Navy +4.5 1.1% Free Play
I think we have good value here on Navy running the triple option. Houston gave up 300+ yards to this Navy option last year and their run defense has been worse this year. They are giving up 1 yard per carry more against the run, and there offense is also worse than last year scoring a TD less.
This game is also pretty meaningless for Houston who is already in a bowl game. The game doesn't mean much for Navy, but they are the road team and will be more focused. Navy also plays hard every game, and recruits in Texas a lot so the game in fact is more meaningful for them. I think Navy can really dominate the time of possession as they are #1 in the country at over 36 minutes while Houston ranks 95th. Navy's defensive weakness is against the pass, and that's not something Houston is doing well this year so I think they can actually pull the upset here. They don't have a look ahead either with the Army game still a few weeks away.
