Ball State +7.5 3.3% play
This is the third week in a row we are fading Western Kentucky. Once for our POD vs. Illinois an easy winner. Last week we took LA Tech +225 as our dog of the week and it was a winner. Now Ball State visits Western Kentucky as over a TD dog and we will continue to fade Western Kentucky and this coaching staff.

Ball State has QB Riley Neal, a big tall QB who is completing 67% of his passes and has 6TD's. This is actually the best QB Western Kentucky has faced all year. Ball State actually played significantly better against Illinois and did so on the road where Western Kentucky had them at home. Ball State was +159 yards and should have won that game while Western Kentucky was -66 yards.

Overall Western Kentucky lost a ton on offense from a year ago including two NFL WR's. Western Kentucky is off a deflating loss to Louisiana Tech. Western Kentucky's stats paint a serious picture. They were +108 ypg vs. what their opponents gave up last year. This year they haven't exactly played tough defenses and they are averaging -165 yards per game compared to what their opponents give up. The coaching staff is the biggest difference. Just look at what Jeff Brohm is doing at Purdue. Meanwhile, Mike Stanford has his hands full and his OC and DC are first timers. For Ball State, Mike Neu is in his second year and is not new to being a head coach. He was a QB coach for the Saints 2014 & 2015. He was an AFL coach of the year back in 2004 where he spent 5 years as a head coach. His assistants OC, Joey Lynch is in his 4th year running this offense, and DC David Elson is in his 6th year as a DC. Advantage Ball State.

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