Texas A&M +4.5 3.3% play

This play is all about line value and we have it with the Aggies who were 5 point favorites a year ago.  Granted I understand this game is at the Rose Bowl, but nearly a 10 point move is really crazy and it is all factored into the hype of Josh Rosen.  Rosen played in this game a year ago and he did not look good at times throwing 3 interceptions.  He missed most of last year and I don't know how he is supposed to be the savior in his first game back against a senior laden secondary.  Remember, UCLA could not run the ball last year ranking 126th in ypc and were extremely one dimensional.  Those are bad ingredients vs. a Texas A&M team that typically is ranked in the top of the nation at getting to the QB even without Myles Garret.  

On the flip side we have A&M coming into this game with less returning starters 12, compared to UCLA's 15.  The loss at QB is one many will highlight, but I don't think it is worth many points.  When you take a look at Nick Starkel he should be able to do things with his arm that Trevor Knight could not.  I also expect to see the true freshman Kellen Mond who has dual threat capabilities.  Starkel can spin it and he has two former top 10 WR recruits to toss it to including 1st team All-American Christian Kirk.  RB's Trayveon Williams, and Keith Ford offer balance which is something we don't believe UCLA has.

Josh Rosen may very well go out and have a great game, but I think it will be difficult considering he's on his 3rd offensive coordinator in 3 years.  We have seen many examples of new coaches, new systems, and struggles early in the season when this is the case.  I just do not see how UCLA could be favored by this much and the SEC is 9-2 vs. the PAC 12 over the last 6 years.  Oregon has been the only PAC12 team to defeat the SEC and that was with Marcus Marriota.  I see A&M coming up with several big stops in the red zone and this game should be decided by a FG.  Both coaches are on the hot seat and need this to propel their season.  Kevin Sumlin is used to winning in September. 


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