Oregon State +4 4.4% NCAAF POD


The first match up of the 2017 season falls between Pac 12 and the Mountain West.  Both teams are really in similar situations as you have Oregon State and Gary Anderson in his third year while you have Colorado Stateâ??s Mike Bobbo in his third year.  Bobbo and Colorado State have gone to back to back bowls and really lit it up down the stretch.  They come into this game with a ton of hype with their new stadium, and how they finished last year and all that tells me is that we have an inflated line.

Colorado State returns 14 starters while Oregon State returns 15.  The 2 and 5 year recruiting rankings are in favor of Oregon State 43/49 to 69/79 so Oregon State should really be favored and when you look at the front lines of both teams I love the value we are getting here with Oregon State.  The Beavers have improved each of the last two years on offense and defense and I think itâ??s finally time for them to take the next step and get back to a bowl game.  Their offense improved by over a TD last year and they return both Nall and Pierce who both averaged over 5 yards per carry.  Along with the RBâ??s they return 3 QBâ??s with starting experience, but in this game they can really lean on the run.

When you look at both teams they are very good at running the ball, but very bad at stopping it a year ago.  Oregon State #32nd in running the ball while Colorado State was #24, but Colorado State faced only 4 teams in the top 50 in stopping the run while Oregon State faced 7.  Defensively Oregon State faced 4 top 30 running teams on their way to struggling ranking 90th.  Colorado State was not any better at 91st andt hey faced just 2 teams in the top 30.  They gave up 200+ yards rushing 9 times last year and Oregon State went 4-0 when they could run the ball and control the line of scrimmage.

Both teams come in with their most experienced teams in three years.  I like what Oregon State has along the defensive line and I see them improving more as they return all of their starters on the defensive line and add in Michigan State/JUCO transfer Craig Evans who is a330lb linemen.  Compare that with Colorado State who on paper have 3 returning starters, but lost 3 defensive tackles and a DE.  Depth is definitely a factor here. 

You also have to handicap the fact that Colorado State will face Colorado the following week their instate rival.  They definitely canâ??t help but look ahead to that game that means a lot more than this game.  Oregon State has a tough schedule and would love to start the season 2-0 with Portland State on deck.   Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Mountain West (losers to Boise last year) and in case you are wondering the PAC 12 IS 49-17 since 2010 against the Mountain West while outscoring opponents by 13.4ppg.  In fact they have averaged over 34 ppg each of the last 4 years.


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