Indiana +14 3.3% play +420 1% play
There is value in this line because Indiana lost at Maryland last week. Indiana actually outgained Maryland 483-345 and had 35 first downs to 18. The good news is Indiana's defense was only on the field for 18 plays which is the key to upsetting Wisconsin this week which I do feel like they have a shot. Indiana has been close a few times this season. Even their game against Ohio State to open the year was 21-20 late in the third quarter before Ohio State took over and they did it with 2 big plays. Wisconsin is not a big play offense, and are also used to playing in tight games.
Indiana might be without their QB Peyton Ramsey, but Wisconsin also could be without their best offensive player in Johnathan Taylor at RB. Indiana has a senior QB to fall back in on Richard Lagow who passed for 410 yards against Ohio State. Wisconsin plays a similar defense with the man to man and I think if Lagow is out there it will be a benefit for the offense. Indiana definitely has a guy on offense that can take the game over in Simmie Cobbs at WR. ON the flip side Wisconsin has not faced a single unit in the top 70 in passing offense. Indiana is not ranked in the top 70 either, but I think they are capable of playing better than their ranking with Lagow in their especially for the passing game.
Wisconsin is going up against a very under rated run defense here. Indiana is ranked 35th in the nation, but this unit keeps them in games. They held Penn State to a season low 39 yards on the road to put it into perspective. Wisconsin is 19th running the ball, but they have faced just two top 50 running defenses. Those games they won by 9 and 8 points respectively, but both at home. This game on the road and really reminds me of Northwestern vs. Wisconsin. The difference in that game was an INT returned for a TD, and a safety. Indiana has a lot of similarities to Northwestern defensively especially and are a bit better on the offensive line from a blocking perspective.
It helps that Indiana is in a bit of desperation mode here needing 3 wins in their final 4 games. Tom Allen is a very good coach and in each of the two games this year they that they lost by more than 14 points they were misleading finals. Against Ohio State we mentioned, and Penn State only outgained this team by 18 yards. Wisconsin has the added pressure of being ranked #4 in the AP poll, but out of the college football playoff picture. Just think this is a one possession game. Indiana will have a shot to pull the upset like they have against Michigan State, and Michigan.

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