LA Tech / SMU Over 70 3.3% play
I would originally leaned towards the value of SMU here, but with Dykes coaching that is out. I actually like the total a lot more when looking at this. These are two teams known for their offenses, with balanced offensive attacks playing in Texas with good weather. Both defenses also have big weaknesses on defense and even thought he total is high at 70 I like the over.
SMU has not faced a lot of top defenses, and they won't here either. They have faced just 3 teams in the top 85 in yards per play defense (LA Tech ranks 77th), but even in those games they averaged 34 points per game. That came against TCU, one of the best defenses in the country, Arkansas State (41st ypp defense), and Houston who has the most dominant defensive player in the country. LA Tech really doesn't have any of that nor do they have the defensive coaching staff to come up with a brilliant game plan to stop a very good SMU offense that is probably better than the FAU team that scored 48 on them. SMU ranks 15th in yards per play offense, but they also rank 27th in QB rating, and 29th in yards per carry for a very balanced offense.
Louisiana Techs' offense was down this year compared to previous years, but they have an offensive coach in Skip Holtz. Holtz has been very good in bowl games and this offense was still pretty balanced and shows no weaknesses ranking 64th in passing yards per game and 54th running. Each of the last two years this team put up 47 and 48 points in bowl games. Now he's going up against the worst defense they have faced all year. LA Tech has faced 7 teams in the top 85 in yards per play defense. This offense has faced a lot of defenses that are better than SMU. The two times they faced a team similar to SMU they put up 42 points in each game. I am expecting another game for LA Tech to score in the 40's.
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