Eastern Michigan has had a bit of a tougher schedule and have lost a lot of close games. I initially leaned with them, but after looking at it more I noticed Central Michigan far more dominant passing and defending the pass vs. the 4 common opponents. Central Michigan faced 3 of 4 of those opponents on the road while Eastern Michigan faced 3 of 4 at home.
Considering both of these teams like to pass the ball and that's how they score their points I like the under because that is the strength of each of these defenses. In Central Michigan's last 4 games they have allowed 0 passing TD's 52% completion 418 total yards and forced 2 interceptions. Against those same 4 opponents Eastern Michigan allowed 5 TD's 1 Interception and 62% completion rate. On the flip side Eastern has been better against the run against the common opponents allowing 3.96 ypc while Central Michigan has allowed 4.7 ypc.
There is value to the under with each team playing in overs in their last two games. Both teams have struggled in the red zone and have defended the red zone well with under 60% TD percentage on defense and offense.
This game means more Eastern Michigan who needs a win in each of their last 3 games to go bowling, but Central Michigan needs 1 more win as well, and is at home with the extra day to prepare. I think Eastern is the better team, but it's a tough situation for them and I expect a close fought low scoring game on a cold night with temperatures at 34 degrees.
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