Houston +11 3.3% play
Houston has extra time to prepare for this game as they played last Thursday night. They will be the best defense that South Florida has faced and it's not even close. Yes Houston ranks 58th in yards per play but they faced 4 top 30 offenses and held them all to season lows before Texas Tech only scored 13 a week ago. They held Memphis in check for the first half and blew a 2nd half 17 point lead proving though that they can contend with any team in this conference. They have played a far tougher schedule and their win over Arizona earlier this year looks even better right now.

South Florida scored 33, and 34 the last two weeks against 97th ranked defense and 119th ranked defense. I realize Tulane got a back door cover, but Tulane really missed on so many opportunities early in that game moving the ball for 405 yards and 6.29 yards per play. Also proving that the South Florida defense is vulnerable. South Florida's defense has not faced anyone that can move the ball yet and while Houston is no juggernaut they can stay within this 11 points. As the season progresses the pressure is going to continue to weigh on South Florida and this is just one of those games where I'm taking the better defense. South Florida's offensive line is ranked 104th in adjusted rank and now they go up against Ed Oliver who can single handily win this game for Houston who ranks 32nd on the defensive line.


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