Miss State -14 -120 buy 1/2 - 3% Play
I get that this is Ole Miss bowl game, but I think they are a very flawed team. It's obvious that their head coach Matt Luke is not coming back, and that this team is in a tough situation following a game against Texas A&M where they finally played a bit tougher competition. Now this is an even bigger step up playing their hatred rival, but Miss State is poised to play their best game as well and I like the match-ups in this one. Miss State also fighting for a win here and a win in their bowl game to get to 10 wins. Their only losses were against Auburn, Alabama, and Georgia so they have had a pretty challenging schedule.
Ole Miss is ranked 119th vs. the run in terms of rushing yards per carry allowed. Now they have faced 3 teams in the top 31 and have given up 40, 44, and 66 points in losses. Miss State is ranked #24 running the ball and also have a mobile QB. The last time they faced a mobile QB it was Alabama and they gave up 66 points as Jalen Hurts ran wild for 101 yards on only 10 carries. So that is strength vs. weakness which favors MIss State who has also won big against the average to good teams. With the exception of Arkansas last week. That actually gives us some value and if you can't get -14 at -120 odds I think you are still safe. Against Arkansas they got off to a horrific start down 14-0 after a fumble return for a TD and they won 28-21. However, that was on the road and off a tough game against Alabama that they let slip away. Here they are in a much better spot in my opinion to win and win big.
Ole Miss is a one dimensional offense that really hasn't faced a lot of top passing defenses. Their back up Jordan Ta'amu has looked good, but it started to show last game against a good defense. A&M ranked 66th vs. the pass and can also get to the QB. A&M shut them out in the second half and that was in their own building. Miss State has the #33 passer rating defense and is top 10 at getting to the QB. They are even better on defense at home and this is a night game as well where Miss State is even better. I think they'll be focused to get out to a good start considering how they left their last game. This is a completely different challenge for the Ole Miss QB and Ole Miss is already -8 TO margin. I expect Miss State to get out to a fast start which should create an issue with Ole Miss motivation. If we get to the half and they are down don't expect much effort from this team late. I can see Miss State scoring in the 40's and holding Ole Miss in the 20's. Don't fall into the trap of taking the dog in this rivalry game.
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