Minnesota +4 2.2% play 3:30pm ET
I believe we get great line value here with the Gophers following their loss as a double digit favorite last week at home to Maryland who just out played them in the trenches running the ball and stopping the run. I'm not so sure that will happen against them here again this week. The Gophers do have an advantage in the trenches. I think Minnesota can methodically hold onto the ball and control the clock in this one. Purdue has stopped the run, but they have not created enough negative plays to force Minnesota into third and longs. Minnesota defensively is strong up front and can push Purdue into a one dimensional offensive attack. Purdue already throwing the ball more because they have had issues running the ball and they could be without their leading rusher for this game.
Purdue's QB David Blough clearly not 100% dating back to the summer with shoulder injuries. He says he's feeling good and he'll get the start, but at some point he's going to struggle. I see Brohm throwing a lot here considering Minnesota has all of a sudden come down with injuries on defense especially in the secondary where they will be tested. However, this team was thin in their bowl game against Washington State as huge under dogs and the secondary played great limiting Washington State and pulling the upset.
Minnesota's defense should still play well here and if they can get the early lead like I believe they can considering Purdue is without 2 starters for the first half in this game (targeting) then Purdue will be forced to pass in obvious situations. That's never a good thing for David Blough who is very much prone to turning the ball over which could be the difference in this game. I also like the advantage we have with Minnesota's kicker going 4-5 form 40-49 yards out while Purdue is using 2 kickers for a reason and have yet to connect on a FG longer than 38 yards. We get some good line value in this one because of Minnesota loss and I wouldn't be shocked to see them bounce back with a victory here.
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