Since the 2007 season teams that are coming off a home under as a dog now playing an opponnent as a favorite all lines are 18-44-2 ATS. That's the position Toledo will be in on Saturday. I'm much more impressed with Florida Int. schedule thus far than I am with Toledo. FLINT as I like to call them has faced Alabama and Rutgers. The story is that they haven't been able to run the ball, but both Rutgers and Alabama are top flight defensive teams, particularly against the run. note that Toledo is giving up a ton of yardage on defense. I'm going with the home team and the team tha tis more aggressive and that is FLINT. FLINT will sell out on defense to get to the QB and that's what they will do as they got to both Alabama and Rutgers with some big plays. They had 4 sacks and 9 tackles for loss vs. Rutgers, and vs. Alabama 1 sack and 5 tackles for loss. This is a similar match up to the Glass Bowl last season where FLINT beat up on Toledo 31-17 as FLINT has nine starters back on both sides of the ball. Toledo played Ohio State and so they are not strangers of strong competition this year, but I'd still take Alabama well over Ohio State. SR. QB Aaron Opelt was terrible when he was under constant pressure under Ohio State's strong defensive front. That's one thing I expect to come from FLINT at home is a lot of pressure. Expect FLINT to play their best football in their first home game of the year with road games on the radar in the Sun Belt vs. ULM and Western Kentucky this game means much more to FLINT than most realize. I just am impressed with the defense and put more value on that than a team that can put up points but not play defense.

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