Purdue +24.5 3.3% play
Louisville might be peaking ahead to the following weak against North Carolina here which will be a conference game.  Meanwhile it was very evident that defenses started to figure out Lamar Jackson down the stretch as they lost their final 3 games and managed just 19 ppg over that span.  Jackson is back of course and I expect the Heisman slump in 2017 with only 4 returning starters on offense compared to 9 a season ago.  They lose their top 3 receivers, top rusher and the OL which allowed 47 sacks a season ago will have issues again. Louisville is 7th in the conference in their recruiting class and I don’t expect them to match last year’s offensive numbers.  Purdue’s defense will be better this year returning 8 starters, and their strength is at LB which should help containing Lamar Jackson.

Meanwhile Purdue’s offense is definitely trending up with Jeff Brohm taking over as the head coach.  Brohm did some amazing things at Western Kentucky even after losing QB’s to the NFL he has become a bit of a QB whisperer.  He should definitely help QB David Blough cut down on the turnovers which will make a world of difference for this team.  Blough, a bit of a gunslinger was the #38 QB coming out of high school.  Brohm, also very familiar with Bobby Petrino’s offense as he was Petrino’s OC at Western Kentucky.  I do think that will benefit the dog, and it also helps that Petrino knows Brohm and is friendly.  Even if Louisville is up big it leaves a back door cover and I don’t see Petrino running it up against a friend especially with two ACC opponents on deck. 

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