Missouri has covered the spread 5 straight weeks, but who have they really beat? They covered it by 27.5, 26.5, and 33 the last three weeks alone, and faced Idaho, Connecticut, and a troubled Florida team with an interim coach. Here they get Tennessee who I realize is in a similar situation as Florida, but it seems like this team is fighting a bit for their coach. Missouri is also facing a much better pass defense and we are getting over 4 points of line value here.
Missouri has averaged just 14.5 points per game when facing a top 60 pass defense and that includes their 28 point outburst in garbage time against Georgia. Tenn comes into this game with the #36 pass defense which should keep them in this game. I also like the fact that they have better special teams than Missouri, it was something that really killed Florida a week ago. Watch out for Ty Chandler int his one as he could make an impact for the Vols.
A couple other factors I Like is Tennessee's ability to run the ball and eat up clock with John Kelly. They also haven't gotten blown out in any games with the exception of Georgia & Alabama, who are ranked #1 and #2 in the country. Their losses were 3, 6, and 6 points otherwise, and they are still fighting to get to a bowl game. Missouri also -9 TO margin this year as Drew Lock is prone to making stupid throws at times. Tennessee should take advantage as they are +3 in TO margin.
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