Texas +9 3.3% Play
The Red River Rivalry is a must win game for Oklahoma after they lost last week as 30+ point favorites. Under Bob Stoops they were 28-0 after a loss, but Lincoln Riley after going up to Ohio State and defeating them as a TD dog has struggled in back to back games now. Baylor hung in their game against Oklahoma and torched that pass defense, and then after Oklahoma had a bye they gave up another big day in the air to Iowa State who started their back up who had only attempted 2 passes and was a walk on as Oklahoma went down. Now many are going to rush to back Oklahoma, but I would say hold your horses.. No pun intended.

Tom Herman vs. a ranked opponent and as a dog has been outstanding. Dating back to 2012 where he was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State he's been a dog 11 times and has gone 11-0 ATS winning outright 10 times. The only loss this year at USC by 3 points in OT as a 17 point underdog. Herman, beat this Oklahoma team last year with Houston as a double digit dog and he had his defensive coordinator Todd Orlando with him. Orlando is already improving this defense in a short period of time. They went on the road on a short week and held Iowa State to 256 yards, 4 yards per play on a Thursday night and just 7 points. The same Iowa State team that just put up 38 points at Oklahoma with 449 yards and 7.61 yards per play.

No doubt about it here Oklahoma has the better defense, but it will be interesting to see as these teams are very familiar with each other in this rivalry. Todd Herman and his staff also familiar with Oklahoma from last year. I expect Oklahoma to struggle a bit here, and I expect Texas offense to start to catch up with the defense now that they have made the switch to Sam Ehlinger.

Ehlinger made a start at USC and threw for 298 yards against the #20 defense. He made the start last week against #29 ranked passing defense Kansas State and he had 380 yards passing and added 107 yards. Ehlinger made a couple of rookie mistakes vs. USC that cost them that win, but he's definitely the better fit for this offense as he's also mobile. He is now going up against Oklahoma ranked #89 vs. the pass and I expect Texas to score to put themselves in position to win. At the end of the day we still don't know what Lincoln Riley is as a coach. The Ohio State win was impressive, but the last two weeks have not been. Especially when you consider you had a bye before Iowa State. Many times Herman has been a double digit dog and has pulled the outright upset. Texas has been close in previous years with far worse coaching wouldn't be shocked to see it here.


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