Toledo will bounce back here on the road against an awful Bowling Green team. Toledo gave up 38 points on the road against Ohio last week in a meaningless game for them. They win out and they return to the MAC Championship game which I believe they will. For Bowling Green they have gone 2-8 to this point and have lost big against the conference best teams, 31 to Northern Illinois, 18 to Ohio both games at home. This team has not played well at home at all. Their road games have been a completely different story.

Toledo's defense is the key here, because we know the offense will score against a Bowling Green defense that's the worst in the MAC. I expect they will play much better. There have only been a couple of teams that scored more than 21 points on Toledo before last game, and all of them had mobile QB's. Tulsa, Miami, Nevada, and Ohio all have mobile QB's. Bowling Green does not have a mobile QB.

Line value we are certainly getting line value here at 17 points, because of how Toledo looked in one game against Ohio. Toledo has held conference opponents to 16 points per game before the Ohio game. Bowling Green is averaging just 23.6 on the season and I think Toledo will have a good game plan to win this one easily even without their RB Terry Swanson. Logan Woodside and Swanson's backup should have a field day against this offense that is allowing 5.55 ypc in conference play, 5.61 at home along with a 141 QB rating. Bowling Green has faced only 1 team inside the top 60 in QB rating and that was in their last game against Buffalo. They allowed Buffalo to pass for 406 yards 3 TD's and 0 INT's. Buffalo was ranked #35. Toledo comes into this game ranked #4. Toledo should also win the turnover battle here. They have only lost it 3 times this season, and have 9 total turnovers on the season compared with Bowling Green's 23.