Florida State -7.5 +100 3.5% play
This is Florida State's game to get back on track. Florida State's offense has looked awful so far. The offensive line has been very bad protecting the QB so far. Now keep in mind they faced two of the best defenses in the country to start the year. They also had to deal with the time off and it was evident that they were rusty last week against NC State. This week they will face Wake Forest who is 125th in getting to the QB with a 1.52% sack rate. I think James Blackmon could have a big game here. Blackmon might be a better passer than Francois and he is definitely a better leader. Blackmon actually gave the pre-game speech before the Alabama game to open the year. Listen, if Florida State wins out they are still in the college football playoff.
Wake Forest on the other hand has played above and beyond what was expected. They come into the game 4-0 and 3-1 ATS while Florida State is just 0-2 ATS. Definitely getting some line value here in this spot. The last two years the spread was 23.5 and 18 and this Florida State team was supposed to have their best team of the last 3 years coming into the season. Wake Forest has had some misleading wins let's go over them.
Wake Forest beat Boston College 34-10 as a pk and won by a margin of 24 ATS. However, in that game they only had 309 yards of offense and were +4 yards vs. Boston College. They were lucky enough to be +4 in turnover margin along with a pick six. BC also has not looked good this season at all. BC's defense is ranked 79th allowing 5.7 yards per play, but were able to hold Wake under their season average with just 4.35 ypp.
Last week against Appalachian State they were lucky to hold on with a last minute missed field goal. We gave this out as a premium play and it was a winner at +6. Appalachian actually dominated the game +150 total yards in the game, but struggled in the red zone with just 2.86 points per trip inside Wake's territory. Worth noting before that game App State was struggling big time on offense and still are ranked 89th with 353.7 yards but were able to manage 494 yards in that game. This should be a very good sign for Florida State's offense to have a breakout performance.
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