I'll live and die with the Rutgers I'm 1-2 ATS playing with them this year, but I think we have a goo situation here between two teams that on the service look very much similar. Let's start with the trends first.
UCF is 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Big East proving once again they just can not match up with the talent in the Big East. With the exception of Cinnci int he 1st game of the year Rutgers has been able to play in each game. Rutgers is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Conference USA. UCF is 13-27-1 ATS in their last 41 non-conference games.
If you haven't watched Rutgers the last two weeks they have a new running threat in Mohammed Sanu out of the wild cat which has worked extremely well. I'm not buying UCF's run defense ranked 5th because they face a lot of teams in the conference USA that don't run at all as they faced an average rushing attack ranked 91st. So I think Joe Martinek and Sanu will get what they want in this game on Saturday night.
Many are thinking this is a home game for UCF and they may be right, but also note that this is a big recruiting game for Rutgers and Greg Schiano is 3-0-1 ATS in bowl games and this is their 5th bowl game in 5 years. I also like what Rutgers did when they had extra time to prepare as they beat a team that almost mirrors this UCF team in South Florida. With extra time Rutgers took care of UCF 31-0. S. Florida has similar offensive and deffensive numbers to UCF and we all know South Florida is better. It won't be that easy for Rutgers though as the offensive line that is ranked 112th in sacks allowed will go up against the best 1-2 tandem in the nation in Bruce Miller and Jarvis Geathers combine for 23 sacks. However, I think UCF will have more issues offensively than Rutgers because Rutgers have plenty of offense despite their rankings as they have those rankings against a much stronger opponent out of the Big East.
UCF has played just two solid defenses in the top 25 in Miami and Texas where they scored a total of 10 points. The defense falls off significantly after and overall they played a 78th ranked defense compared to Rutgers who faced 53rd ranked. Rutgers is a top notch defense and leads the nation in turnovers forced so look out. Rutgers will have to force a turnover or two in a low scoring game. I think they do in this one.. The only reason why I think this spread is not a bit higher is the fact that UCF's offense started clicking at the end of the year scoring 34, 49, and 37, but note that came against awful defense ranked 108, 103, and 112 in total defense where as Rutgers ranks 19th.
