Marshall/Colorado State Over 58 3.3% play
I originally leaned Marshall out of Conference USA, but Colorado State has faced a far tougher schedule. There was no way I could back Colorado State given their struggles during bowl season and down the stretch of the regular season. The last 3 years in bowl games they went 0-3 SU & ATS missing the spread by 67 points combined. Meanwhile, Marshall is 10-1 SU & ATS, but Colorado State has an extra week to prepare for this game.
That led me to the total, and in bowl games I would tend to lean towards the over. Tackling is sure not going to be at a premium in some of these lower level games. The weather is also setting up to be very nice 50 degrees with less than 10 mph winds.
When looking at these two teams they are both coming off some unders giving u value to the over. We also have two teams very unfamiliar with each other playing in different conferences. I think that benefits the offenses and speaking of offenses Marshall has not faced an offense this good all year long. Colorado State can run the ball ranking 27th in ypc. Marshall only faced 2 teams in the top 50 all year and they scored 30 and 28 points. Colorado State can throw the ball ranking 12th in QB rating. Marshall again only faced 2 teams ranked in the top 30 in passing offense and they gave up 41 and 28 points. Colorado State goes up against the 15th ranked rushing defense which leads me to believe they will put together a game plan with more passing which typically leads to higher scoring games. I could see Colorado State scoring 40+ points with future NFL WR Michael Gallup having a great day. This is an offense that put up 52 points on Boise State a few weeks back and Boise has a very balanced defense.
For Marshall's offense the key is whether or not they get the running game going. IN games where they have 130+ rushing yards they average 29.4 points per game. In games where they don't they average 17.75 ppg. Marshall also has special teams capability with Keion Davis who took two kicks back for 6 in 1 game. They will face a Colorado State defense that struggles to stop the run. They gave up 130 yards rushing in 9 of their 12 games and rank 104th in rush defense. To me there are a lot of things pointing to both of these teams getting into the 30's or more and with a total of 58 I like the over.
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