretty damn competitive against some very good opponents including Alabama. Texas just does not have a dominating ability to run the ball or stop the ball and Arkansas defense is very under rated. Arkansas run defense will be the key here and in wins they have allowed 2.59 yards per carry to 4.50 in wins. I don't see Texas being able to run the ball well in this game as they have been inconsistent all year long.
The way you beat Arkansas is with a good passing team. LSU could not do a thing, because their QB could not take advantage, but the teams they lost to on the schedule all had capable passing attacks. From Auburn, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Miss State and even Missouri can be hot and cold, but in this game we can not trust Tryone Swopes. This defense shut out LSU and Ole Miss and I look for them to really keep this Texas team in check. More importantly Texas was +9 turnover margin in wins and -10 in losses while Arkansas was negative turnover margin in just 2 of their 12 games. They ranked 28th in field position advantage while Texas ranked 114th. Texas had one of the worst special teams in the country and that should play a huge factor in a game that is figured to be low scoring. I expect the field to be tilted in Arkansas favor all day long.
Georgia -1 - Seems like a square play here, but.. Just who did Lousiville beat this year? Notre Dame when Notre Dame had all kinds of issues, but on paper these teams are closer and the sharps are grabbing Louisville for their defense. I just can't see Louisville beating an SEC team. Georgia did have an easier than normal SEC schedule, but it still was more challenging than Louisville's schedule. Georgia has just as good of a defense and in fact in adjusted opponent rankings they have a top 25 offense and defense. The only other team they faced that can claim that is Florida State who they got to face on a short week before they had solidified their running game. Georgia can run the ball and throw the ball and are by no means one dimensional. Louisville has Devonte Parker who is a next level talent at WR, but without him this offense struggled. Georgia and its coaching staff are clearly capable of taking away that weapon.
Finally Georgia has a big advantage in field position advantage ranking #1 this year and 11th in special teams efficiency while Louisville was 109th in field position and 88th in special teams. Combine that with the fact that Georgia only turned the ball over 11 times all year compared with Louisville's 23 and we have an excellent shot at Georgia winning. Remember Louisville played a lot of bad offenses this year. Miami is the second best offense they faced and they faced them week 1 with a freshmen QB which is completely different than what Miami was at the end of the year. Georgia has Huston Mason a senior QB with a chip on his shoulder, and 2 elite RB's who averaged over 6.5 ypc
