Washington/Stanford Under 48.5 1.1% Play

My numbers favor Washington, but Stanford is a tough team to go against at home as a dog.  They are 7-0 ATS the last 7 times as a home dog with 6 outright upsets and 3 times they were featured against a top 10 team like they are tonight.  However, Stanford's most glaring weakness (run defense) is Washington's biggest strength.  At the end of the day I expect Stanford to game plan for that, and this game has been circled on their calendar since their loss last year 44-6.  That doesn't mean they win the game, but I expect this to be a defensive battle. 

Stanford's offenses outside of Bryce Love has been just miserable.  Love is a big play guy and can be contained.  What I like about this match-up is that Washington is #1 in big plays allowed and have given up just 3 plays over 30 yards and 0 plays over 40 yards.  At the end of the day Washington will force KJ Costello to win this game.

Also worth noting is each team likes to run the ball well above 50%, in fact Washington is running it 66% of the time over their last 3 games.  They rank 111th, and 129th in pace.

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