Nevada +28 3.3% play
Washington State in a big look ahead spot having to face USC at home next week. Washington State is notorious for coming up short in big games and if this was a road game I wouldn't be afraid to bet on Nevada on the money line. Nevada lost to Idaho State last week at home, but it was mainly due to turning the ball over as they outgained them by 40 yards. Washington State beat Oregon State by 29 points, but only had +137 yards in the game in a very misleading final.
The bottom line here is Nevada is an improved team compared to last year. We are getting value here as Nevada had a crazy lost to Idaho State as a 34 point favorite. We have seen an improved Nevada team show up in the first two games where they had a lead late at Northwestern. They lost to a very good Toledo team and had only -40 yards. Nevada also runs a 3-3-5 defense that can be confusing for QB's and although Luke Falk may just be fine I could see him struggling in the red zone. This defense held Northwestern & Toledo to 50% combined in red zone TD%.
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