Navy -4.5 1.1% Free Play
Navy is off 3 straight losses, but two have been against top 25 teams Memphis, and Central Florida and the third against Temple who had an extra week to prepare against the triple option with a defensive minded coach. SMU just fell to Central Florida at home by only 7 points where they gave everything they had. I expect a bit of a hang over here on the road against a Navy team that is desperate for a win.
This would normally be a premium play, but it's hard to tell if Navy is distracted this year by the Showtime Series following them around. The -7 TO margin is the big reason why they are not undefeated at this point, but they still can run the ball, and SMU has really struggled to stop it. The last two years SMU has given up 16 rushing TD's and nearly 1,000 rushing yards in 2 games against Navy in 31-75 loss, and a 14-55 loss. SMU has given up 200+ yards five times this year and that is against teams that throw the ball 50% of the time or more. Here Navy should get their 400 control the game and get out with a 7+ point win. I actually don't even think SMU will be able to stop Navy and force a punt. This one could get ugly.
